I wish there were more statistics available for people like me who practically have a fetish for them.
There are certain baseball stats that I love. For example, when a batter is up and facing a pitcher, they always post what his batting record is against that particular pitcher. Then, after the first pitch has hit the catcher's mitt the umpire calls it a ball or a striker, the count goes to 1-0 or 0-1, and a new statistic is projected: this batter is .321% on a 1-0 count, or .212% on a 0-1 count.
It's a potential crap shoot, because it's possible that some of those numbers are bloated by lopsided at-bats against left or right handed pitchers, and against a certain number of teams within their division or outside of it. Anyway, I still like them because it gives you an idea of what you can expect in between pitches. It helps when you're watching a pitcher like Matsuzaka or Burnett who take so long in between deliveries with their over elaborate wind-ups and signals.
So the NHL playoffs are on and with each series there is at least one question that I'd like to ask a statistician.
Washington vs. New York Rangers:
Question: What is John Tortorella's record with teams when they have a 2-1 deficit in a series and they do not have home ice advantage?
Second question: what is the record of 8th seeds against 1st seeds when they are down 2 games to 1 in the conference quarterfinals?
Mundane questions at best, but this series doesn't really interest me. I don't like Tortorella's attitude and I certainly don't like a lot of players on their team. I don't mind if they get knocked out. Personally, I don't have anything riding on this series so whomever wins, wins. It will be made interesting if the Rangers manage to win the fourth game, evening the series and putting the Capitals in jeopardy of having to play an opening round 7-game series. They aren't good in 7th games, and the overall record of teams that have to play opening round seven-game series is that they don't win the cup. Isn't that one of the interesting stats I blogged about before? Okay then.
Philadelphia vs. Buffalo:
Buffalo won the first game, and since then it's been a wild-west shootout to see who can score the most goals. At the moment, Philly's unstable goaltending has managed to hold them over to back-to-back wins, at home and on the road. The series is precariously poised at 2-1 for the Flyers, and there's still one more game to be played at the HSBC Arena tomorrow night. The questions I have, are:
1. When the visiting teams wins the first game and shuts out the home team in game one, what is the record of that team in the following games of that series? Do they win overall, lose overall, score more goals? The Flyers have now scored 9 goals in the past two games, so perhaps that opening shutout helped galvanize the offense.
2. What is the record of 7th seed teams after winning game 1 on the road against the 2nd seed?
Boston vs. Montreal:
The storylines! Chara hospitalized, the Bruins inability to score, the 'home ice advantage non-factor' in this series. It's all amazing! I know the Bruins have had a massive mental block when facing the Canadiens in the post-season, but I'd have to say outside of Montreal there are probably far more hockey fans cheering for the Bruins to win because they are the underdog when it comes to history. The last ten minutes of the game were totally tipped in the Canadiens favour, but it was a reversal of fortunes against the Bruins in game 3, with the sloppier goaltending coming from Price, rather than Thomas. The opportunistic goals against the run of play coming for the Bruins, instead of the Canadiens.
Anyway, with all that said, here's the questions I want to know:
1. When the team with home ice advantage loses the first two games in the series, what is their record overall? I'm sure it isn't good.
2. What is the overall record of 6th seed teams playing against 3rd seed teams?
3. If the visiting team wins the first two games away, and the team with home-ice advantage wins the 3rd and 4th games on the road, what is the record in games 4-7?
Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay:
This series to me, is about superior defensive systems and goaltending, vs. superior offense and goalscoring. I think that Martin St. Louis is one of the premier forwards in the league, and has been for about 7 years now. I think that Lecavalier has remodeled his game to become a two-way forward with size, and the potential to be extremely physical. There are not many players that have his skill set and his size that can do anything.
Having said that, let's look at some of the questions we have here:
1. Has a goaltender of the same age or older than Roloson ever won the Stanley Cup?
2. Has a goaltender of Roloson's age ever won a post-season series as the team that does not have home ice advantage?
3. What is the record of 5th seed teams, against the fourth seed after being shut out in game 1?
That's probably just about it. This is another series that has the potential to go to game 7, and it also has the potential to be finished quickly. Not only that, I think Crosby could return if the Penguins win this series.
On to the West now.
Vancouver vs. Chicago:
Here's a stat for you, and it's a good one if you're a Canucks fan -- In the Best-Of-Seven era, every Presidents Trophy winner to sweep the opening series has gone on to win the Stanley Cup. This includes the '94 Rangers, the '99 Rangers, and the '01 Avalanche.
Having said that, I don't expect the Blackhawks to go quietly. I don't think they will win the series now, against what is clearly a superior Canucks team, but I don't expect that with all of that talent they will simply lie down and accept the inevitable. This team has a lot of fight in them, from the goaltending through to the coach, and has one of the best leaders in the hockey world, Jonathan Toews.
Questions:
1. How many Art Ross trophy winners have gone on the same year to win the Cup?
2. How many Art Ross trophy winners go on to lead the playoff scoring race? (Note: Daniel Sedin is currently leading the race with 3 goals, 2 assists, though tied for overall points total with three other players).
3. How many teams have come back from a 0-3 hole in a series to win, when they were the 8th seed, facing the 1st seed with guaranteed home-ice?
Now for the next most under-estimated series: San Jose vs. Los Angeles.
I'm not sure why I thought that the Kings would just accept that they were inferior. Let's remember that until their slump, they were the class of their division. Anaheim was inconsistent until the playoff push became important. The Sharks were consistent, but didn't reach another level until the second half of the season. Dallas started well and fell off course, quickly and abruptly. The Kings ended up needing to be very good down the stretch, which they were. They lost some of the core scoring, but their defense and goaltending is very good, and they have several quick, talented forwards that can burn you.
Anyway, some of the questions I have:
1. When was the last time a defenseman led his team in scoring through the end of the first round?
2. When was the last time a defenseman led his team in scoring through the playoffs?
-- I'm assuming it's Bobby Orr, but at the end of the day, I'm asking because Doughty is currently leading his team with 4 points (2G, 2A).
Detroit vs. Phoenix:
This series is boring. I'm sad because I hate Detroit and want nothing more than for them to just get dumped out of the playoffs unceremoniously.
At this point, I have very few questions. I want to know if a 6th seed has ever come back from a 0-3 hole against the 3rd seed. Or maybe just in the Western Conference.
That's all.
Anaheim vs. Nashville:
What a series! This one could produce a team that makes it to the finals.
Mike Fisher is having a second coming right now, with his wife in attendance in her home base, he's done everything he can besides turn into a catfish himself, and play the banjo. Anyway, the Preds defensive style has confounded the Ducks and it's going to require every little bit of talent they have to overcome them. They're also going to need better goaltending from Emery, who hasn't been bad, but hasn't been great.
Questions:
1. What is the record of the fourth seed against the fifth seed?
Umm, that's it.
Okay, so with that out of the way, I'd like to mention a few names that have impressed me and names that haven't really.
Marc Andre Gragnani, step forward. Taking over for the veteran Jordan Leopold probably had most Sabres fans cringing. The fact is, this kid has been solid. He's only played about 14 regular season games in his career, and the three playoff games he's played against a very deep and talented Flyers team have been his first ever. He's only 24 and he's making a big impact, at least on me. His sound defensive play has him sitting at a +1 through three games, two of which were in enemy territory and two of which saw the Flyers score four goals or more. He's got 4 assists, contributing at both ends.
How about Drew Doughty? The guy didn't play very well in his first game against the Sharks, and made most pundits who were predicting a sweep look brilliant. The second game, which all but nullified home ice advantage, produced four points in one game for Doughty, who obviously felt it was his role to step up and lead the team. Game 1 saw him play 30 minutes, get off only one shot, and take four minutes in penalties.
Game 2 saw him play only 24 minutes, take 3 shots, two of which were goals. He contributed 2 assist also, meaning that he had a hand in every goal. He was a +2 on the night as well. Quick also posted a shutout, which has everything to do with the defensemen in front of him. Let's see what happens in the rest of this series.
Teemu Selanne: the ageless one. What can you say about this guy? He's scored, he's skated, he's fought, he's been the catalyst and the antagonist all in one series. No wonder they want him around to mentor the likes of Getz, Perry and Ryan. This guy has done it all, and he can officially retire whenever he wants, having done everything and considered one of the best goalscorers ever.
Roberto Luongo -- talk about one of the heaviest question marks of all time. This guy has had a major monkey on his back. From great regular seasons to mediocre playoffs and crying in the locker room after a painful defeat to a conference rival, this guy has experienced it all. He was the man that led Canada to gold at the Olympics, and the man that Vancouver has placed all of their hopes in, Dipietro style. He's got three wins in three games, with a .944 save percentage, and a 1.67 GAA, with 1 shutout. It doesn't get better than that against the defending Stanley Cup champions, and your personal nemesis. The fact that he is stoning Toews and Kane on a regular basis and has six healthy defensemen in front of him, certainly helps. Let's not pour coffee on those numbers, though.
Tim Thomas -- wow. He made about four or five saves in the last 10 minutes of the game last night that were beyond world class. Some of them were screened, double screened and with players draped all over him. One of them was a brilliant second save following a rebound, still another was deflected. It was reminiscent of Ed Belfour's performance against the Ottawa Senators from about 7 years ago (yes, the last time the Leafs made the playoffs) and I was out of my seat the entire time. It's perhaps a series changing performance, and exactly what the man needed after losing home ice advantage in such poor fashion. And he's still got that smile on his moustached face.
Is Michael Neuvirth for real? I'd have to say so. He's faced quite a few shots and made some big time saves. He looked a little shaky in the first two games that I saw, but performed well in the overtime period in game one, and has gotten two wins. The loss against the Rangers in the third game would have been tough to take, especially so late, but here's the kid's chance to prove to his coach that he can bounce back and has a strong, short memory.
Brian Boucher -- talk about a pressure cooker! Walking into HSBC Arena with a better team in front of you doesn't exactly mean you get to lie in the crease and just wait for the pucks to hit you. He's taken over for his younger teammate Bobrovsky and done exactly what he's done all season long: calm everyone down. I think this is his series to win, and his Cup to win at the end of the day, because frankly Bobrovsky isn't getting it done. Sure, the Russian is going to be their long-term guy, but not for this playoff run.
With the awards due to be released a day at a time to keep hockey fans guessing, I'm going to weigh in on each one as they are released.
First up: the Calder trophy. To me, each of the three candidates are interesting and deserve attention, but there's one clear winner and those who can't see it don't know hockey.
Jeff Skinner is incredible. Coming into the NHL as an 18 year old, meant that he was going to need to be big enough, strong enough, talented enough, and competitive enough. Paul Maurice said, "there's one thing this kid has that few players have in addition to his natural talent, and that is his level of compete." He's probably right. Against every big, strong defenseman in the league, Skinner was routinely competitive and unrelenting. Skinner posted the most points by an NHL rookie in his first season: 63. The next closest was Couture with 56 points, but Couture did play 26 games last season -- an advantage that Skinner didn't have. Couture's age is also 22 years old, a full four years older than Skinner, who is still 18 at the time of writing. Couture played on the Shark's, a Stanley Cup contender, with world class talent on just about every line. Skinner played for the Hurricanes, a team that wasn't expected to compete and managed to just about nick the final spot in the Eastern conference going into the playoffs. He was selected as an all-star in his first season ever, too. Skinner's balanced statistics show that he has 31 goals and 32 assists, meaning he can both score when it matters and create a goal when he's not in position to score. Couture also played 15 games in the playoffs last year, an amazing primer for a young player that allows them to experience the pressure cooker that is the playoff atmosphere.
Grabner, yes he's a fast skater and a good goalscorer on a bad team. Yes he's a good story of perseverance after being dumped by more than one team. He's only 23, and he'll win more awards if he keeps his play up. He's not deserving of this award, however.
So that's that. Give Skinner the trophy now, since he's sitting at home bumed about how his team mailed it in on the final day of the season.
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