The wonderful world of blogging becomes far more intense the moment the regular season in the National Hockey League ends.
Every armchair manager, every closet GM, every wannabe coach in the blogosphere finds a method of disseminating their private thoughts in the most egocentric way possible. Not unlike what you're reading here, to be honest.
Regardless of my blog use and that of my compatriots who love hockey like no other nation, it is of interest to me that each site I navigate dispells completely different theories of whom will successfully pass the first hurdle: the conference quarter finals.
Sociology teaches you that, whenever a certain aspect or function of life interests you, you must select several important variables to add or subtract weight to your theory. In the case of the Stanley Cup playoffs, it's any number of seemingly obscure statistics, historical references and nostalgia. Biases often get in the way despite the fact that it's completely illogical to posture with your heart. Unless, that is, we're in the middle of a Walt Disney fairytale.
The Stanley Cup tournament is anything but. It is a war of attrition waged on the bodies of the players who take part. It is a brutal and often times bloody battle for supremacy and every player from age 19 to 40+ knows exactly what is at stake.
In all likelihood, each fan has selected a team to win the Cup and most of it is based on geographic location, family allegiances, or a favourite player. What they haven't done is stop, look, and listen. At the risk of sounding like a primary school teacher (which I am) I'd like to stop the prognosticating, look at the numbers, and listen to what my fellow bloggers are saying, starting in the East and then moving out West.
Let's begin with Capitals vs. Rangers.
Tsn.ca's Scott Cullen has picked the Capitals to win in seven games. He's cited Washington's injury concerns and immature goaltending. The Capitals are deep though, and immature goaltending got Niemi a ring last year. He says that the Rangers have Lundqvist as a major advantage, and that the Capitals are easily frustrated offensively. The Rangers have been anemic offensively, he also explains, meaning that it's an even series all around. TSN's pick: Capitals in Seven.
Sportsnet.ca's Mike Brophy feels that there are too many concerns around offense, defense and goaltending to truly consider the Capitals as contenders. He feels that the Rangers have Lundqvist and the Swede will shut down the big guns.
Sportsnet's pick: Rangers in Seven.
At Hockeybuzz.com, Mike Augello has looked a little bit deeper at the numbers. He cites goals against as one of the most important factors, noting that the Capitals conceded 197 goals in the regular season, while the Rangers conceded 198. Not much to separate there. The Rangers actually scored more goals in the regular season than the Capitals, due to quiet seasons from all of Semin, Backstrom, and Ovechkin.
His pick: Capitals in Six.
The Capitals are still the overwhelming favourites going in. So what gives here? Isn't this still the 1st seed facing the 8th seed? Isn't this Ovechkin's chance to play a two-way game in the playoffs and finally banish a few demons? Let's factor in that the Rangers have been playing playoff-style hockey for a while now, just trying to get in to the post-season dance. Let's look at who has the edge:
Star power: Capitals.
Goaltending: Rangers.
Coaching: Rangers (Tortorella has won a Cup).
Offense: Even (Callahan injured, Capitals are healthy, Rangers scored more in-season).
Defense: Even (Capitals are NOT healthy at the moment).
Home ice: Capitals.
Motivation: Capitals (They need a win more than the Rangers do).
Overall: The Capitals have home ice, which could be big for them. I think the Capitals are more motivated and have matured due to playoff failures in the past few years. They truly buy in to Boudreau's system, too.
Matt's new and final prediction: Washington in Six games.
Next series: Flyers vs. Sabres.
TSN's Scott Cullen says that without Pronger, and with shaky goal tending from Rookie Bobrovsky and side-man Boucher, it's not looking good for the Flyers. Even though they've got depth, they can't compete with how hot the Sabres are right now. The Sabres don't have the four solid lines that the Flyers have, but they are on a 16-4-4 run to close the season, and they beat the Flyers twice in that time.
TSN's pick: Sabres in Seven.
Sportsnet's Mike Brophy is citing the same problems as Cullen, but is counting Pronger 'in' and not truly buying in to the Flyers having a goalie issue. He does claim that Miller could steal the series for the Sabres.
Sportsnet's pick: Flyers in Six.
Mike at Hockeybuzz says that the Flyers 'limped' into the playoffs. It's true that they have been decidedly lacklustre since losing Pronger. Some of the older D-men have been losing their edge lately, which could possibly be due to their age and the sheer number of games they've played in the last 18 months.
Mike's pick: Sabres in Six.
Star power: Flyers.
Goaltending: Sabres. The Flyers have three goalies, two could start, none proven.
Coaching: Even. Laviolette has won a cup, but Ruff is a wily veteran.
Offense: Flyers.
Defense: Even. With Pronger, it's the Flyers.
Home ice: Flyers.
Motivation: Flyers, but the Sabres blow-up last year means they have a score to settle.
Overall: The Flyers have more a stake here. They have a better team on paper, a more experienced team and have playoff performers on every line. The Sabres have come into the dance extremely hot and knocked off the Flyers twice on the way in. They have been playing playoff style hockey for over a month now and appear ready to take on all comers. Philly has home ice, could get Pronger back, and are motivated to get back to the big dance because of what happened last year.
Matt's new and final prediction: Flyers in Six.
Next series: Boston vs. Montreal.
TSN's Scott Cullen says that this is a series of contrasting styles, and that the Canadiens have no hope of competing physically. He feels that the Canadiens aren't deep, but have solid playoff performers on their top two lines. The Bruins, he feels, aren't offensively explosive but do boast a deeper forward line. Two great goalies going head to head is also great to watch.
TSN's pick: Bruins in Six.
Sportsnet's Mike Brophy: Brophy points to the long history of upsets on the Canadiens side. He feels that this season, Boston is better placed to win the series this time around. Chara is his X-factor here, so effective at shutting down Montreal's undersized attackers.
Sportsnet's pick: Bruins in Six.
Mike at Hockeybuzz feels that the Bruins need to stay disciplined, and if they do it's all over. Chara could be considered for the Norries, he says, and Thomas has been otherworldly, despite the fact that Price has been excellent too.
Mike at Hockeybuzz's pick: Bruins in Five.
Star power: Bruins.
Goaltending: Bruins.
Coaching: Even.
Offense: Bruins.
Defense: Bruins. Have you seen Chara?
Home ice: Bruins.
Motivation: Bruins. They have choked, Montreal made it farther than expected.
Overall: This is looking one-sided, and it won't be. The Bell Centre in Montreal is going to be an intense place to play two or more games. However, people in Boston will be hungry for Bruins success and know this team is very, very good. The Bruins simply need to stay disciplined as mentioned by some of the experts above.
Matt's new and final prediction: Bruins in Six.
Next series: Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay.
TSN's Scott Cullen says the obvious: that Crosby is a big miss for the Pens. He also says that the new additions (Neal and Kovalev) haven't been as great as they had hoped. He feels that Tampa Bay's offense is looking good but that they are suspect on the back end and in goal.
TSN's pick: Pittsburgh in Six.
Sportsnet's Mike Brophy notes that these two teams aren't separated by much in the standings -- a mere three points, in fact. He also notes that they both entered the post-season on a good run: Pittsburgh was 8-2, Tampa Bay was 7-3. He feels that it's too much for the Pens to do without Crosby and Malkin, and that Stamkos is the man to watch.
Sportsnet's pick: Tampa Bay in Six.
Mike at Hockeybuzz feels that it is not about who the Pens have lost, but who they have as personnel. With Kunitz, Kennedy, Staal, Letestu filling in, and Fleury playing very well in goal, it's not all bad for them. He doesn't see Crosby back on the ice competitively until October, though. He doesn't think that Tampa Bay will be able to play well enough defensively in front of Roloson because they haven't been able to do that all season.
Mike's pick: Pens in six.
Star Power: Tampa Bay. (Lecavalier, Stamkos, St. Louis, vs.....Staal?)
Goaltending: Pittsburgh. Roloson seems to like the playoffs, but Fleury is a winner.
Coaching: Pittsburgh. I'd vote Bylsma for the Adams.
Offense: Tampa Bay (247 goals in the regular season).
Defense: Pittsburgh. (Tampa allowed 240 goals).
Home ice: Pittsburgh.
Motivation: Pittsburgh.
Overall: It would appear that the Lightning got here by having mercurial offense, but their defensemen have been average at best. I don't expect them to find another level. I do see the Penguins as a much more cohesive unit that can play with explosive offense when needed, and collapse into a solid defensive line too. The key could be special teams, with Tampa's power play looking very, very good.
Matt's new and final prediction: Penguins in Seven.
So that's the East! Let's see what author has the best predictions at the end of the first round.
How about the wild, wild West? Does anyone else here a Will Smith song in the background?
Sorry, obscure pop-culture reference. It happens to me.
First series: Vancouver vs. Chicago.
TSN's Scott Cullen feels that Vancouver has depth that no other team can match. All four lines boast talent, their defense is the best in the league and finally healthy, and they have Luongo in goal.
TSN's pick: Vancouver in Seven.
Mark Spector at Sportsnet.ca has picked the West. He also cites Vancouver's depth, and their desire to finally beat Chicago.
Sportsnet's pick: Vancouver in Six.
At Hockeybuzz.com, Matthew Barry is a Kings blogger that previews the West. He feels that if any series smells of an upset, it's this one. Last year, Philly would have been out of the playoffs if Olli Jokinen had made that shootout goal. They backed in, and went to the finals. This year, it's Chicago's turn to do the same, and they have the leaders to do it.
Matthew at Hockeybuzz's pick: Chicago in Six.
Star power: Even. (Sedin, Sedin, Luongo, vs. Toews, Kane, Keith?)
Goaltending: Vancouver. (Luongo vs. Crawford isn't a comparison).
Coaching: Chicago. (Quennville has been here, Vigneault is great though).
Offense: Vancouver.
Defense: Vancouver.
Home Ice: Vancouver.
Motivation: Vancouver.
Overall: In my mind, this series is Vancouver's to lose. If they lose a shocker in game one, or if they split the opening series and lose one in Chicago they could panic and start to re-hash old scenes of previous playoff exits. If they stay calm, play their own game and don't let Toews completely take over the entire series: it's theirs.
Matt's new and final prediction: Vancouver in Six.
Next series: San Jose vs. Los Angeles.
TSN's Scott Cullen says the Kings have lost too many players and can't properly replace them. Their defense is still young and inexperienced at this level, and Jon Quick is good but not great just yet. He also thinks that San Jose is just about as deep and talented at all three positions as anyone.
TSN's pick: Sharks in Five.
Sportsnet's Mark Spector feels that Niemi just needs to be sharp, and it'll be a cruise for the Sharks. He also feels that they have been slowly building to this playoff year and that they're a dark horse to be reckoned with.
Sportsnet's pick: Sharks in Five.
Matthew at Hockeybuzz probably doesn't want to vote against his boys, but feels that the Sharks are far too good. He thinks that they got the best draw they could have had going in, and that they're looking to go deep.
Matthew's pick: Sharks in Four.
Star Power: San Jose.
Goaltending: San Jose.
Coaching: San Jose.
Offense: San Jose.
Defense: San Jose.
Home Ice: San Jose.
Motivation: San Jose.
Overall: This is the easiest series to pick, and could be the only one that goes for a sweep at the end of the day.
Matt's new and final pick: Sharks in Five. Not to be a 'copy cat' as I'd love to pick the Sharks for a four game sweep. I just think that the Kings have some fight in them and Quick could steal a game for them. Not to mention if Doughty and Johnson grow up, Penner gets real? Could be interesting.
Next series: Detroit vs. Phoenix.
Scott at TSN feels that it'll be hard to start the series without Zetterberg, but the Wings will compensate. He feels that the Coyotes have one major advantage in Bryzgalov, but that it'll end up the same way as last year.
TSN's pick: Wings in Seven.
Mark at Sportsnet.ca seems to feel that with Detroit succumbing to injuries and slumping down the stretch that they are there for the taking. He also feels like it could be Phoenix's time. They were 10-3-3 in their last 16 games, and that the Wings only won 21 games at home this year, meaning that home ice advantage doesn't have as big of a lift for the Wings.
Sportsnet's pick: Coyotes in Six.
Matthew at Hockeybuzz doesn't provide any analysis or reasons why he feels Detroit will win, but attempts to cite a lack of home atmosphere for hockey in Phoenix. He thinks the Wings are overrated and despite that, they've still got the personnel.
Matt at Hockeybuzz's pick: Wings in Six.
Star Power: Detroit.
Goaltending: Phoenix.
Coaching: Detroit.
Offense: Detroit.
Defense: Detroit.
Home Ice: Detroit (they amp it up in the playoffs).
Motivation: Phoenix.
Overall: This is a tough one to call. I'd love Phoenix to win, because I think the Wings are dreadfully boring and I'm sick of seeing them in the same fold every single year. I think they have the personnel to do it though, and Phoenix is going to have to play fast, tough, smart, and stay disciplined. If Bryzgalov can steal a game or maybe two, they could pull it off.
Matt's new and final prediction: Wings in Seven.
Next series: Anaheim vs. Nashville.
Scott at TSN feels that this is another contrast in styles, as Anaheim boasts the offensive flair that Nashville lacks, whereas the Predators make up for it with defensive solidity and excellence between the pipes. He feels that Anaheim has Emery and Hiller, and that's just about a match for Nashville. He does feel that Anaheim has too many forwards for Nashville to cover all the time, and that's the difference.
TSN's pick: Anaheim in Six.
Mark at Sportsnet.ca seems to think that Anaheim has loads of uncertainty between the pipes, with Hiller out and Emery day-to-day with lower body injury. Dan Ellis surely can't backstop them to a series win, can he? He feels that Pekke Rinne will seal the deal for Nashville, and their superior defensive system will shutdown the more defensively inept Ducks.
Sportsnet's pick: Nashville in Seven.
Matthew at Hockeybuzz doesn't have a pick for this particular series because he didn't expect either of them to be the 4 and 5 seed, or to be in the dance at all.
Star Power: Anaheim.
Goaltending: Nashville (unless Hiller gets healthy).
Coaching: Anaheim (because Carlyle has been here before).
Offense: Anaheim, no question.
Defense: Nashville.
Home Ice: Anaheim.
Motivation: Even (Anaheim to prove they aren't a flash in the pan, Nashville just wants to prove that they can win a bloody series).
Overall: I think you have to give Anaheim this series. They are both physically tough teams, and while Nashville has an edge in the defensive department, Anaheim's offense has been terrific. Emery is no slouch, either, and the additions of Beauchmin, Lydman, Visnovsky and Fowler make Anaheim look good, too.
Matt's new and final prediction: Anaheim in Six.
Okay, so that's that! Let's see how I stack up against the likes of Mark Spector, Mike Brophy, Scott Cullen and the folks at Hockeybuzz.com!
Most of all, enjoy the playoffs. It all starts tomorrow!
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