Thursday, April 28, 2011

Predictions are about as useful as...

Well, I can't think of anything.

I watched the Boston and Montreal game, or I should say, I listened to it on the radio during a long commute between Toronto and London.

It was interesting to me that Boston seemed to want to shoot themselves in the foot as many times as they possibly could during the game. They allowed Montreal to use their powerplay, which is much vaunted in these playoffs and playing with fire. In a leveling sense, Montreal took a few penalties too, which Boston was unable to capitalize on. So much so, in fact, that Boston set a record for not scoring on a power play in a seven game series for the first time in Stanley Cup history. Try explaining that one to your grandkids.

This comes at a terrible time for the Bruins, who will likely wish their special teams were up to speed when they meet the Flyers. Philadelphia has a problem staying out of the box as they so capably demonstrated in the series with Buffalo just a few short days ago. Buffalo constantly exposed them for their petulance and backed it up with above average goaltending. A better, deeper team than the Sabres would have knocked the Flyers out in five or six games.

I'm going to give a shorter preview of the new series, as it all kicks off this evening in about an hours time.

First off, there's the Nashville vs. Vancouver series. This is looking very much like an easy call, and realistically the Predators shouldn't trouble the Canucks too much. Vancouver will feel as if they have a new lease on life after their much longed-for victory over Chicago. The city will be healing after that, and they'll need to re-focus on what will be a tough defensive test. The Predators have several skilled forwards that can absolutely expose any defensive instability you have. They have a run-and-gun strategy to put the puck deep, and deposit you directly into the boards. They don't call it 'smashville' for nothing.

I am predicting that the Canucks will win the series, but at the end of the day it's all about how easy the Predators make it. They cannot take any penalties. They need Rinne to stand on his head, and they need terrific two-way play from their forwards.

I'm going to say that Vancouver wins this series in 6 games.

The other matchup in the West puts San Jose against Detroit. This is difficult for me. Now that we're approaching the business end of the playoffs, I'd like to see Detroit knocked out. The longer they stay in the competition they more likely they are to win the whole thing.

San Jose was very good against Los Angeles, but they should have done better. The Kings are a decent team, definitely playoff worthy, but the Sharks allowed them to stay in the series.

I think that this is going to come down to whether or not San Jose gets good, solid goaltending. I want the best team to win at the end of the day.

So here's my prediction: Detroit in seven games.

In the east?

There's the small matter of Washington vs. Tampa Bay, a Southeast division battle that could rage on for some time.

Tampa's offense really only got going in the final two games of the series. It exposed Pittsburgh for what it really was: a tired, injured group, bereft of a solid goalscorer and with a goalie that was unable to stand on his head for a full seven games.

Washington is aching to get to the conference finals and prove to everyone that they are the class of the eastern conference. In HBO's 24/7 Hockey, Bruce Boudreau mentioned the statistic that Chicago lost 8 games in a row last year, but pulled their shit together and managed to win the Stanley Cup. That's true, and this year I believe that the Capitals lost 9 in a row while the Penguins were winning 11 in a row. It's funny that they two teams have gone in such opposite directions (though isn't that due to Washington in the first place?) and that the Capitals are starting to pull through for their coach. Their defense first approach has led to success.

Tampa has an excellent offense, but at the end of the day they are not as sound defensively as people thing they are. Sure, they did well in the last two games but it looked like the Penguins literally had nothing left to give. Would they have done as well if Crosby and Malkin were playing? Roloson has done well and won another series, and I'm sure he'll do well here. Maybe even put up another shutout.

I am selecting the Washington Capitals to win in 6 games.

Philadephia vs. Boston.

I'm not sure which Philadelphia Flyers team will show up. I am assuming the penalty-taking, sloppy, non-goaltending team will continue to rear its ugly head, and not even Chris Pronger can change that.

This team has one solid goaltender -- Boucher, who is totally outclassed by Tim Thomas and Tuuka Rask. They have Bobrovsky who is a great rookie, but should never have been kept in as the starter when they weren't sure until the end of the year. Why they didn't trade one of their 300 forwards for a good goaltender is beyond me.

Boston is going to be thinking that they are incredibly lucky and happy to be where they are, and they have another score to settle against the team that came back to cripple them last year. They have confidence, having beaten their biggest and closest rival, and now it's time to beat an conference power.

I am picking the Boston Bruins to win in 6 games.

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