It's official.

The Leafs won't make the playoffs this year.

It isn't a surprise, so I'm not exactly broken up about it. Regardless, it ends a good run that the club has had over the course of the last two months. If only it had started a little bit earlier or even translated into consistency throughout the season.

James Reimer has been a revelation, and as far as I'm concerned he is the Toronto Maple Leafs starting goaltender going forward into the 2011/2012 season. Gustavsson is an able deputee, but not 100% dependable and still needs some consistency in his game. I would suggest JS Giguere would be the backup but with his current salary he can only fit into the 'albatross' category of undesirables -- regardless of his world-class skill, humility and mentoring value.

Okay, so that's that for the time being.

Now on to the playoffs.

Nearly every year I sign up for a playoff hockey pool, generally where each player picks position players and wins based on points. Of course, if you pick the right teams to progress, your players will continue on in the tournament and play more games. Rarely is it a good idea to pick a player that will only play one or even two rounds. Some players could pick up 10+ points in a single series, but that's unlikely unless there is lots of overtime and it is stretched to seven games.

When I make my decisions on players, I often find that my biases don't come in to play. For example, I detest the Ottawa Senators and the New York Rangers, and lately I've had some bad blood for the Philadelphia Flyers, though that may be solely because Danny Briere plays for them and I don't want him to win a cup. Otherwise, I pick the clubs that are currently hot, playing well, have an edge in the season series against their conference opponents, and then pick the players who have good playoff pedigree.

I usually do poorly. I remember one year when I was about 18, I picked the winner of the Stanley Cup to be the Colorado Avalanche. I picked accordingly, and I pick a couple of Devils too. Since then, I've picked based on what my head has told me. Several Detroit teams that have failed epically in the first or second round despite winning the Presidents Trophy. The Washington Capitals in recent years have provided me with disappointment, as have the Buffalo Sabres and New Jersey Devils. Last year the Boston Bruins appeared to be the team that could go all the way, and what did I get? Bounced.

The West throws up some upsets but let's be serious: the top seeds typically walk away in the first round unscathed and there aren't too many arguments about whether or not the 'better team' won out.

So here's what I'm going to do: I'll tell you what the records say about which club will progress through the first round, if the playoffs ended today. I will then tell you what my heart and head say in tandem, and we'll take a look at it later on to see if I was a complete moron or not. I know hockey as well or better than most people. I didn't play, but I do have a uncanny knack for seeing the game well and noticing things that most others don't. A career in coaching you ask? No, I'm not that sort of prodigal son.

Based on the current Eastern Conference standings (as of April 3rd, 2011):

Philadelphia vs. Buffalo -- The season series has Philly favoured by a 2-1 margin, albeit there is one more match to play in this series and that's coming up this week. Philly will have home ice advantage throughout the playoffs for being the first seed in the East (at this point) meaning that they'll still have a big advantage with a noisy crowd behind them for this series. Buffalo has been one of the best teams in the league for the last little while, jumping up from 10th to 7th and could jump into 6th if they play their cards right and the Habs fall.
Safe predictions: Philly in 7.

Washington vs. New York Rangers -- The season series favours the Rangers 3-1 and two of them were absolute blowouts. Washington is still competing to win the conference at the moment, so realistically their home ice advantage is almost guaranteed until the Cup Finals if they get there. Washington has a lot to prove.
Safe prediction: New York Rangers in 7.

Boston vs. Montreal -- The season series favours the Habs, 4-2 and the Habs have been full measure for their victories. The most recent was a total spanking, after it was ramped up to be a fight-fest following the Pacioretty incident. Regardless, Montreal has had the better of Boston...
Safe prediction: Montreal in 7.

Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay -- The season series is tied 2-2, with the most recent match played in Tampa for a 2-1 victory for the Bolts. The previous two games were epic spankings for the Pens, totalling 13 goals for and only 2 goals against. The Penguins will have home ice advantage.
Safe prediction: Pittsburgh in 7.

Now for my predictions. I'm not nice to the teams that I think are crap.

Philadelphia vs. Buffalo: Philadelphia is stacked and ready for the playoffs this time around. I don't care that Pronger isn't there, I don't care that the goaltending is shaky -- they are so deep at every position that it doesn't matter. Buffalo has been good lately but that's not going to cause Philly any concern.
Matt's prediction: Philly in six games, only because Miller will stand on his head.

Washington vs. New York Rangers: Washington has something to prove. The Rangers are the most overrated and undeserved team in the whole competition. It will take an absolute masterclass from Lundqvist and Tortorella in order for them to overcome the Caps.
Matt's prediction: Washington in 5.

Boston vs. Montreal -- Montreal has had the better of them in recent seasons and that's going to change this time around. Boston needs to prove that last year wasn't a fluke, and they're going to. Montreal over hyped the Pacioretty thing. Chara is a little bit of a petulant player but he isn't going to hurt anyone.
Matt's prediction: Boston in 6.

Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay -- Who is going to show up in this series? It's funny, because you feel like if Tampa wins, they will get battered by the next team they face. If Pittsburgh wins, you feel like the converse effect will be that they make it very deep in the playoffs. I think Pittsburgh is too deep and has this sort of 'whatever happens, happens' mentality that will see them overcome the Bolts.
Matt's prediction: Pittsburgh in 6.

That's it for tonight. Tomorrow: the West.