Well, I can't think of anything.
I watched the Boston and Montreal game, or I should say, I listened to it on the radio during a long commute between Toronto and London.
It was interesting to me that Boston seemed to want to shoot themselves in the foot as many times as they possibly could during the game. They allowed Montreal to use their powerplay, which is much vaunted in these playoffs and playing with fire. In a leveling sense, Montreal took a few penalties too, which Boston was unable to capitalize on. So much so, in fact, that Boston set a record for not scoring on a power play in a seven game series for the first time in Stanley Cup history. Try explaining that one to your grandkids.
This comes at a terrible time for the Bruins, who will likely wish their special teams were up to speed when they meet the Flyers. Philadelphia has a problem staying out of the box as they so capably demonstrated in the series with Buffalo just a few short days ago. Buffalo constantly exposed them for their petulance and backed it up with above average goaltending. A better, deeper team than the Sabres would have knocked the Flyers out in five or six games.
I'm going to give a shorter preview of the new series, as it all kicks off this evening in about an hours time.
First off, there's the Nashville vs. Vancouver series. This is looking very much like an easy call, and realistically the Predators shouldn't trouble the Canucks too much. Vancouver will feel as if they have a new lease on life after their much longed-for victory over Chicago. The city will be healing after that, and they'll need to re-focus on what will be a tough defensive test. The Predators have several skilled forwards that can absolutely expose any defensive instability you have. They have a run-and-gun strategy to put the puck deep, and deposit you directly into the boards. They don't call it 'smashville' for nothing.
I am predicting that the Canucks will win the series, but at the end of the day it's all about how easy the Predators make it. They cannot take any penalties. They need Rinne to stand on his head, and they need terrific two-way play from their forwards.
I'm going to say that Vancouver wins this series in 6 games.
The other matchup in the West puts San Jose against Detroit. This is difficult for me. Now that we're approaching the business end of the playoffs, I'd like to see Detroit knocked out. The longer they stay in the competition they more likely they are to win the whole thing.
San Jose was very good against Los Angeles, but they should have done better. The Kings are a decent team, definitely playoff worthy, but the Sharks allowed them to stay in the series.
I think that this is going to come down to whether or not San Jose gets good, solid goaltending. I want the best team to win at the end of the day.
So here's my prediction: Detroit in seven games.
In the east?
There's the small matter of Washington vs. Tampa Bay, a Southeast division battle that could rage on for some time.
Tampa's offense really only got going in the final two games of the series. It exposed Pittsburgh for what it really was: a tired, injured group, bereft of a solid goalscorer and with a goalie that was unable to stand on his head for a full seven games.
Washington is aching to get to the conference finals and prove to everyone that they are the class of the eastern conference. In HBO's 24/7 Hockey, Bruce Boudreau mentioned the statistic that Chicago lost 8 games in a row last year, but pulled their shit together and managed to win the Stanley Cup. That's true, and this year I believe that the Capitals lost 9 in a row while the Penguins were winning 11 in a row. It's funny that they two teams have gone in such opposite directions (though isn't that due to Washington in the first place?) and that the Capitals are starting to pull through for their coach. Their defense first approach has led to success.
Tampa has an excellent offense, but at the end of the day they are not as sound defensively as people thing they are. Sure, they did well in the last two games but it looked like the Penguins literally had nothing left to give. Would they have done as well if Crosby and Malkin were playing? Roloson has done well and won another series, and I'm sure he'll do well here. Maybe even put up another shutout.
I am selecting the Washington Capitals to win in 6 games.
Philadephia vs. Boston.
I'm not sure which Philadelphia Flyers team will show up. I am assuming the penalty-taking, sloppy, non-goaltending team will continue to rear its ugly head, and not even Chris Pronger can change that.
This team has one solid goaltender -- Boucher, who is totally outclassed by Tim Thomas and Tuuka Rask. They have Bobrovsky who is a great rookie, but should never have been kept in as the starter when they weren't sure until the end of the year. Why they didn't trade one of their 300 forwards for a good goaltender is beyond me.
Boston is going to be thinking that they are incredibly lucky and happy to be where they are, and they have another score to settle against the team that came back to cripple them last year. They have confidence, having beaten their biggest and closest rival, and now it's time to beat an conference power.
I am picking the Boston Bruins to win in 6 games.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
On Hockey:
I remember reading a novel by Bertrand Russell for the first time. It was so simple, so eloquent, so 'the way writing was meant to be.' Russell's strength is in not overcomplicating things, so that the reader gets the point immediately. I will try to do that today.
I've watched several games in the last few days, despite the fact that Easter celebrations took me to mass five times in four days. Being Catholic didn't obstruct my view of what's happened so far. 7 series continued, and there have been a few winners.
First, let's talk about Washington and New York.
Washington won the first two games, meaning that they had a 70% chance of winning the series. That proved to be true as they won 2 of the next 3 games, and knocked the Rangers out of the post-season. I'm glad, in a sense, because the Rangers were so clearly the inferior team. Sure, their defense and goaltending was impressive this season, but overall they lacked the quality that Washington has. I'm convinced that had Carolina won their final game and taken the 8th seed, they would have been a far better test for Washington and made this series more exciting. With Washington's newfound defensive system, it's not as fun to watch the Capitals anymore. Regardless, they're into the semi-finals now, and you'd have to look at them as a favourite to go all the way if their goaltending holds up.
This is probably a perfect time for me to tell you that I predicted Washington would win the series. I gave it 6 games, though. The Caps were a perfect 3-0 on home ice, which I mentioned would be important.
Philadelphia and Buffalo is another series that nobody is really sure about. Buffalo has performed to expectations, especially with how hot they were down the stretch. Having said that, I have never seen a series with so many penalties, so many open-net misses, so many goaltending changes by a 'contending' team. Philadelphia has literally tied this series and stayed in it by playing with fire. I don't know if they are as good as everyone once thought they were. Who is their starting goaltender? A question that should be answered sooner, rather than later. Why are they taking so many penalties? The Flyers are allowing themselves to be taken in by Buffalo's grinders and pests.
With that series going to a 7th game, you'd have to look to Philly to be the winners. However, Buffalo has won two games in Philly, and there doesn't seem to be much in the way of home-ice advantage. I'm going to stick with Philly as my pick to win the series, but I think that Buffalo has every chance of making it through. Nothing less than a Ryan Miller masterclass will see them past the Flyers. Remember, Philly won game 2, so they have a 70% chance of winning this series.
My original pick was Flyers in Six games. I picked Pronger as their talisman (if healthy) and said that the Flyers would be more motivated. We'll see what holds true when this one ends. Does anyone else get the feeling that Buffalo had their chance in game six to eliminate the Flyers, and now that chance is just about gone?
Now on to Boston and Montreal. This is a funny old series, because home ice advantage has counted for naught this far. The visiting team won all four games in the series, and with Boston winning game five on home ice, you'd have to think that momentum would be the Bruins friend going into this game 6.
Is this a good time to mention that I picked the Bruins to win in 6?
What about Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay?
I didn't expect the Penguins to jump out to a 3-1 series lead, albeit they did so by clutch goalscoring and overtime victories. The Penguins have stayed faithful with their systems, but at this point in the series with things going to a deciding 7th game, you're looking at a total loss of momentum for the Pens, and too much hanging in the balance for them. Tampa Bay has won the last two games by a combined score of 12-4, and Pittsburgh is now 0-2 in elimination games in the series. Let's see what happens.
I picked the Penguins to win in seven, because I figured that Tampa's offense would be tough to handle. It didn't hold true in the first 4 games, but they've lit it up on all lines in the past two.
In the Western Conference, it's too hard to tell what's going to happen between Vancouver and Chicago.
Chicago has been irresistible in the past three games, and they are absolutely motivated and on fire. Vancouver has been playing well, and their puck possession and distribution from defense to offense has been terrific. At times, you wonder how Chicago managed to stay in the series.
Regardless of that, Luongo's goaltending has been an issue once again. His nemeses' happen to be these very same Blackhawks, and its starting not to be very fun for him. He was terrific in the first two games, but the rest of this series he has been ordinary and managed a 1-3 record in the last four games. So far, we're looking at a wounded Canucks team who have had their confidence handed back to them for retooling.
I picked Vancouver to win in 6 games, and I still think it's more likely that they win this series, but obviously home-ice advantage doesn't count for very much.
Now for San Jose and Los Angeles. I remember looking at some blogrolls and seeing pundits had chosen this to be the only sweep of the first round. I wasn't too sure about that, but I did pick San Jose as the overwhelming winner. Los Angeles just doesn't have the depth and balance and that the Sharks have.
Give credit to the Kings, they made it a series. Regardless, the Sharks ended this in six games. I predicted it would end in five, although I did pick the Sharks to win it.
Detroit and Phoenix managed to make it a short series, with Detroit turning it on in the end, and Phoenix totally unable to cope with a more experienced and better quality side. I picked Wings in seven, and while that turned out to be far fetched, it's still the correct winner. Another feather in my cap.
The final series in the West was Anaheim and Nashville. I picked Anaheim to win in six games, and I'll admit I was wrong. Anaheim's offense was far too mercurial and they didn't manage to pull it together for more than one game in a row.
So, I have correctly picked the three winners of the series that are over. I have a few going to 7th games, so I could be 7/8, or I could be 3 for 8. Ouch. Tough!
Tomorrow, I'll post on the award nominees and what's happened with the 7th games.
I've watched several games in the last few days, despite the fact that Easter celebrations took me to mass five times in four days. Being Catholic didn't obstruct my view of what's happened so far. 7 series continued, and there have been a few winners.
First, let's talk about Washington and New York.
Washington won the first two games, meaning that they had a 70% chance of winning the series. That proved to be true as they won 2 of the next 3 games, and knocked the Rangers out of the post-season. I'm glad, in a sense, because the Rangers were so clearly the inferior team. Sure, their defense and goaltending was impressive this season, but overall they lacked the quality that Washington has. I'm convinced that had Carolina won their final game and taken the 8th seed, they would have been a far better test for Washington and made this series more exciting. With Washington's newfound defensive system, it's not as fun to watch the Capitals anymore. Regardless, they're into the semi-finals now, and you'd have to look at them as a favourite to go all the way if their goaltending holds up.
This is probably a perfect time for me to tell you that I predicted Washington would win the series. I gave it 6 games, though. The Caps were a perfect 3-0 on home ice, which I mentioned would be important.
Philadelphia and Buffalo is another series that nobody is really sure about. Buffalo has performed to expectations, especially with how hot they were down the stretch. Having said that, I have never seen a series with so many penalties, so many open-net misses, so many goaltending changes by a 'contending' team. Philadelphia has literally tied this series and stayed in it by playing with fire. I don't know if they are as good as everyone once thought they were. Who is their starting goaltender? A question that should be answered sooner, rather than later. Why are they taking so many penalties? The Flyers are allowing themselves to be taken in by Buffalo's grinders and pests.
With that series going to a 7th game, you'd have to look to Philly to be the winners. However, Buffalo has won two games in Philly, and there doesn't seem to be much in the way of home-ice advantage. I'm going to stick with Philly as my pick to win the series, but I think that Buffalo has every chance of making it through. Nothing less than a Ryan Miller masterclass will see them past the Flyers. Remember, Philly won game 2, so they have a 70% chance of winning this series.
My original pick was Flyers in Six games. I picked Pronger as their talisman (if healthy) and said that the Flyers would be more motivated. We'll see what holds true when this one ends. Does anyone else get the feeling that Buffalo had their chance in game six to eliminate the Flyers, and now that chance is just about gone?
Now on to Boston and Montreal. This is a funny old series, because home ice advantage has counted for naught this far. The visiting team won all four games in the series, and with Boston winning game five on home ice, you'd have to think that momentum would be the Bruins friend going into this game 6.
Is this a good time to mention that I picked the Bruins to win in 6?
What about Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay?
I didn't expect the Penguins to jump out to a 3-1 series lead, albeit they did so by clutch goalscoring and overtime victories. The Penguins have stayed faithful with their systems, but at this point in the series with things going to a deciding 7th game, you're looking at a total loss of momentum for the Pens, and too much hanging in the balance for them. Tampa Bay has won the last two games by a combined score of 12-4, and Pittsburgh is now 0-2 in elimination games in the series. Let's see what happens.
I picked the Penguins to win in seven, because I figured that Tampa's offense would be tough to handle. It didn't hold true in the first 4 games, but they've lit it up on all lines in the past two.
In the Western Conference, it's too hard to tell what's going to happen between Vancouver and Chicago.
Chicago has been irresistible in the past three games, and they are absolutely motivated and on fire. Vancouver has been playing well, and their puck possession and distribution from defense to offense has been terrific. At times, you wonder how Chicago managed to stay in the series.
Regardless of that, Luongo's goaltending has been an issue once again. His nemeses' happen to be these very same Blackhawks, and its starting not to be very fun for him. He was terrific in the first two games, but the rest of this series he has been ordinary and managed a 1-3 record in the last four games. So far, we're looking at a wounded Canucks team who have had their confidence handed back to them for retooling.
I picked Vancouver to win in 6 games, and I still think it's more likely that they win this series, but obviously home-ice advantage doesn't count for very much.
Now for San Jose and Los Angeles. I remember looking at some blogrolls and seeing pundits had chosen this to be the only sweep of the first round. I wasn't too sure about that, but I did pick San Jose as the overwhelming winner. Los Angeles just doesn't have the depth and balance and that the Sharks have.
Give credit to the Kings, they made it a series. Regardless, the Sharks ended this in six games. I predicted it would end in five, although I did pick the Sharks to win it.
Detroit and Phoenix managed to make it a short series, with Detroit turning it on in the end, and Phoenix totally unable to cope with a more experienced and better quality side. I picked Wings in seven, and while that turned out to be far fetched, it's still the correct winner. Another feather in my cap.
The final series in the West was Anaheim and Nashville. I picked Anaheim to win in six games, and I'll admit I was wrong. Anaheim's offense was far too mercurial and they didn't manage to pull it together for more than one game in a row.
So, I have correctly picked the three winners of the series that are over. I have a few going to 7th games, so I could be 7/8, or I could be 3 for 8. Ouch. Tough!
Tomorrow, I'll post on the award nominees and what's happened with the 7th games.
Friday, April 22, 2011
"This parachute is a knapsack......"
How badly do the Vancouver Canucks wish that the Dallas Stars had won their final game of the regular season?
The last two games in this series reek of a team that is overconfident.
Sure, the Canucks deserve to have an air of confidence within their locker room. The problem occurs when it spills on to the ice and the humility leaves their game.
The first two games were perfect examples of how the Canucks have transformed themselves into winners, from choke artists. The third game contained good play from both sides and a hit that has changed the momentum of the series.
Watching the 1st and 8th seeds play each other, it's easy to favour the underdog. It is impossible to say that Chicago is an underdog in this case, as they are, in fact, the reigning Stanley Cup champions. They deserve more respect than pundits -- myself included -- game them going into this war.
Now that I've watched the Raffi Torres hit Colin Campbell-style from every angle and with every possible situation in my mind, I'm certain that it was a dirty hit, at an inopportune time. Chicago took exception to it as did the league. What Torres didn't realize as he smugly accepted his one-game suspension from the series, was that it would be totally effective in bringing Chicago back into the fold.
Chicago is playing like a team possessed, like a wild animal that has gone unfed and unloved for a week and they have decided to take matters into their own hands.
Vancouver eliminated Seabrook from the lineup and don't have to face him, but they have to deal with the wrath of the reigning Norris trophy winner Duncan Keith, who, by-the-by, if you didn't watch the game last night, dropped four points on the old nemesis. Every time Kane-Toews and co touched the puck it was panic stations for what appeared to be a very weary Canucks team.
So what happens from here? It's difficult to say. Momentum: Chicago. Motivation: Chicago. Better team: still Vancouver, but they're not playing like it.
The Roberto Luongo we've seen in the last two games has been utterly and pathetically reminiscent of the Luongo of the '09 and '10 playoffs, whom was chased at will from his twined cage like a scared dog. He did the same in the last two games, and was given a vote of confidence from Alain Vigneault that probably won't do all that much for a very stretched and frayed Canucks team.
At this point, it's worth looking back at teams who went down 3-0 in a series but then won two games in an attempt to make it all look respectable, before bowing out and assuming the position in game 6. I remember in Detroit's Cup from from a few years back, the plucky Dallas Stars lost the first three games to the Presidents Trophy winners, then came back to upset the Wings in games 4 and 5, before losing the 6th game in total blowout fashion.
I remember a re-stocked and re-tooled Colorado Avalanche team, who had a certain Paul Kariya and Teemu Selanne on their team, looking to bounce an up-and-coming San Jose Sharks team from the playoffs. San Jose won the first 3 games of the series, before Colorado attempted to bring some respectability into it. They managed two wins, and were dumped.
Those are two recent examples (though the Colorado one might be at least 6 years old). It's not often that a team can crawl out of a hole like that, but if any team can do it you'd have to point directly at the Chicago Blackhawks.
One final point on them: can you imagine what it will do to the rest of the conference if they managed to make it out of this series? Nobody will want to play them, and they could go all the way to the 7th game of the conference final without losing any shred of respectability from anyone. One of the best 8th seeds you will ever see.
The other two big games last night contained upsets of sorts. For me, this Boston and Montreal series was over if the Bruins came out flat. They won game three and four on the road, negating any momentum the Canadiens had by upsetting the Bruins on home ice. Now, the Bruins have all the momentum going back to Boston where they can truly put Montreal on the ropes. This series is destined for 7 games, but at the end of the day if the Bruins manage to pull out the series victory you'd have to fear them going into the next round.
The fact that Marchand only really got going last night, as did Bergeron and that Krejci and Lucic haven't really hit their stride yet: things could get dicey for any other Eastern conference opponents. The Canadiens have got to look at themselves and Carey Price, who was unbeatable in the first two games and now looks as if he's been punched in the stomach.
The other match was something of a predictable one. The Sharks, having completed that remarkable comeback the other night, decided to put on a goalscoring clinic. They are reminiscent of the Red Wings a little bit. The perfect amount of grit, goalscoring, a good offensive defense and above average goaltending that is getting them through games. I thought maybe the Kings would be better after that excellent game in San Jose where they tried to shut up their army of naysayers. In fact, they've lost it all and now they go back to the Shark Tank where the Sharks will look to shut them down for good. That five-game prediction is looking pretty smart right now.
So those are the reviews. A few other quick points:
Joe Thornton -- step up son. Your first goal was last night, and that's lovely for you, but you've got to lead by example and that means scoring more points and being involved in the play more.
Corey Crawford -- you're a rookie, and you're getting lucky. I watched his play last night and he scrambles far too many. You want focus? See: Carey Price. He's so calm, it's scary. There were so many 'almost' goals last night that rolled wide, couldn't be redirected or just missed the open net. Crawford made some nice saves, granted, but I wouldn't give him a vote of confidence going into another round where he'd play against Detroit or San Jose, because they will expose him with prejudice.
That's all! Enjoy the games tonight.
The last two games in this series reek of a team that is overconfident.
Sure, the Canucks deserve to have an air of confidence within their locker room. The problem occurs when it spills on to the ice and the humility leaves their game.
The first two games were perfect examples of how the Canucks have transformed themselves into winners, from choke artists. The third game contained good play from both sides and a hit that has changed the momentum of the series.
Watching the 1st and 8th seeds play each other, it's easy to favour the underdog. It is impossible to say that Chicago is an underdog in this case, as they are, in fact, the reigning Stanley Cup champions. They deserve more respect than pundits -- myself included -- game them going into this war.
Now that I've watched the Raffi Torres hit Colin Campbell-style from every angle and with every possible situation in my mind, I'm certain that it was a dirty hit, at an inopportune time. Chicago took exception to it as did the league. What Torres didn't realize as he smugly accepted his one-game suspension from the series, was that it would be totally effective in bringing Chicago back into the fold.
Chicago is playing like a team possessed, like a wild animal that has gone unfed and unloved for a week and they have decided to take matters into their own hands.
Vancouver eliminated Seabrook from the lineup and don't have to face him, but they have to deal with the wrath of the reigning Norris trophy winner Duncan Keith, who, by-the-by, if you didn't watch the game last night, dropped four points on the old nemesis. Every time Kane-Toews and co touched the puck it was panic stations for what appeared to be a very weary Canucks team.
So what happens from here? It's difficult to say. Momentum: Chicago. Motivation: Chicago. Better team: still Vancouver, but they're not playing like it.
The Roberto Luongo we've seen in the last two games has been utterly and pathetically reminiscent of the Luongo of the '09 and '10 playoffs, whom was chased at will from his twined cage like a scared dog. He did the same in the last two games, and was given a vote of confidence from Alain Vigneault that probably won't do all that much for a very stretched and frayed Canucks team.
At this point, it's worth looking back at teams who went down 3-0 in a series but then won two games in an attempt to make it all look respectable, before bowing out and assuming the position in game 6. I remember in Detroit's Cup from from a few years back, the plucky Dallas Stars lost the first three games to the Presidents Trophy winners, then came back to upset the Wings in games 4 and 5, before losing the 6th game in total blowout fashion.
I remember a re-stocked and re-tooled Colorado Avalanche team, who had a certain Paul Kariya and Teemu Selanne on their team, looking to bounce an up-and-coming San Jose Sharks team from the playoffs. San Jose won the first 3 games of the series, before Colorado attempted to bring some respectability into it. They managed two wins, and were dumped.
Those are two recent examples (though the Colorado one might be at least 6 years old). It's not often that a team can crawl out of a hole like that, but if any team can do it you'd have to point directly at the Chicago Blackhawks.
One final point on them: can you imagine what it will do to the rest of the conference if they managed to make it out of this series? Nobody will want to play them, and they could go all the way to the 7th game of the conference final without losing any shred of respectability from anyone. One of the best 8th seeds you will ever see.
The other two big games last night contained upsets of sorts. For me, this Boston and Montreal series was over if the Bruins came out flat. They won game three and four on the road, negating any momentum the Canadiens had by upsetting the Bruins on home ice. Now, the Bruins have all the momentum going back to Boston where they can truly put Montreal on the ropes. This series is destined for 7 games, but at the end of the day if the Bruins manage to pull out the series victory you'd have to fear them going into the next round.
The fact that Marchand only really got going last night, as did Bergeron and that Krejci and Lucic haven't really hit their stride yet: things could get dicey for any other Eastern conference opponents. The Canadiens have got to look at themselves and Carey Price, who was unbeatable in the first two games and now looks as if he's been punched in the stomach.
The other match was something of a predictable one. The Sharks, having completed that remarkable comeback the other night, decided to put on a goalscoring clinic. They are reminiscent of the Red Wings a little bit. The perfect amount of grit, goalscoring, a good offensive defense and above average goaltending that is getting them through games. I thought maybe the Kings would be better after that excellent game in San Jose where they tried to shut up their army of naysayers. In fact, they've lost it all and now they go back to the Shark Tank where the Sharks will look to shut them down for good. That five-game prediction is looking pretty smart right now.
So those are the reviews. A few other quick points:
Joe Thornton -- step up son. Your first goal was last night, and that's lovely for you, but you've got to lead by example and that means scoring more points and being involved in the play more.
Corey Crawford -- you're a rookie, and you're getting lucky. I watched his play last night and he scrambles far too many. You want focus? See: Carey Price. He's so calm, it's scary. There were so many 'almost' goals last night that rolled wide, couldn't be redirected or just missed the open net. Crawford made some nice saves, granted, but I wouldn't give him a vote of confidence going into another round where he'd play against Detroit or San Jose, because they will expose him with prejudice.
That's all! Enjoy the games tonight.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
West Coast Road Trip.
Last night was a good journey through left coast hockey.
As an Ontarian, I watch a lot of east coast hockey. There's a certain speed, flair, excitement, big crowds, quirkiness.
The Western Conference in the NHL has a different standard. Overall, it's slightly better despite the league's attempts to gain parity throughout all 30 teams. I would suggest that goaltending is better in the West, as is the quality of defense. I would suggest that there could be less balance on all four forward lines compared to the East, where I think there is better depth overall. However, your defensemen and goal tending tandem is where the Cup is decided and awarded.
Anyway, it was nice to see Chicago win a game last night, because it's a great hockey city that has suffered under some terrible teams for more than a decade. It was nice to see Toews, Kane and Bolland get on the scoresheet, and for the confidence of young Crawford to get the V and help his team stay alive.
They've got momentum, these Blackhawks, and they are heading back to Vancouver with their backs against the wall and a strong desire to take this back to Chicago for game 6. It's been a bittersweet year for the Hawks, who are succumbing to what most Stanley Cup champs experience: the hangover. It's the salary cap era, where teams are built and broken. Most of the great teams that find success are not able to stay together. Detroit is an exception because they have managed to get some players to stay and take a 'home town discount' which is rare in the NHL, and something that Bettman and the powers that be don't like. It's a way of circumventing the cap in a sense, making sure your star players stay for less money, just because they know they will win at some point in the near future.
That's not to say that the Wings haven't drafted well -- they have. They are at the pinnacle of scouting and drafting, and it's done them well over the past few seasons.
So Luongo had a stinker of an evening. Does he come back stronger, more focused? Does he come back with a voice in the back of his head, saying "you've been here before. Now it's at 3-1, and they've got a chance..." Does he panic? He's world class, but he's not good in pressure-cooking situations in the playoffs, as we've seen before.
How about those Kings? I was excited, watching the game last night, because the crowd was loud and was behind this team. Scathing reviews today, after allowing a four goal lead drift away and somehow conspire to lose in overtime. Sounds like Dustin Penner was a useless twat last night, and that's the best I can describe. I've seen a few plays and it appears as if he's not too sure what to do. I think he was at his best on that grind line with Perry and Getzlaf. They brought the best out of him in that playoff run in 2oo7, and I don't think he will ever regain that form.
He's struggled since his move to Edmonton with weight and motivation issues. He had a decent year this year, but moving to a laid-back atmosphere in California where he was once so comfortable has not paid off for the Kings.
Anyway, that's about all I have to say. We could see our first team eliminated tonight, and that's sad in my opinion but...that's hockey.
As an Ontarian, I watch a lot of east coast hockey. There's a certain speed, flair, excitement, big crowds, quirkiness.
The Western Conference in the NHL has a different standard. Overall, it's slightly better despite the league's attempts to gain parity throughout all 30 teams. I would suggest that goaltending is better in the West, as is the quality of defense. I would suggest that there could be less balance on all four forward lines compared to the East, where I think there is better depth overall. However, your defensemen and goal tending tandem is where the Cup is decided and awarded.
Anyway, it was nice to see Chicago win a game last night, because it's a great hockey city that has suffered under some terrible teams for more than a decade. It was nice to see Toews, Kane and Bolland get on the scoresheet, and for the confidence of young Crawford to get the V and help his team stay alive.
They've got momentum, these Blackhawks, and they are heading back to Vancouver with their backs against the wall and a strong desire to take this back to Chicago for game 6. It's been a bittersweet year for the Hawks, who are succumbing to what most Stanley Cup champs experience: the hangover. It's the salary cap era, where teams are built and broken. Most of the great teams that find success are not able to stay together. Detroit is an exception because they have managed to get some players to stay and take a 'home town discount' which is rare in the NHL, and something that Bettman and the powers that be don't like. It's a way of circumventing the cap in a sense, making sure your star players stay for less money, just because they know they will win at some point in the near future.
That's not to say that the Wings haven't drafted well -- they have. They are at the pinnacle of scouting and drafting, and it's done them well over the past few seasons.
So Luongo had a stinker of an evening. Does he come back stronger, more focused? Does he come back with a voice in the back of his head, saying "you've been here before. Now it's at 3-1, and they've got a chance..." Does he panic? He's world class, but he's not good in pressure-cooking situations in the playoffs, as we've seen before.
How about those Kings? I was excited, watching the game last night, because the crowd was loud and was behind this team. Scathing reviews today, after allowing a four goal lead drift away and somehow conspire to lose in overtime. Sounds like Dustin Penner was a useless twat last night, and that's the best I can describe. I've seen a few plays and it appears as if he's not too sure what to do. I think he was at his best on that grind line with Perry and Getzlaf. They brought the best out of him in that playoff run in 2oo7, and I don't think he will ever regain that form.
He's struggled since his move to Edmonton with weight and motivation issues. He had a decent year this year, but moving to a laid-back atmosphere in California where he was once so comfortable has not paid off for the Kings.
Anyway, that's about all I have to say. We could see our first team eliminated tonight, and that's sad in my opinion but...that's hockey.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Out come the brooms. Or do they?
I wish there were more statistics available for people like me who practically have a fetish for them.
There are certain baseball stats that I love. For example, when a batter is up and facing a pitcher, they always post what his batting record is against that particular pitcher. Then, after the first pitch has hit the catcher's mitt the umpire calls it a ball or a striker, the count goes to 1-0 or 0-1, and a new statistic is projected: this batter is .321% on a 1-0 count, or .212% on a 0-1 count.
It's a potential crap shoot, because it's possible that some of those numbers are bloated by lopsided at-bats against left or right handed pitchers, and against a certain number of teams within their division or outside of it. Anyway, I still like them because it gives you an idea of what you can expect in between pitches. It helps when you're watching a pitcher like Matsuzaka or Burnett who take so long in between deliveries with their over elaborate wind-ups and signals.
So the NHL playoffs are on and with each series there is at least one question that I'd like to ask a statistician.
Washington vs. New York Rangers:
Question: What is John Tortorella's record with teams when they have a 2-1 deficit in a series and they do not have home ice advantage?
Second question: what is the record of 8th seeds against 1st seeds when they are down 2 games to 1 in the conference quarterfinals?
Mundane questions at best, but this series doesn't really interest me. I don't like Tortorella's attitude and I certainly don't like a lot of players on their team. I don't mind if they get knocked out. Personally, I don't have anything riding on this series so whomever wins, wins. It will be made interesting if the Rangers manage to win the fourth game, evening the series and putting the Capitals in jeopardy of having to play an opening round 7-game series. They aren't good in 7th games, and the overall record of teams that have to play opening round seven-game series is that they don't win the cup. Isn't that one of the interesting stats I blogged about before? Okay then.
Philadelphia vs. Buffalo:
Buffalo won the first game, and since then it's been a wild-west shootout to see who can score the most goals. At the moment, Philly's unstable goaltending has managed to hold them over to back-to-back wins, at home and on the road. The series is precariously poised at 2-1 for the Flyers, and there's still one more game to be played at the HSBC Arena tomorrow night. The questions I have, are:
1. When the visiting teams wins the first game and shuts out the home team in game one, what is the record of that team in the following games of that series? Do they win overall, lose overall, score more goals? The Flyers have now scored 9 goals in the past two games, so perhaps that opening shutout helped galvanize the offense.
2. What is the record of 7th seed teams after winning game 1 on the road against the 2nd seed?
Boston vs. Montreal:
The storylines! Chara hospitalized, the Bruins inability to score, the 'home ice advantage non-factor' in this series. It's all amazing! I know the Bruins have had a massive mental block when facing the Canadiens in the post-season, but I'd have to say outside of Montreal there are probably far more hockey fans cheering for the Bruins to win because they are the underdog when it comes to history. The last ten minutes of the game were totally tipped in the Canadiens favour, but it was a reversal of fortunes against the Bruins in game 3, with the sloppier goaltending coming from Price, rather than Thomas. The opportunistic goals against the run of play coming for the Bruins, instead of the Canadiens.
Anyway, with all that said, here's the questions I want to know:
1. When the team with home ice advantage loses the first two games in the series, what is their record overall? I'm sure it isn't good.
2. What is the overall record of 6th seed teams playing against 3rd seed teams?
3. If the visiting team wins the first two games away, and the team with home-ice advantage wins the 3rd and 4th games on the road, what is the record in games 4-7?
Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay:
This series to me, is about superior defensive systems and goaltending, vs. superior offense and goalscoring. I think that Martin St. Louis is one of the premier forwards in the league, and has been for about 7 years now. I think that Lecavalier has remodeled his game to become a two-way forward with size, and the potential to be extremely physical. There are not many players that have his skill set and his size that can do anything.
Having said that, let's look at some of the questions we have here:
1. Has a goaltender of the same age or older than Roloson ever won the Stanley Cup?
2. Has a goaltender of Roloson's age ever won a post-season series as the team that does not have home ice advantage?
3. What is the record of 5th seed teams, against the fourth seed after being shut out in game 1?
That's probably just about it. This is another series that has the potential to go to game 7, and it also has the potential to be finished quickly. Not only that, I think Crosby could return if the Penguins win this series.
On to the West now.
Vancouver vs. Chicago:
Here's a stat for you, and it's a good one if you're a Canucks fan -- In the Best-Of-Seven era, every Presidents Trophy winner to sweep the opening series has gone on to win the Stanley Cup. This includes the '94 Rangers, the '99 Rangers, and the '01 Avalanche.
Having said that, I don't expect the Blackhawks to go quietly. I don't think they will win the series now, against what is clearly a superior Canucks team, but I don't expect that with all of that talent they will simply lie down and accept the inevitable. This team has a lot of fight in them, from the goaltending through to the coach, and has one of the best leaders in the hockey world, Jonathan Toews.
Questions:
1. How many Art Ross trophy winners have gone on the same year to win the Cup?
2. How many Art Ross trophy winners go on to lead the playoff scoring race? (Note: Daniel Sedin is currently leading the race with 3 goals, 2 assists, though tied for overall points total with three other players).
3. How many teams have come back from a 0-3 hole in a series to win, when they were the 8th seed, facing the 1st seed with guaranteed home-ice?
Now for the next most under-estimated series: San Jose vs. Los Angeles.
I'm not sure why I thought that the Kings would just accept that they were inferior. Let's remember that until their slump, they were the class of their division. Anaheim was inconsistent until the playoff push became important. The Sharks were consistent, but didn't reach another level until the second half of the season. Dallas started well and fell off course, quickly and abruptly. The Kings ended up needing to be very good down the stretch, which they were. They lost some of the core scoring, but their defense and goaltending is very good, and they have several quick, talented forwards that can burn you.
Anyway, some of the questions I have:
1. When was the last time a defenseman led his team in scoring through the end of the first round?
2. When was the last time a defenseman led his team in scoring through the playoffs?
-- I'm assuming it's Bobby Orr, but at the end of the day, I'm asking because Doughty is currently leading his team with 4 points (2G, 2A).
Detroit vs. Phoenix:
This series is boring. I'm sad because I hate Detroit and want nothing more than for them to just get dumped out of the playoffs unceremoniously.
At this point, I have very few questions. I want to know if a 6th seed has ever come back from a 0-3 hole against the 3rd seed. Or maybe just in the Western Conference.
That's all.
Anaheim vs. Nashville:
What a series! This one could produce a team that makes it to the finals.
Mike Fisher is having a second coming right now, with his wife in attendance in her home base, he's done everything he can besides turn into a catfish himself, and play the banjo. Anyway, the Preds defensive style has confounded the Ducks and it's going to require every little bit of talent they have to overcome them. They're also going to need better goaltending from Emery, who hasn't been bad, but hasn't been great.
Questions:
1. What is the record of the fourth seed against the fifth seed?
Umm, that's it.
Okay, so with that out of the way, I'd like to mention a few names that have impressed me and names that haven't really.
Marc Andre Gragnani, step forward. Taking over for the veteran Jordan Leopold probably had most Sabres fans cringing. The fact is, this kid has been solid. He's only played about 14 regular season games in his career, and the three playoff games he's played against a very deep and talented Flyers team have been his first ever. He's only 24 and he's making a big impact, at least on me. His sound defensive play has him sitting at a +1 through three games, two of which were in enemy territory and two of which saw the Flyers score four goals or more. He's got 4 assists, contributing at both ends.
How about Drew Doughty? The guy didn't play very well in his first game against the Sharks, and made most pundits who were predicting a sweep look brilliant. The second game, which all but nullified home ice advantage, produced four points in one game for Doughty, who obviously felt it was his role to step up and lead the team. Game 1 saw him play 30 minutes, get off only one shot, and take four minutes in penalties.
Game 2 saw him play only 24 minutes, take 3 shots, two of which were goals. He contributed 2 assist also, meaning that he had a hand in every goal. He was a +2 on the night as well. Quick also posted a shutout, which has everything to do with the defensemen in front of him. Let's see what happens in the rest of this series.
Teemu Selanne: the ageless one. What can you say about this guy? He's scored, he's skated, he's fought, he's been the catalyst and the antagonist all in one series. No wonder they want him around to mentor the likes of Getz, Perry and Ryan. This guy has done it all, and he can officially retire whenever he wants, having done everything and considered one of the best goalscorers ever.
Roberto Luongo -- talk about one of the heaviest question marks of all time. This guy has had a major monkey on his back. From great regular seasons to mediocre playoffs and crying in the locker room after a painful defeat to a conference rival, this guy has experienced it all. He was the man that led Canada to gold at the Olympics, and the man that Vancouver has placed all of their hopes in, Dipietro style. He's got three wins in three games, with a .944 save percentage, and a 1.67 GAA, with 1 shutout. It doesn't get better than that against the defending Stanley Cup champions, and your personal nemesis. The fact that he is stoning Toews and Kane on a regular basis and has six healthy defensemen in front of him, certainly helps. Let's not pour coffee on those numbers, though.
Tim Thomas -- wow. He made about four or five saves in the last 10 minutes of the game last night that were beyond world class. Some of them were screened, double screened and with players draped all over him. One of them was a brilliant second save following a rebound, still another was deflected. It was reminiscent of Ed Belfour's performance against the Ottawa Senators from about 7 years ago (yes, the last time the Leafs made the playoffs) and I was out of my seat the entire time. It's perhaps a series changing performance, and exactly what the man needed after losing home ice advantage in such poor fashion. And he's still got that smile on his moustached face.
Is Michael Neuvirth for real? I'd have to say so. He's faced quite a few shots and made some big time saves. He looked a little shaky in the first two games that I saw, but performed well in the overtime period in game one, and has gotten two wins. The loss against the Rangers in the third game would have been tough to take, especially so late, but here's the kid's chance to prove to his coach that he can bounce back and has a strong, short memory.
Brian Boucher -- talk about a pressure cooker! Walking into HSBC Arena with a better team in front of you doesn't exactly mean you get to lie in the crease and just wait for the pucks to hit you. He's taken over for his younger teammate Bobrovsky and done exactly what he's done all season long: calm everyone down. I think this is his series to win, and his Cup to win at the end of the day, because frankly Bobrovsky isn't getting it done. Sure, the Russian is going to be their long-term guy, but not for this playoff run.
With the awards due to be released a day at a time to keep hockey fans guessing, I'm going to weigh in on each one as they are released.
First up: the Calder trophy. To me, each of the three candidates are interesting and deserve attention, but there's one clear winner and those who can't see it don't know hockey.
Jeff Skinner is incredible. Coming into the NHL as an 18 year old, meant that he was going to need to be big enough, strong enough, talented enough, and competitive enough. Paul Maurice said, "there's one thing this kid has that few players have in addition to his natural talent, and that is his level of compete." He's probably right. Against every big, strong defenseman in the league, Skinner was routinely competitive and unrelenting. Skinner posted the most points by an NHL rookie in his first season: 63. The next closest was Couture with 56 points, but Couture did play 26 games last season -- an advantage that Skinner didn't have. Couture's age is also 22 years old, a full four years older than Skinner, who is still 18 at the time of writing. Couture played on the Shark's, a Stanley Cup contender, with world class talent on just about every line. Skinner played for the Hurricanes, a team that wasn't expected to compete and managed to just about nick the final spot in the Eastern conference going into the playoffs. He was selected as an all-star in his first season ever, too. Skinner's balanced statistics show that he has 31 goals and 32 assists, meaning he can both score when it matters and create a goal when he's not in position to score. Couture also played 15 games in the playoffs last year, an amazing primer for a young player that allows them to experience the pressure cooker that is the playoff atmosphere.
Grabner, yes he's a fast skater and a good goalscorer on a bad team. Yes he's a good story of perseverance after being dumped by more than one team. He's only 23, and he'll win more awards if he keeps his play up. He's not deserving of this award, however.
So that's that. Give Skinner the trophy now, since he's sitting at home bumed about how his team mailed it in on the final day of the season.
There are certain baseball stats that I love. For example, when a batter is up and facing a pitcher, they always post what his batting record is against that particular pitcher. Then, after the first pitch has hit the catcher's mitt the umpire calls it a ball or a striker, the count goes to 1-0 or 0-1, and a new statistic is projected: this batter is .321% on a 1-0 count, or .212% on a 0-1 count.
It's a potential crap shoot, because it's possible that some of those numbers are bloated by lopsided at-bats against left or right handed pitchers, and against a certain number of teams within their division or outside of it. Anyway, I still like them because it gives you an idea of what you can expect in between pitches. It helps when you're watching a pitcher like Matsuzaka or Burnett who take so long in between deliveries with their over elaborate wind-ups and signals.
So the NHL playoffs are on and with each series there is at least one question that I'd like to ask a statistician.
Washington vs. New York Rangers:
Question: What is John Tortorella's record with teams when they have a 2-1 deficit in a series and they do not have home ice advantage?
Second question: what is the record of 8th seeds against 1st seeds when they are down 2 games to 1 in the conference quarterfinals?
Mundane questions at best, but this series doesn't really interest me. I don't like Tortorella's attitude and I certainly don't like a lot of players on their team. I don't mind if they get knocked out. Personally, I don't have anything riding on this series so whomever wins, wins. It will be made interesting if the Rangers manage to win the fourth game, evening the series and putting the Capitals in jeopardy of having to play an opening round 7-game series. They aren't good in 7th games, and the overall record of teams that have to play opening round seven-game series is that they don't win the cup. Isn't that one of the interesting stats I blogged about before? Okay then.
Philadelphia vs. Buffalo:
Buffalo won the first game, and since then it's been a wild-west shootout to see who can score the most goals. At the moment, Philly's unstable goaltending has managed to hold them over to back-to-back wins, at home and on the road. The series is precariously poised at 2-1 for the Flyers, and there's still one more game to be played at the HSBC Arena tomorrow night. The questions I have, are:
1. When the visiting teams wins the first game and shuts out the home team in game one, what is the record of that team in the following games of that series? Do they win overall, lose overall, score more goals? The Flyers have now scored 9 goals in the past two games, so perhaps that opening shutout helped galvanize the offense.
2. What is the record of 7th seed teams after winning game 1 on the road against the 2nd seed?
Boston vs. Montreal:
The storylines! Chara hospitalized, the Bruins inability to score, the 'home ice advantage non-factor' in this series. It's all amazing! I know the Bruins have had a massive mental block when facing the Canadiens in the post-season, but I'd have to say outside of Montreal there are probably far more hockey fans cheering for the Bruins to win because they are the underdog when it comes to history. The last ten minutes of the game were totally tipped in the Canadiens favour, but it was a reversal of fortunes against the Bruins in game 3, with the sloppier goaltending coming from Price, rather than Thomas. The opportunistic goals against the run of play coming for the Bruins, instead of the Canadiens.
Anyway, with all that said, here's the questions I want to know:
1. When the team with home ice advantage loses the first two games in the series, what is their record overall? I'm sure it isn't good.
2. What is the overall record of 6th seed teams playing against 3rd seed teams?
3. If the visiting team wins the first two games away, and the team with home-ice advantage wins the 3rd and 4th games on the road, what is the record in games 4-7?
Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay:
This series to me, is about superior defensive systems and goaltending, vs. superior offense and goalscoring. I think that Martin St. Louis is one of the premier forwards in the league, and has been for about 7 years now. I think that Lecavalier has remodeled his game to become a two-way forward with size, and the potential to be extremely physical. There are not many players that have his skill set and his size that can do anything.
Having said that, let's look at some of the questions we have here:
1. Has a goaltender of the same age or older than Roloson ever won the Stanley Cup?
2. Has a goaltender of Roloson's age ever won a post-season series as the team that does not have home ice advantage?
3. What is the record of 5th seed teams, against the fourth seed after being shut out in game 1?
That's probably just about it. This is another series that has the potential to go to game 7, and it also has the potential to be finished quickly. Not only that, I think Crosby could return if the Penguins win this series.
On to the West now.
Vancouver vs. Chicago:
Here's a stat for you, and it's a good one if you're a Canucks fan -- In the Best-Of-Seven era, every Presidents Trophy winner to sweep the opening series has gone on to win the Stanley Cup. This includes the '94 Rangers, the '99 Rangers, and the '01 Avalanche.
Having said that, I don't expect the Blackhawks to go quietly. I don't think they will win the series now, against what is clearly a superior Canucks team, but I don't expect that with all of that talent they will simply lie down and accept the inevitable. This team has a lot of fight in them, from the goaltending through to the coach, and has one of the best leaders in the hockey world, Jonathan Toews.
Questions:
1. How many Art Ross trophy winners have gone on the same year to win the Cup?
2. How many Art Ross trophy winners go on to lead the playoff scoring race? (Note: Daniel Sedin is currently leading the race with 3 goals, 2 assists, though tied for overall points total with three other players).
3. How many teams have come back from a 0-3 hole in a series to win, when they were the 8th seed, facing the 1st seed with guaranteed home-ice?
Now for the next most under-estimated series: San Jose vs. Los Angeles.
I'm not sure why I thought that the Kings would just accept that they were inferior. Let's remember that until their slump, they were the class of their division. Anaheim was inconsistent until the playoff push became important. The Sharks were consistent, but didn't reach another level until the second half of the season. Dallas started well and fell off course, quickly and abruptly. The Kings ended up needing to be very good down the stretch, which they were. They lost some of the core scoring, but their defense and goaltending is very good, and they have several quick, talented forwards that can burn you.
Anyway, some of the questions I have:
1. When was the last time a defenseman led his team in scoring through the end of the first round?
2. When was the last time a defenseman led his team in scoring through the playoffs?
-- I'm assuming it's Bobby Orr, but at the end of the day, I'm asking because Doughty is currently leading his team with 4 points (2G, 2A).
Detroit vs. Phoenix:
This series is boring. I'm sad because I hate Detroit and want nothing more than for them to just get dumped out of the playoffs unceremoniously.
At this point, I have very few questions. I want to know if a 6th seed has ever come back from a 0-3 hole against the 3rd seed. Or maybe just in the Western Conference.
That's all.
Anaheim vs. Nashville:
What a series! This one could produce a team that makes it to the finals.
Mike Fisher is having a second coming right now, with his wife in attendance in her home base, he's done everything he can besides turn into a catfish himself, and play the banjo. Anyway, the Preds defensive style has confounded the Ducks and it's going to require every little bit of talent they have to overcome them. They're also going to need better goaltending from Emery, who hasn't been bad, but hasn't been great.
Questions:
1. What is the record of the fourth seed against the fifth seed?
Umm, that's it.
Okay, so with that out of the way, I'd like to mention a few names that have impressed me and names that haven't really.
Marc Andre Gragnani, step forward. Taking over for the veteran Jordan Leopold probably had most Sabres fans cringing. The fact is, this kid has been solid. He's only played about 14 regular season games in his career, and the three playoff games he's played against a very deep and talented Flyers team have been his first ever. He's only 24 and he's making a big impact, at least on me. His sound defensive play has him sitting at a +1 through three games, two of which were in enemy territory and two of which saw the Flyers score four goals or more. He's got 4 assists, contributing at both ends.
How about Drew Doughty? The guy didn't play very well in his first game against the Sharks, and made most pundits who were predicting a sweep look brilliant. The second game, which all but nullified home ice advantage, produced four points in one game for Doughty, who obviously felt it was his role to step up and lead the team. Game 1 saw him play 30 minutes, get off only one shot, and take four minutes in penalties.
Game 2 saw him play only 24 minutes, take 3 shots, two of which were goals. He contributed 2 assist also, meaning that he had a hand in every goal. He was a +2 on the night as well. Quick also posted a shutout, which has everything to do with the defensemen in front of him. Let's see what happens in the rest of this series.
Teemu Selanne: the ageless one. What can you say about this guy? He's scored, he's skated, he's fought, he's been the catalyst and the antagonist all in one series. No wonder they want him around to mentor the likes of Getz, Perry and Ryan. This guy has done it all, and he can officially retire whenever he wants, having done everything and considered one of the best goalscorers ever.
Roberto Luongo -- talk about one of the heaviest question marks of all time. This guy has had a major monkey on his back. From great regular seasons to mediocre playoffs and crying in the locker room after a painful defeat to a conference rival, this guy has experienced it all. He was the man that led Canada to gold at the Olympics, and the man that Vancouver has placed all of their hopes in, Dipietro style. He's got three wins in three games, with a .944 save percentage, and a 1.67 GAA, with 1 shutout. It doesn't get better than that against the defending Stanley Cup champions, and your personal nemesis. The fact that he is stoning Toews and Kane on a regular basis and has six healthy defensemen in front of him, certainly helps. Let's not pour coffee on those numbers, though.
Tim Thomas -- wow. He made about four or five saves in the last 10 minutes of the game last night that were beyond world class. Some of them were screened, double screened and with players draped all over him. One of them was a brilliant second save following a rebound, still another was deflected. It was reminiscent of Ed Belfour's performance against the Ottawa Senators from about 7 years ago (yes, the last time the Leafs made the playoffs) and I was out of my seat the entire time. It's perhaps a series changing performance, and exactly what the man needed after losing home ice advantage in such poor fashion. And he's still got that smile on his moustached face.
Is Michael Neuvirth for real? I'd have to say so. He's faced quite a few shots and made some big time saves. He looked a little shaky in the first two games that I saw, but performed well in the overtime period in game one, and has gotten two wins. The loss against the Rangers in the third game would have been tough to take, especially so late, but here's the kid's chance to prove to his coach that he can bounce back and has a strong, short memory.
Brian Boucher -- talk about a pressure cooker! Walking into HSBC Arena with a better team in front of you doesn't exactly mean you get to lie in the crease and just wait for the pucks to hit you. He's taken over for his younger teammate Bobrovsky and done exactly what he's done all season long: calm everyone down. I think this is his series to win, and his Cup to win at the end of the day, because frankly Bobrovsky isn't getting it done. Sure, the Russian is going to be their long-term guy, but not for this playoff run.
With the awards due to be released a day at a time to keep hockey fans guessing, I'm going to weigh in on each one as they are released.
First up: the Calder trophy. To me, each of the three candidates are interesting and deserve attention, but there's one clear winner and those who can't see it don't know hockey.
Jeff Skinner is incredible. Coming into the NHL as an 18 year old, meant that he was going to need to be big enough, strong enough, talented enough, and competitive enough. Paul Maurice said, "there's one thing this kid has that few players have in addition to his natural talent, and that is his level of compete." He's probably right. Against every big, strong defenseman in the league, Skinner was routinely competitive and unrelenting. Skinner posted the most points by an NHL rookie in his first season: 63. The next closest was Couture with 56 points, but Couture did play 26 games last season -- an advantage that Skinner didn't have. Couture's age is also 22 years old, a full four years older than Skinner, who is still 18 at the time of writing. Couture played on the Shark's, a Stanley Cup contender, with world class talent on just about every line. Skinner played for the Hurricanes, a team that wasn't expected to compete and managed to just about nick the final spot in the Eastern conference going into the playoffs. He was selected as an all-star in his first season ever, too. Skinner's balanced statistics show that he has 31 goals and 32 assists, meaning he can both score when it matters and create a goal when he's not in position to score. Couture also played 15 games in the playoffs last year, an amazing primer for a young player that allows them to experience the pressure cooker that is the playoff atmosphere.
Grabner, yes he's a fast skater and a good goalscorer on a bad team. Yes he's a good story of perseverance after being dumped by more than one team. He's only 23, and he'll win more awards if he keeps his play up. He's not deserving of this award, however.
So that's that. Give Skinner the trophy now, since he's sitting at home bumed about how his team mailed it in on the final day of the season.
Monday, April 18, 2011
How am I doing?
I don't think many would have anticipated the route some of the Stanley Cup Conference Quarter Finals are taking.
Let's begin with the Washington Capitals and New York Rangers.
The Caps began by allowing themselves frustration at the hands of Fred Lundqvist. He was stellar and I was impressed with his overall play. He kept his team in it, and the Capitals seriously upped the tempo whenever they had a favourable match up on the ice. When the game went to overtime, there was only ever one winner. Semin's goal was excellent and the Caps were deserving winners.
Let's remember that game 1 winners are series winners about 62% of the time. Game 2 winners are series winners 70% of the time. Those are positive stats for the Capitals who took a 2-0 series lead before heading to New York.
Last night's match in NYC was a different affair, with Washington forced to come back to tie the game on two occasions. The third time proved too many, and they lost by a 3-2 score. It was probably exactly what the Rangers needed, to taste victory on home ice. Will they will the fourth game? If not, the Capitals are well placed to win this at home in DC. Could be Capitals in five games.
The Philadelphia and Buffalo series is another intriguing one. The first game was a bit of a crap shoot, and a terrific commercial for missed chances. Goaltending was quality though, and Ryan Miller truly earned his shutout in a 1-0 win. The second game went to the Flyers, with a quality victory at home that probably went a long way to building their confidence for the long haul. Having won game 2, it is important to point out that with the Flyers win in game 2, they now have a 70% chance of winning the series. Good odds. Game three goes tonight.
The Boston and Montreal series is something to behold. I truly like the Bruins game. They are so fast, so big, so tough to play against. They shoot the puck quite a bit (despite having Kaberle on their team) and they have been up against their absolute nemesis.
Montreal, somehow, are just resilient. They don't play a super positive attacking style of game, they just maintain poise, look for opportunities and take them. I don't think that Montreal is one of the best teams in the league, and I'd be surprised if they don't get knocked out in 5 in the next round, but irregardless of that they are about to make it to the next round. I think winning both games in Boston has actually knocked the stuffing out of the Bruins. I think Julien will be out as head coach, that Thomas Kaberle will be playing in Florida, and that major changes will be made to Boston's defensive forwards.
Having said that, let's remember again that winners of game 2 are 70% guaranteed to make it to the next round.
The final Eastern Conference matchup began exactly as I felt that it would. Pittsburgh's superior goaltending and defensemen took over the game and finished witha 3-0 score. Tampa's frustrated forwards maintained some poise and took it to the Penguins with a total onslaught in game 2. That's a sign that there's a 70% chance that Tampa Bay will make the second round. Game three goes tonight and could be a second chance to Pittsburgh to regain composure, while the Lightning will be looking to to take a stranglehold in the series with a second game to come in St. Petersburg.
So, looks like our second round clubs will be: Washington, Philadelphia, Montreal, Tampa Bay.
At the West Coast, things are looking a little bit different.
As much as the Canucks were highly touted, I don't think anyone expected them to sweet aside this much-changed Chicago team. I am not a proponent of the cap system when it forces wonderful, impassioned teams to dump players for their salaries and acquire cheaper, makeshift substitutes. I loved Chicago last year, and it's sad to see them coming to an end so quickly here. Vancouver is up 3-0 in the series, and only a tragedy will see them lose the whole thing.
In the second series, the Sharks got off to a good start. Their victory was what just about every hockey pundit prognosticated and all was well in California. Except the Kings just didn't care what anyone said about them and pasted the Sharks in game two, meaning that they now have a 70% chance of progressing. It's amazing to see such a turnaround. Most expects said that in order to have a chance in this series, the Kings would need contributions from Williams, and their two stud defensemen, Drew Dought and Jack Johnson. They got just that, and a good performance from Jon Quick too. Johnson's goal, and Doughty's two goals combined with Quick's shutout just about shut up everyone outside of Los Angeles, myself included. With the series headed back to LA for two games, we could see some interesting games here.
The third series has a funny tinge to it, as Detroit is playing against a stubborn and plucky Coyotes club. They hold a 2-0 series lead, but it didn't come easy. I am hoping that the Coyotes can at least push them all the way to seven games, but Detroit won game two and now holds a 70% chance of making it to the final.
Last but not least, there's a little series going on between Anaheim and Nashville. The Predators, as advertised, came out swinging and got the victory. Their defensive style and quick counter attacking makes them the Montreal of the West, though they do have superior defense corps. Anaheim's goalscorers were quiet, with the exception of game two. Anaheim's game two win means that they hold the 70% chance of progressing, but they are now down 2 games to 1 in the series after Nashville's utterly dominant showing in game three, where they limited the Ducks to just 16 shots.
So, looks like there's a 70% chance that the final four Western Conference teams are going to be: Vancouver, Detroit, Los Angeles, and Anaheim.
Game three is going tonight in a couple of series, and things could look very different.
Let's begin with the Washington Capitals and New York Rangers.
The Caps began by allowing themselves frustration at the hands of Fred Lundqvist. He was stellar and I was impressed with his overall play. He kept his team in it, and the Capitals seriously upped the tempo whenever they had a favourable match up on the ice. When the game went to overtime, there was only ever one winner. Semin's goal was excellent and the Caps were deserving winners.
Let's remember that game 1 winners are series winners about 62% of the time. Game 2 winners are series winners 70% of the time. Those are positive stats for the Capitals who took a 2-0 series lead before heading to New York.
Last night's match in NYC was a different affair, with Washington forced to come back to tie the game on two occasions. The third time proved too many, and they lost by a 3-2 score. It was probably exactly what the Rangers needed, to taste victory on home ice. Will they will the fourth game? If not, the Capitals are well placed to win this at home in DC. Could be Capitals in five games.
The Philadelphia and Buffalo series is another intriguing one. The first game was a bit of a crap shoot, and a terrific commercial for missed chances. Goaltending was quality though, and Ryan Miller truly earned his shutout in a 1-0 win. The second game went to the Flyers, with a quality victory at home that probably went a long way to building their confidence for the long haul. Having won game 2, it is important to point out that with the Flyers win in game 2, they now have a 70% chance of winning the series. Good odds. Game three goes tonight.
The Boston and Montreal series is something to behold. I truly like the Bruins game. They are so fast, so big, so tough to play against. They shoot the puck quite a bit (despite having Kaberle on their team) and they have been up against their absolute nemesis.
Montreal, somehow, are just resilient. They don't play a super positive attacking style of game, they just maintain poise, look for opportunities and take them. I don't think that Montreal is one of the best teams in the league, and I'd be surprised if they don't get knocked out in 5 in the next round, but irregardless of that they are about to make it to the next round. I think winning both games in Boston has actually knocked the stuffing out of the Bruins. I think Julien will be out as head coach, that Thomas Kaberle will be playing in Florida, and that major changes will be made to Boston's defensive forwards.
Having said that, let's remember again that winners of game 2 are 70% guaranteed to make it to the next round.
The final Eastern Conference matchup began exactly as I felt that it would. Pittsburgh's superior goaltending and defensemen took over the game and finished witha 3-0 score. Tampa's frustrated forwards maintained some poise and took it to the Penguins with a total onslaught in game 2. That's a sign that there's a 70% chance that Tampa Bay will make the second round. Game three goes tonight and could be a second chance to Pittsburgh to regain composure, while the Lightning will be looking to to take a stranglehold in the series with a second game to come in St. Petersburg.
So, looks like our second round clubs will be: Washington, Philadelphia, Montreal, Tampa Bay.
At the West Coast, things are looking a little bit different.
As much as the Canucks were highly touted, I don't think anyone expected them to sweet aside this much-changed Chicago team. I am not a proponent of the cap system when it forces wonderful, impassioned teams to dump players for their salaries and acquire cheaper, makeshift substitutes. I loved Chicago last year, and it's sad to see them coming to an end so quickly here. Vancouver is up 3-0 in the series, and only a tragedy will see them lose the whole thing.
In the second series, the Sharks got off to a good start. Their victory was what just about every hockey pundit prognosticated and all was well in California. Except the Kings just didn't care what anyone said about them and pasted the Sharks in game two, meaning that they now have a 70% chance of progressing. It's amazing to see such a turnaround. Most expects said that in order to have a chance in this series, the Kings would need contributions from Williams, and their two stud defensemen, Drew Dought and Jack Johnson. They got just that, and a good performance from Jon Quick too. Johnson's goal, and Doughty's two goals combined with Quick's shutout just about shut up everyone outside of Los Angeles, myself included. With the series headed back to LA for two games, we could see some interesting games here.
The third series has a funny tinge to it, as Detroit is playing against a stubborn and plucky Coyotes club. They hold a 2-0 series lead, but it didn't come easy. I am hoping that the Coyotes can at least push them all the way to seven games, but Detroit won game two and now holds a 70% chance of making it to the final.
Last but not least, there's a little series going on between Anaheim and Nashville. The Predators, as advertised, came out swinging and got the victory. Their defensive style and quick counter attacking makes them the Montreal of the West, though they do have superior defense corps. Anaheim's goalscorers were quiet, with the exception of game two. Anaheim's game two win means that they hold the 70% chance of progressing, but they are now down 2 games to 1 in the series after Nashville's utterly dominant showing in game three, where they limited the Ducks to just 16 shots.
So, looks like there's a 70% chance that the final four Western Conference teams are going to be: Vancouver, Detroit, Los Angeles, and Anaheim.
Game three is going tonight in a couple of series, and things could look very different.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Live blogging what could be an epic night!
At least I'll blog the early match between Boston and Montreal. That one could be so good, it could supersede anything the Western Conference matches bring us.
Then again, one of them is the battle of California, two teams that clearly don't like each other very much. The other match contains a complete opposite of last season's lineups, with Buffalo looking like the underdog and the Flyers trying to win an opening series as a top seed.
So here we go. In Boston, the atmosphere looks epic. It's loud in there, and Renee Rancourt seems to have one of those old time voices. Like something you'd hear in the 1950's, sitting around the grand piano in your parents' living room drinking Tom Collins.
Anyway, the stage is set.
7:09pm -- Chara looks like he's going to put someone's head right through a stanchion. Oh, wait....
7:11 -- Sean O'Donnell, in Philadelphia, says that he's feeling good. That's good, because he looks about 48 years old. Where's Chelios?
7:12 -- The BOS/MTL game is about one minute in. First chance falls to Plekanec but he cant bury it. Furious pace, as all 1st round, 1st games are.
7:12 -- Kostitsyn leaves the ice in obvious pain. Man down already?
7:14 -- Apparently the PHI/BUF game starts at 7:30?
7:14 -- GOAL -- Montreal makes it 1-0, after Kaberle plays some sloppy hockey. He goes around the back of the net and just casually chips it towards the blue line. Bad play, too casual in this atmosphere. The crowd is unhappy. It's a goal for Gionta.
7:15 -- Assist goes to Gomez, probably because he was directly in front of the net. Subban gets in to it with Lucic. Bad idea, dude.
7:19 -- Sorry, delay there. Wife called and wanted to know the score. No, really she wanted to make sure I cleaned the kitchen before the game began.
7:20 -- Just over 5 minutes in. Shots are 4-3 in favour of the Bruins. Canadiens are skating quickly from zone to zone. Boston's transition game is quick, too.
7:22 -- Bruins forecheck is tough. Takes the Canadiens a minute to clear it, and Price makes a save at point blank range. Literally all he had to do was stand there because it was directly at him.
7:23 -- PENALTY to the Canadiens. They're going to be on the Penalty Kill after Hamrlik sends Marchand into the boards from behind, sort of. Looked a bit dirty. If the crowd were on the edge of their seats before, they're certainly going to be in a frenzy now. Commercial break! Shots are now 6-3 for the Bruins.
7:25 -- As the special teams come out, Plekanec takes the puck the length of the ice and both Bruins defensemen have to fall back to take the puck back. One minute gone in the PP.
7:26 -- Carey Price makes a good save after an odd-man rush gives the Bruins a good chance. 30 seconds left in the Bruins PP.
7:27 -- Penalty: killed. Boston in the zone still, and Price looking cool and unaffected. Another commercial break!
7:30 -- Apparently Kostitsyn is in the medical room, hasn't been on the bench for a little bit. More updates when we get it!
7:31 -- If Kaberle totally tanks in Boston, does that mean the Leafs get to laugh having got their first round pick and a blue chip prospect? Be the first time that's happened in a while!
7:32 -- Shots now 7-4 for the Bruins. Lots of play between the blue lines. I guess that's what we call the 'neutral zone' but frankly, I'm not a commentator so it doesn't matter.
7:33 -- The puck goes down for icing, and there are more boos from the crowd. They want goals, or at least blood. Or maybe just for Chara to take someone out.
7:34 -- Is it just me, or does Kaberle not look like he knows what he's doing? Could it be that he hasn't taken part in a playoff game in the last six years? He just looks a step out of place, poor positioning, etc.
7:34 -- Kaberle gets a penalty now! That's not good. Let's take a look at the replay. It happened right off the faceoff and it's a 50-50 call. Kaberle having a shocking first period of play. Might be better that he's in the box, to be honest.
7:37 -- The kill is half over, and the Bruins send it the length of the ice. Montreal getting lots of possession and Thomas has had to pounce on a few loose pucks in and around his area. That's sort of like saying he's caught a few Rice Krispies falling in or around his lap.
7:38 -- Penalty officially over. Canadiens had just one shot. Canadiens still forechecking. Bruins get the puck and get started. 7 shots for each side.
7:39 -- Wow, Marchand should have had that, and Price made a good save after his shocking miss. The place is buzzing again, which is good.
7:40 -- Stat comes up: 8 mins 20 seconds without a shot on goal for Boston. Wow.
7:41 -- Desharnais gets a shot off, but it's too weak to beat Thomas. The Bruins take the zone and get one or two good shots off and finally Price smothers it. A crowd gathers, and the cops, err referees calm it all down.
7:43 -- Over at the BUF/PHI game, it's about 3 minutes in and as I flip to it there's a good shot by Buffalo and a smothering by Bobrovsky. Not the crime, I mean there's a nice save at his knees.
7:44 -- Back to Boston, the Bruins start to rush from their own zone but they are in offside. In Philly, the crowd is very quiet compared to Boston, so I'm not sure what they're waiting for. Everyone is wearing orange, too. Not sure if I like it or if it's awesome. It's an aggressive, bright orange. Ohhhh, some major pushing and shoving in this game now too, as Miller tries some MMA moves. This is going to lead to penalties for sure.
7:45 -- In Boston, there's a penalty called against Boston and the Bruins are going to try and end the period with parity. I'm not sure who's off, actually. but it looks like Montreal is going to get another penalty for roughing now to even it up. Its 4-on-4 for the final 8 seconds. Nothing doing, and it's over. Round 1 goes to Montreal.
7:48 -- It was Krejci who had the penalty, and White got the roughing call a second later. The period ends with shots even at 8 a piece.
7:49 -- In Philadelphia, it looks like the Flyers and Sabres are 4-on-4. The pushing match probably led to coincidental penalties. The Van Reimsdyk hits the post, but it's on the outside of the post and never really a threat though Miller was beaten.
7:50 -- Penalty to Philadelphia coming up here, I believe as a Buffalo player was interfered with at the side of the Philly net. McCormick takes Richards off his feet. That's the replay, and it's a sloppy play. Ruff won't like it.
7:53 -- Regular season numbers come up. Buffalo's PK units were effective. Philly's PP numbers are unimpressive. Flyers are offside, so play stops.
7:55 -- The Flyers PP has lacked some urgency so far, and Buffalo looks relatively untested. It comes to an end, and back to even strength are the Sabres. 3 shots each, no score, 9 full minutes gone in the first period.
7:55 -- Kaleta turns Ville Leino into a billboard poster. Literally. It was high, but legal apparently. Edgy hit, that.
7:57 -- Bobrovsky hasn't let a goal in yet, but he looks a little frenetic. People are getting into his crease and he doesn't look at all confident. It's a different competition, these Stanley Cup Playoffs.
7:59 -- Commercial break.
8:00 -- Interview with Kimmo Timonen. He's a nice chap, eh?
8:01 -- Delay in the game as they fix Ryan Miller's net. Re-drilling the holes for the pegs. Funny.
8:03 -- It's 4-4 in terms of shots, that's about the only exciting thing at the moment. As I type that, Miller saves on Richards.
8:04 -- 7 and a half minutes left in the first period here. The other game could start up in a moment, so I'm keeping an eye on CBC. Another shot from Syvret that deflects up into the netting. Miller didn't see it, went off Leino and over the glass.
8:04 -- Shots are now 5 apiece! Oh boy!
8:05 -- For some reason, when all the Buffalo defense had to do was pinch in for a moment, they backed off at the opposing blue line and let Philly bring it all the way in to Miller. A couple of half chances go off, and that 'play it safe' attitude doesn't work when you're attacking.
8:07 -- MTL/BOS has started up again. Boston are on the PP now, and there's 30 seconds left for the Bruins to make a mark. Chara is open at the point and takes a shot. Price sees it all the way and chips it up into the netting.
8:08 -- The crowd is incensed after another non-call against Montreal. They thought it was a penalty. Looked like a Bruin was upended, but....not sure if that's a penalty. Kostitsyn is back on the Montreal bench. They probably just gave him a shot.
8:09 -- Shots 11-8 for the Bruins. They rush into the Canadiens zone, but the puck comes to Price and he slows it down.
8:10 -- The other game is at a commercial break, but NHL.com tells me that Buffalo are about to begin a PP, and Versteeg is in the box for an apparent interference call. It's weak, at best. Not sure what the official saw there.
8:11 -- I'll tell you what, Montreal is getting chances here on Thomas. Bruins ice it, and now the faceoff is in Boston's zone.
8:12 -- Doesn't look like Buffalo is going to get anything on this PP. So with less than three minutes to play, it's still locked at 0-0.
8:13 -- Carey Price uncharacteristically bobbles a save and it goes to Thornton who can't bury it.
8:14 -- Buffalo called for icing in the other match, and looks like Briere and Montador were involved just off the play at the red line. Briere draws the penalty and it will be a Flyers PP. Commentary team says that Miller looks hurt. Not sure what that's about though. Last minute to play, there.
8:15 -- In Boston, Price makes a right toe save that is pretty brilliant. No rebound, either.
8:16 -- Philly pressing on the PP but the period ends. Gaustad looks like he's hurt after blocking a shot. 10 shots apiece in the period for those teams as they head to the locker room.
8:17 -- Montreal gets another penalty here, with Spacek hooking a Bruin. They have had two chances already and their power play has looked anemic at best.
8:22 -- Commercial break and the Bruins PP comes to nothing, but Montreal did get a good chance to add a second with Thomas stranded. Boston is really turning the screw here, with straight possession for about 2 full minutes after the PP ended. The matchups were not favourable there, and Chara has had several shots. Moen is on the bench injured after taking one of his bombs.
8:23 -- I don't care what anyone says about the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia -- Boston's barn is LOUD. Now Montreal has only had one shot in the last 7 minutes +. That's not enough, boys! Shots are now 19-11 for Boston.
8:25 -- The pace of this game is insane. If it was 0-0, I'd say that they'd just tire themselves out and the first person to make a mistake will let in a goal. That's already happened though because Kaberle had another one of his legendary brain farts. Commercial break, which is favourable to the Canadiens who need a break and a medical team. Bad for the Bruins because they are well and truly on top here.
8:30 -- nothing doing. Still. Not sure what has to happen here, but the game needs a goal for Boston to really open things up. Shots are 13-6 for Boston in this period, which tells you who is winning this round so far.
8:31 -- Marchand gets another chance on a rush here, and can't beat Price. Canadiens are riding Price and hanging on at the moment. 22-14 shots for the Bruins.
8:33 -- Make that 23 shots. Commercial break! I need a snack. And a beer.
8:38 -- Not sure what happened there, but it appears that my keyboard was frozen. Anyway, the Bruins are playing like they are on the power play right now, intense offensive play in the Montreal zone for the last five or so minutes. They have come close on several occasions. Sopel has blocked a shot now too. Shots are something like 17-6 for the period.
8:40 -- Just checked in with PHI/BUF and that's a boring game. The building is quiet and after 3 seconds I quickly flipped back to Boston. Can't be bothered. But 4 minutes gone in that one, still no score. Boston still with lots of pressure, crowd still loud with anticipation and anxiety. Only 1 minute left in the period.
8:40 -- Brad Marchand is going to get a penalty for interference here, after all of that. Marchand takes out Plekanec, who is a dirty annoying player and deserves to be dumped on his ass. Power play now for Montreal, but it'll be broken up by the intermission.
8:42 -- The 2nd period ends. Round 2 goes to Boston, no question.
8:48 -- After a delay to eat a sugar cookie, I've watched van Riemsdyk get pulled down and it's a PP for the Flyers. Could we see the first goal of this game?
8:49 -- Miller makes a save down low after seeing the puck all the way through. Flyers playing a confident game but Buffalo not looking overawed by them.
8:49 -- Another penalty on the Sabres here, with Morrisson getting a bad slash in on Richards. It was a delayed call and undisciplined play. This is as good as it gets for Philadelphia. Laviolette wants his troops to have a good plan going into this for 38 seconds of 2-man advantage.
8:52 -- Miller makes several saves and can't be troubled at the moment. Looking good for the Sabres here. Flyers are working hard here, and nothing doing.
8:57 -- Shots are 22-14 here for the Flyers. Sabres are getting chances though, and the Flyers turnovers are giving them some hope.
8:58 -- Just 6:15 left to go here in the 2nd period. A very even game, as most people thought it would be.
9:00 -- Flyers still getting chances, Miller keeps the score at a goose egg.
9:00 -- Back in Boston, the game has restarted. Montreal has 40 seconds left on the power play. They are forechecking, and getting nothing so far.
9:01 -- Penalty is just about over here, and the Canadiens must just be happy to attack a little bit because they spent the entire period defending their one goal lead.
9:02 -- Boston offside at the Montreal blue line. Commercial break in the other game allows me to catch my breath and take a break from the boredom. To be fair, the second period has been better than the first but not by much.
9:03 -- Just about three minutes gone in the 3rd period. Canadiens have had the best of it so far. Price fields a shot from the blue line and just dumps it into the corner, all gangsta' like.
9:04 -- Bad turnover by Ference goes tape-to-tape to Plekanec. Luckily, he's a cheap player so it comes to nothing.
9:06 -- 2 minutes left in Philadelphia. Still nothing doing. Mathieu Darche takes a hard hit and goes to the bench a little bit shaky. That's a fourth player now. They may win this one, but they're going to lose half of their eligible players, Montreal.
9:08 -- The commentator in the PHI/BUF game is saying the players' names in a funny, incorrect way. He's got Carle down as 'Call' and Carter down as 'Cotter.' He's not even from New York, so...?
9:09 -- Very even, this period from Boston and Montreal. Thomas has just made a few saves now on Montreal counter attacks. Shots 27-17 in favour of Boston, meaning that Price has been busy, and Thomas less so. As the 2nd period draws to a close in Philadelphia, shots are 26-19 in favour of the Flyers.
9:10 -- 13 minutes here, all that separates Boston from an opening-game loss at home against their biggest and fiercest rivals. This is looking bad. Julien may head home after the press conference and update his resume.
9:12 -- Bergeron has won 78% of his faceoffs tonight. That's a good number. Too bad his work hasn't led to goals. 12 minutes left now, with nothing doing for Boston.
9:15 -- More pressure from Boston. Only 10 minutes left here, and Boston doing everything they can. Price making himself big. Icing against Montreal. That's happened a couple of times in the last few minutes now, and that's making it tough for tired Montreal players.
9:16 - 30 shots for Boston, 17 for Montreal. I meant to type, too, that Lucic had a great rush with Horton where he dropped the shoulder and changed speeds to go past a Montreal player. He ended up on his ass, but got the shot away and made it look good.
9:19 -- This is becoming an exercise in futility. I don't know what the Bruins have to do to get a goal past Price, but at this point it's starting to look a little bleak. There's just 8 minutes left here in Boston.
9:21 -- 7 minutes left now, and the puck is bouncing around everywhere. Boston had a good chance with three players in front of Price, but it didn't go in despite the rebound.
9:23 -- The Bruins are getting their chances, but it's not happening. 5:36 left in the 3rd period. Other game should be going soon.
9:26 -- Sloppy play leads to a couple of chances for Montreal. Chara looks pissed.
9:27 -- The game has started up again in Philadelphia. It's looking slow and quiet, as per usual. If a game ever needed a goal: it's this one.
9:28 -- Less than four minutes left. GOAL -- Montreal gets his second goal of the game, and that's that for the game. Turnover by Lucic who is trying to do too much. Gomez drops it for Gionta, and that's game, set match. Nice try, Boston.
9:31 -- Now Plekanec, trying to win the trophy for least-liked hockey player in the NHL, draws a penalty from Chara who is petulant at times. And was, at that point.
9:32 -- Boxscore shows that Thomas Kaberle is a -2 for the evening. Hmm.
9:33 -- Still no goals and no pulse in the other game. In Boston, fans streaming out, pissed at what they've seen.
9:34 -- In Philadephia, there is 15 minutes left to play in the 3rd period. Buffalo looks as if they are giving as good as they are getting here.
9:35 -- The other game is officially over. Price with the shutout and 31 or 32 saves. On a second look, Thomas was partially at fault for that second goal because honestly, it was directly through the pads.
9:36 -- GOAL -- BUFFALO! Kaleta gets a goal. Buffalo are digging and srapping and it comes out in front after a rebound from Bobrovsky. He makes a Bobby Orr like dive right after the puck goes in, and that's a nice celebration for Buffalo.
9:37 -- So if the story line last night was about 'the comforts of home' you'd have to say that tonight, it's 'road tripping to victory.' Or something more eloquent.
9:42 -- Couple of half chances for Philly, but still no goals for them. Big face off in Buffalo's zone here won by the Flyers. Nothing happens from it though.
9:44 -- Wow, that Flyer orange is loud. I've had a second look and it's great for the brand, for sure, but good Lord is that a gawdy, aggressive colour.
9:48 -- Philly has a PP here, with less than ten minutes to go in the game. Miller scrambles, and another couple of half chances come and go. It's still looking like all fuzz and no real lint, here.
9:55 -- Phone call interruption. There is now 4 and a half minutes left, and it's still 1-0 for Buffalo.
10:01 -- Bobrovsky departs the ice and the extra attacker is on. Miller has got something going at the moment but I won't say it until it's true. Just over one minute left in this game. It's either over, or it's going to overtime.
10:03 -- It is over, and it's a shutout for Ryan Miller. It's a nice 1-0 victory for Buffalo, just proving that it doesn't matter what the standings tell you.
That's enough for me. It's been nice and not as epic as I thought it would be.
Then again, one of them is the battle of California, two teams that clearly don't like each other very much. The other match contains a complete opposite of last season's lineups, with Buffalo looking like the underdog and the Flyers trying to win an opening series as a top seed.
So here we go. In Boston, the atmosphere looks epic. It's loud in there, and Renee Rancourt seems to have one of those old time voices. Like something you'd hear in the 1950's, sitting around the grand piano in your parents' living room drinking Tom Collins.
Anyway, the stage is set.
7:09pm -- Chara looks like he's going to put someone's head right through a stanchion. Oh, wait....
7:11 -- Sean O'Donnell, in Philadelphia, says that he's feeling good. That's good, because he looks about 48 years old. Where's Chelios?
7:12 -- The BOS/MTL game is about one minute in. First chance falls to Plekanec but he cant bury it. Furious pace, as all 1st round, 1st games are.
7:12 -- Kostitsyn leaves the ice in obvious pain. Man down already?
7:14 -- Apparently the PHI/BUF game starts at 7:30?
7:14 -- GOAL -- Montreal makes it 1-0, after Kaberle plays some sloppy hockey. He goes around the back of the net and just casually chips it towards the blue line. Bad play, too casual in this atmosphere. The crowd is unhappy. It's a goal for Gionta.
7:15 -- Assist goes to Gomez, probably because he was directly in front of the net. Subban gets in to it with Lucic. Bad idea, dude.
7:19 -- Sorry, delay there. Wife called and wanted to know the score. No, really she wanted to make sure I cleaned the kitchen before the game began.
7:20 -- Just over 5 minutes in. Shots are 4-3 in favour of the Bruins. Canadiens are skating quickly from zone to zone. Boston's transition game is quick, too.
7:22 -- Bruins forecheck is tough. Takes the Canadiens a minute to clear it, and Price makes a save at point blank range. Literally all he had to do was stand there because it was directly at him.
7:23 -- PENALTY to the Canadiens. They're going to be on the Penalty Kill after Hamrlik sends Marchand into the boards from behind, sort of. Looked a bit dirty. If the crowd were on the edge of their seats before, they're certainly going to be in a frenzy now. Commercial break! Shots are now 6-3 for the Bruins.
7:25 -- As the special teams come out, Plekanec takes the puck the length of the ice and both Bruins defensemen have to fall back to take the puck back. One minute gone in the PP.
7:26 -- Carey Price makes a good save after an odd-man rush gives the Bruins a good chance. 30 seconds left in the Bruins PP.
7:27 -- Penalty: killed. Boston in the zone still, and Price looking cool and unaffected. Another commercial break!
7:30 -- Apparently Kostitsyn is in the medical room, hasn't been on the bench for a little bit. More updates when we get it!
7:31 -- If Kaberle totally tanks in Boston, does that mean the Leafs get to laugh having got their first round pick and a blue chip prospect? Be the first time that's happened in a while!
7:32 -- Shots now 7-4 for the Bruins. Lots of play between the blue lines. I guess that's what we call the 'neutral zone' but frankly, I'm not a commentator so it doesn't matter.
7:33 -- The puck goes down for icing, and there are more boos from the crowd. They want goals, or at least blood. Or maybe just for Chara to take someone out.
7:34 -- Is it just me, or does Kaberle not look like he knows what he's doing? Could it be that he hasn't taken part in a playoff game in the last six years? He just looks a step out of place, poor positioning, etc.
7:34 -- Kaberle gets a penalty now! That's not good. Let's take a look at the replay. It happened right off the faceoff and it's a 50-50 call. Kaberle having a shocking first period of play. Might be better that he's in the box, to be honest.
7:37 -- The kill is half over, and the Bruins send it the length of the ice. Montreal getting lots of possession and Thomas has had to pounce on a few loose pucks in and around his area. That's sort of like saying he's caught a few Rice Krispies falling in or around his lap.
7:38 -- Penalty officially over. Canadiens had just one shot. Canadiens still forechecking. Bruins get the puck and get started. 7 shots for each side.
7:39 -- Wow, Marchand should have had that, and Price made a good save after his shocking miss. The place is buzzing again, which is good.
7:40 -- Stat comes up: 8 mins 20 seconds without a shot on goal for Boston. Wow.
7:41 -- Desharnais gets a shot off, but it's too weak to beat Thomas. The Bruins take the zone and get one or two good shots off and finally Price smothers it. A crowd gathers, and the cops, err referees calm it all down.
7:43 -- Over at the BUF/PHI game, it's about 3 minutes in and as I flip to it there's a good shot by Buffalo and a smothering by Bobrovsky. Not the crime, I mean there's a nice save at his knees.
7:44 -- Back to Boston, the Bruins start to rush from their own zone but they are in offside. In Philly, the crowd is very quiet compared to Boston, so I'm not sure what they're waiting for. Everyone is wearing orange, too. Not sure if I like it or if it's awesome. It's an aggressive, bright orange. Ohhhh, some major pushing and shoving in this game now too, as Miller tries some MMA moves. This is going to lead to penalties for sure.
7:45 -- In Boston, there's a penalty called against Boston and the Bruins are going to try and end the period with parity. I'm not sure who's off, actually. but it looks like Montreal is going to get another penalty for roughing now to even it up. Its 4-on-4 for the final 8 seconds. Nothing doing, and it's over. Round 1 goes to Montreal.
7:48 -- It was Krejci who had the penalty, and White got the roughing call a second later. The period ends with shots even at 8 a piece.
7:49 -- In Philadelphia, it looks like the Flyers and Sabres are 4-on-4. The pushing match probably led to coincidental penalties. The Van Reimsdyk hits the post, but it's on the outside of the post and never really a threat though Miller was beaten.
7:50 -- Penalty to Philadelphia coming up here, I believe as a Buffalo player was interfered with at the side of the Philly net. McCormick takes Richards off his feet. That's the replay, and it's a sloppy play. Ruff won't like it.
7:53 -- Regular season numbers come up. Buffalo's PK units were effective. Philly's PP numbers are unimpressive. Flyers are offside, so play stops.
7:55 -- The Flyers PP has lacked some urgency so far, and Buffalo looks relatively untested. It comes to an end, and back to even strength are the Sabres. 3 shots each, no score, 9 full minutes gone in the first period.
7:55 -- Kaleta turns Ville Leino into a billboard poster. Literally. It was high, but legal apparently. Edgy hit, that.
7:57 -- Bobrovsky hasn't let a goal in yet, but he looks a little frenetic. People are getting into his crease and he doesn't look at all confident. It's a different competition, these Stanley Cup Playoffs.
7:59 -- Commercial break.
8:00 -- Interview with Kimmo Timonen. He's a nice chap, eh?
8:01 -- Delay in the game as they fix Ryan Miller's net. Re-drilling the holes for the pegs. Funny.
8:03 -- It's 4-4 in terms of shots, that's about the only exciting thing at the moment. As I type that, Miller saves on Richards.
8:04 -- 7 and a half minutes left in the first period here. The other game could start up in a moment, so I'm keeping an eye on CBC. Another shot from Syvret that deflects up into the netting. Miller didn't see it, went off Leino and over the glass.
8:04 -- Shots are now 5 apiece! Oh boy!
8:05 -- For some reason, when all the Buffalo defense had to do was pinch in for a moment, they backed off at the opposing blue line and let Philly bring it all the way in to Miller. A couple of half chances go off, and that 'play it safe' attitude doesn't work when you're attacking.
8:07 -- MTL/BOS has started up again. Boston are on the PP now, and there's 30 seconds left for the Bruins to make a mark. Chara is open at the point and takes a shot. Price sees it all the way and chips it up into the netting.
8:08 -- The crowd is incensed after another non-call against Montreal. They thought it was a penalty. Looked like a Bruin was upended, but....not sure if that's a penalty. Kostitsyn is back on the Montreal bench. They probably just gave him a shot.
8:09 -- Shots 11-8 for the Bruins. They rush into the Canadiens zone, but the puck comes to Price and he slows it down.
8:10 -- The other game is at a commercial break, but NHL.com tells me that Buffalo are about to begin a PP, and Versteeg is in the box for an apparent interference call. It's weak, at best. Not sure what the official saw there.
8:11 -- I'll tell you what, Montreal is getting chances here on Thomas. Bruins ice it, and now the faceoff is in Boston's zone.
8:12 -- Doesn't look like Buffalo is going to get anything on this PP. So with less than three minutes to play, it's still locked at 0-0.
8:13 -- Carey Price uncharacteristically bobbles a save and it goes to Thornton who can't bury it.
8:14 -- Buffalo called for icing in the other match, and looks like Briere and Montador were involved just off the play at the red line. Briere draws the penalty and it will be a Flyers PP. Commentary team says that Miller looks hurt. Not sure what that's about though. Last minute to play, there.
8:15 -- In Boston, Price makes a right toe save that is pretty brilliant. No rebound, either.
8:16 -- Philly pressing on the PP but the period ends. Gaustad looks like he's hurt after blocking a shot. 10 shots apiece in the period for those teams as they head to the locker room.
8:17 -- Montreal gets another penalty here, with Spacek hooking a Bruin. They have had two chances already and their power play has looked anemic at best.
8:22 -- Commercial break and the Bruins PP comes to nothing, but Montreal did get a good chance to add a second with Thomas stranded. Boston is really turning the screw here, with straight possession for about 2 full minutes after the PP ended. The matchups were not favourable there, and Chara has had several shots. Moen is on the bench injured after taking one of his bombs.
8:23 -- I don't care what anyone says about the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia -- Boston's barn is LOUD. Now Montreal has only had one shot in the last 7 minutes +. That's not enough, boys! Shots are now 19-11 for Boston.
8:25 -- The pace of this game is insane. If it was 0-0, I'd say that they'd just tire themselves out and the first person to make a mistake will let in a goal. That's already happened though because Kaberle had another one of his legendary brain farts. Commercial break, which is favourable to the Canadiens who need a break and a medical team. Bad for the Bruins because they are well and truly on top here.
8:30 -- nothing doing. Still. Not sure what has to happen here, but the game needs a goal for Boston to really open things up. Shots are 13-6 for Boston in this period, which tells you who is winning this round so far.
8:31 -- Marchand gets another chance on a rush here, and can't beat Price. Canadiens are riding Price and hanging on at the moment. 22-14 shots for the Bruins.
8:33 -- Make that 23 shots. Commercial break! I need a snack. And a beer.
8:38 -- Not sure what happened there, but it appears that my keyboard was frozen. Anyway, the Bruins are playing like they are on the power play right now, intense offensive play in the Montreal zone for the last five or so minutes. They have come close on several occasions. Sopel has blocked a shot now too. Shots are something like 17-6 for the period.
8:40 -- Just checked in with PHI/BUF and that's a boring game. The building is quiet and after 3 seconds I quickly flipped back to Boston. Can't be bothered. But 4 minutes gone in that one, still no score. Boston still with lots of pressure, crowd still loud with anticipation and anxiety. Only 1 minute left in the period.
8:40 -- Brad Marchand is going to get a penalty for interference here, after all of that. Marchand takes out Plekanec, who is a dirty annoying player and deserves to be dumped on his ass. Power play now for Montreal, but it'll be broken up by the intermission.
8:42 -- The 2nd period ends. Round 2 goes to Boston, no question.
8:48 -- After a delay to eat a sugar cookie, I've watched van Riemsdyk get pulled down and it's a PP for the Flyers. Could we see the first goal of this game?
8:49 -- Miller makes a save down low after seeing the puck all the way through. Flyers playing a confident game but Buffalo not looking overawed by them.
8:49 -- Another penalty on the Sabres here, with Morrisson getting a bad slash in on Richards. It was a delayed call and undisciplined play. This is as good as it gets for Philadelphia. Laviolette wants his troops to have a good plan going into this for 38 seconds of 2-man advantage.
8:52 -- Miller makes several saves and can't be troubled at the moment. Looking good for the Sabres here. Flyers are working hard here, and nothing doing.
8:57 -- Shots are 22-14 here for the Flyers. Sabres are getting chances though, and the Flyers turnovers are giving them some hope.
8:58 -- Just 6:15 left to go here in the 2nd period. A very even game, as most people thought it would be.
9:00 -- Flyers still getting chances, Miller keeps the score at a goose egg.
9:00 -- Back in Boston, the game has restarted. Montreal has 40 seconds left on the power play. They are forechecking, and getting nothing so far.
9:01 -- Penalty is just about over here, and the Canadiens must just be happy to attack a little bit because they spent the entire period defending their one goal lead.
9:02 -- Boston offside at the Montreal blue line. Commercial break in the other game allows me to catch my breath and take a break from the boredom. To be fair, the second period has been better than the first but not by much.
9:03 -- Just about three minutes gone in the 3rd period. Canadiens have had the best of it so far. Price fields a shot from the blue line and just dumps it into the corner, all gangsta' like.
9:04 -- Bad turnover by Ference goes tape-to-tape to Plekanec. Luckily, he's a cheap player so it comes to nothing.
9:06 -- 2 minutes left in Philadelphia. Still nothing doing. Mathieu Darche takes a hard hit and goes to the bench a little bit shaky. That's a fourth player now. They may win this one, but they're going to lose half of their eligible players, Montreal.
9:08 -- The commentator in the PHI/BUF game is saying the players' names in a funny, incorrect way. He's got Carle down as 'Call' and Carter down as 'Cotter.' He's not even from New York, so...?
9:09 -- Very even, this period from Boston and Montreal. Thomas has just made a few saves now on Montreal counter attacks. Shots 27-17 in favour of Boston, meaning that Price has been busy, and Thomas less so. As the 2nd period draws to a close in Philadelphia, shots are 26-19 in favour of the Flyers.
9:10 -- 13 minutes here, all that separates Boston from an opening-game loss at home against their biggest and fiercest rivals. This is looking bad. Julien may head home after the press conference and update his resume.
9:12 -- Bergeron has won 78% of his faceoffs tonight. That's a good number. Too bad his work hasn't led to goals. 12 minutes left now, with nothing doing for Boston.
9:15 -- More pressure from Boston. Only 10 minutes left here, and Boston doing everything they can. Price making himself big. Icing against Montreal. That's happened a couple of times in the last few minutes now, and that's making it tough for tired Montreal players.
9:16 - 30 shots for Boston, 17 for Montreal. I meant to type, too, that Lucic had a great rush with Horton where he dropped the shoulder and changed speeds to go past a Montreal player. He ended up on his ass, but got the shot away and made it look good.
9:19 -- This is becoming an exercise in futility. I don't know what the Bruins have to do to get a goal past Price, but at this point it's starting to look a little bleak. There's just 8 minutes left here in Boston.
9:21 -- 7 minutes left now, and the puck is bouncing around everywhere. Boston had a good chance with three players in front of Price, but it didn't go in despite the rebound.
9:23 -- The Bruins are getting their chances, but it's not happening. 5:36 left in the 3rd period. Other game should be going soon.
9:26 -- Sloppy play leads to a couple of chances for Montreal. Chara looks pissed.
9:27 -- The game has started up again in Philadelphia. It's looking slow and quiet, as per usual. If a game ever needed a goal: it's this one.
9:28 -- Less than four minutes left. GOAL -- Montreal gets his second goal of the game, and that's that for the game. Turnover by Lucic who is trying to do too much. Gomez drops it for Gionta, and that's game, set match. Nice try, Boston.
9:31 -- Now Plekanec, trying to win the trophy for least-liked hockey player in the NHL, draws a penalty from Chara who is petulant at times. And was, at that point.
9:32 -- Boxscore shows that Thomas Kaberle is a -2 for the evening. Hmm.
9:33 -- Still no goals and no pulse in the other game. In Boston, fans streaming out, pissed at what they've seen.
9:34 -- In Philadephia, there is 15 minutes left to play in the 3rd period. Buffalo looks as if they are giving as good as they are getting here.
9:35 -- The other game is officially over. Price with the shutout and 31 or 32 saves. On a second look, Thomas was partially at fault for that second goal because honestly, it was directly through the pads.
9:36 -- GOAL -- BUFFALO! Kaleta gets a goal. Buffalo are digging and srapping and it comes out in front after a rebound from Bobrovsky. He makes a Bobby Orr like dive right after the puck goes in, and that's a nice celebration for Buffalo.
9:37 -- So if the story line last night was about 'the comforts of home' you'd have to say that tonight, it's 'road tripping to victory.' Or something more eloquent.
9:42 -- Couple of half chances for Philly, but still no goals for them. Big face off in Buffalo's zone here won by the Flyers. Nothing happens from it though.
9:44 -- Wow, that Flyer orange is loud. I've had a second look and it's great for the brand, for sure, but good Lord is that a gawdy, aggressive colour.
9:48 -- Philly has a PP here, with less than ten minutes to go in the game. Miller scrambles, and another couple of half chances come and go. It's still looking like all fuzz and no real lint, here.
9:55 -- Phone call interruption. There is now 4 and a half minutes left, and it's still 1-0 for Buffalo.
10:01 -- Bobrovsky departs the ice and the extra attacker is on. Miller has got something going at the moment but I won't say it until it's true. Just over one minute left in this game. It's either over, or it's going to overtime.
10:03 -- It is over, and it's a shutout for Ryan Miller. It's a nice 1-0 victory for Buffalo, just proving that it doesn't matter what the standings tell you.
That's enough for me. It's been nice and not as epic as I thought it would be.
Night one: the comforts of home, for some.
Last night's results will come as a shock for very few.
The first game I watched was Pittsburgh v. Tampa Bay, which seemed to play out exactly as I anticipated. Marc Andre-Fleury was outstanding, without a doubt the star of the game. The James Neal/Alexei Kovalev/Mark Letestu lineup is an absolute handful, and if they play like that every game, they're going to win that series on their own. Staal wasn't terribly effective, but he'll get better as the series goes on.
Tampa were very good, and I'd say that probably Roloson kept them in the game as the Penguins started to exert more pressure. I know that most people say that the penalty kill is far more important, but as the game ebbs away and you've wasted six or seven opportunities with a man advantage with the score locked at 0-0, it starts to look like you're not making a good enough effort.
The Penguins were lucky on a couple of occasions. But they did deserve to win the game. The top six of Neal/Kovalev/Letestu/Kunitz/Staal/Dupuis is doing quite well in the absence of Crosby and Malkin.
The second match I watched was the Rangers v. Washington. This was a very good match, with two very even strength teams playing in an out all battle. The Rangers were fairly impressive but at the end of the day, Washington does come across as a superior team and they really needed that win last night. It was interesting to watch overtime because Washington didn't seem overawed by the occasion. With Arnott and some of the other seasoned veterans, there didn't seem to be any panicking. They played smart, efficient, attacking hockey and it paid off. Semin's goal was awesome. It was a coach's dream, really, because it was an example of 'getting the puck on the net at every opportunity.'
The next match I watched was the Canucks vs. Blackhawks. This was a war, though it started as Vancouver running amok and seeing most of the puck possession in the first period. I expected better play and more energy from the Blackhawks, but we did see some of it through at the end of the game when they tried to get a goal and break the duck.
I didn't watch the Anaheim vs. Nashville game, and I'm glad. It was extremely one-sided. As some pundits predicted, Nashville's collapse-to-defend and then catch-them-on-the-break system of play was efficient and effective.
I also didn't get a chance to watch Detroit v. Phoenix, and that's good because I hate Detroit and it looks like the Wings are not going to let the Coyotes have anything easily. Some of the goals were scrappy, so the Coyotes need to clean that up. However, they did hold the lead for nearly half the game, so they should take that as a positive. They also scored two goals on the Wings much revered defense, so that's another positive to take to the bank. They are facing a beatable team with a beatable goalie.
So that's that for night one. I can't wait to watch the three games tonight. Remember though, game two is the most important one.
The first game I watched was Pittsburgh v. Tampa Bay, which seemed to play out exactly as I anticipated. Marc Andre-Fleury was outstanding, without a doubt the star of the game. The James Neal/Alexei Kovalev/Mark Letestu lineup is an absolute handful, and if they play like that every game, they're going to win that series on their own. Staal wasn't terribly effective, but he'll get better as the series goes on.
Tampa were very good, and I'd say that probably Roloson kept them in the game as the Penguins started to exert more pressure. I know that most people say that the penalty kill is far more important, but as the game ebbs away and you've wasted six or seven opportunities with a man advantage with the score locked at 0-0, it starts to look like you're not making a good enough effort.
The Penguins were lucky on a couple of occasions. But they did deserve to win the game. The top six of Neal/Kovalev/Letestu/Kunitz/Staal/Dupuis is doing quite well in the absence of Crosby and Malkin.
The second match I watched was the Rangers v. Washington. This was a very good match, with two very even strength teams playing in an out all battle. The Rangers were fairly impressive but at the end of the day, Washington does come across as a superior team and they really needed that win last night. It was interesting to watch overtime because Washington didn't seem overawed by the occasion. With Arnott and some of the other seasoned veterans, there didn't seem to be any panicking. They played smart, efficient, attacking hockey and it paid off. Semin's goal was awesome. It was a coach's dream, really, because it was an example of 'getting the puck on the net at every opportunity.'
The next match I watched was the Canucks vs. Blackhawks. This was a war, though it started as Vancouver running amok and seeing most of the puck possession in the first period. I expected better play and more energy from the Blackhawks, but we did see some of it through at the end of the game when they tried to get a goal and break the duck.
I didn't watch the Anaheim vs. Nashville game, and I'm glad. It was extremely one-sided. As some pundits predicted, Nashville's collapse-to-defend and then catch-them-on-the-break system of play was efficient and effective.
I also didn't get a chance to watch Detroit v. Phoenix, and that's good because I hate Detroit and it looks like the Wings are not going to let the Coyotes have anything easily. Some of the goals were scrappy, so the Coyotes need to clean that up. However, they did hold the lead for nearly half the game, so they should take that as a positive. They also scored two goals on the Wings much revered defense, so that's another positive to take to the bank. They are facing a beatable team with a beatable goalie.
So that's that for night one. I can't wait to watch the three games tonight. Remember though, game two is the most important one.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
The view from here:
I've been perusing more blog sites and I'm gaining more anticipation and anxiety as the series come closer.
NHL.com gave some terrific statistics yesterday and I happened to think they were good enough to re-post on this blog, which says a lot. I like to do my own digging and create my own statistics. I think that most researchers have an idea, a theory they'd like to prove and they manage to find statistics to support them no matter what. "Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics," as the story goes.
The full story on NHL.com is in sixteen parts, reflecting the 16 teams that are in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Nice, eh?
Our first story of interest is about uncertainty and rookies in goal. One needn't look to far to remember that last year's Flyers team went directly to the Stanley Cup Finals with Michael Leighton. Does anyone remember Cam Ward? He'd never played a game in the post-season before the Hurricanes rode him like the wind to their first and only Cup success ever. Neuvirth and Bobrovsky are both seriously untested in the second season and Crawford in Chicago is actually a legitimate rookie. Rinne in Nashville has only played six playoff games, and Quick in Los Angeles has only played six, too.
A second story of interest would be the so-called 'Presidents' Trophy Curse' which, from what I remember, was broken by the Detroit Red Wings in 2008 when they won the Cup. Other than that, no winner of the Presidents' Trophy for the best regular-season record in the NHL has even managed to make it to the Finals. I'd say that the Vancouver Canucks are well-placed to discontinue that trend, and I'd also say that if they did, two teams in four years winning the whole thing and at least making it to the final would mean that you'd have to reconsider how important 'the Curse' really is.
How about playing seven games in your conference quarterfinal? Statistics show that the last 32 teams to win their first series in seven games have failed to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Here's one that I love -- winning the first game of the series gives you a 27-13 win/loss ratio in the series as a whole. That's a .613% win record, but it could be better. That is, it could be better if you win the second game irregardless of what the result of the first game of the series was. Teams who win the second game have a 28-12 win/loss ratio in the series, which is a .700%.
There is one that only applies to one team, and that is that no player who has won the Rocket Richard Trophy for most goals scored in the regular season has ever won the Cup. That means that Corey Perry is cursed!
There is also only one team that has ever won the cup after missing the playoffs the previous year: 1994's New York Rangers. So, The Rangers of this year, Anaheim and Tampa Bay are just spinning their wheels.
Okay, so that's that.
Now on to more 'expert' predictions.
Washington vs. New York:
Shaune Vetter -- NY Rangers in Six games, citing Washington's goaltending problems.
Travis Yost -- Washington in Five games, citing Washington being underrated and NYR barely scraping into the playoffs.
Travis Hughes @ SB Nation -- Washington in Seven.
Mike Chen @ SB Nation -- Washington in Seven.
Steven Lepore -- Washington in Six.
Zachary Zielonka -- Washington in Six.
Philadelphia vs. Buffalo:
Shaune Vetter -- Flyers in Five -- they're hungry for success, he says.
Travis Yost -- Flyers in Seven -- Buffal's streaky scoring will let them down.
SB Nation's writers:
TH -- Flyers in Six.
MC -- Flyers in Six.
SL -- Sabres in Five.
ZZ -- Flyers in Seven.
Boston vs. Montreal:
Shaune Vetter -- Montreal in Six -- Carey Price has more to prove.
Eric Engels -- Montreal in Six -- a bias, he's the Habs writer.
Travis Yost -- Montreal in Six -- Cammaleri to come alive again!
SB Nation's writers:
TH -- Bruins in Six.
MC -- Bruins in Six.
SL -- Bruins in Seven.
ZZ -- Bruins in Five.
Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay:
Shaune Vetter -- Lightning in Six, citing Roloson with unfinished business.
Travis Yost -- Lightning in Seven, citing better, healthier offense.
Eric Smith @ Hockeybuzz.com -- Lightning in Six.
SB Nation's writers:
TH -- Lightning in Seven.
MC -- Lightning in Six.
SL -- Penguins in Five.
ZZ -- Penguins in Four.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Vancouver vs. Chicago:
Shaune Vetter -- Hawks in Six, citing a curse on the Canucks when it comes to Chicago
Travis Yost -- Canucks in Six.
San Jose vs. Los Angeles -- Sharks in Seven, citing the Thornton factor.
Travis Yost -- Sharks in Five, citing the lack of goalscoring.
Detroit vs. Phoenix:
Shaune Vetter -- Coyotes in Seven, citing Detroit's struggles down the stretch.
Travis Yost -- Red Wings in Seven.
Anaheim vs. Nashville:
Shaune Vetter -- Nashville in Six. It's their year!
Travis Yost -- Anaheim in Seven.
That's it! Enjoy the games!
NHL.com gave some terrific statistics yesterday and I happened to think they were good enough to re-post on this blog, which says a lot. I like to do my own digging and create my own statistics. I think that most researchers have an idea, a theory they'd like to prove and they manage to find statistics to support them no matter what. "Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics," as the story goes.
The full story on NHL.com is in sixteen parts, reflecting the 16 teams that are in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Nice, eh?
Our first story of interest is about uncertainty and rookies in goal. One needn't look to far to remember that last year's Flyers team went directly to the Stanley Cup Finals with Michael Leighton. Does anyone remember Cam Ward? He'd never played a game in the post-season before the Hurricanes rode him like the wind to their first and only Cup success ever. Neuvirth and Bobrovsky are both seriously untested in the second season and Crawford in Chicago is actually a legitimate rookie. Rinne in Nashville has only played six playoff games, and Quick in Los Angeles has only played six, too.
A second story of interest would be the so-called 'Presidents' Trophy Curse' which, from what I remember, was broken by the Detroit Red Wings in 2008 when they won the Cup. Other than that, no winner of the Presidents' Trophy for the best regular-season record in the NHL has even managed to make it to the Finals. I'd say that the Vancouver Canucks are well-placed to discontinue that trend, and I'd also say that if they did, two teams in four years winning the whole thing and at least making it to the final would mean that you'd have to reconsider how important 'the Curse' really is.
How about playing seven games in your conference quarterfinal? Statistics show that the last 32 teams to win their first series in seven games have failed to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Here's one that I love -- winning the first game of the series gives you a 27-13 win/loss ratio in the series as a whole. That's a .613% win record, but it could be better. That is, it could be better if you win the second game irregardless of what the result of the first game of the series was. Teams who win the second game have a 28-12 win/loss ratio in the series, which is a .700%.
There is one that only applies to one team, and that is that no player who has won the Rocket Richard Trophy for most goals scored in the regular season has ever won the Cup. That means that Corey Perry is cursed!
There is also only one team that has ever won the cup after missing the playoffs the previous year: 1994's New York Rangers. So, The Rangers of this year, Anaheim and Tampa Bay are just spinning their wheels.
Okay, so that's that.
Now on to more 'expert' predictions.
Washington vs. New York:
Shaune Vetter -- NY Rangers in Six games, citing Washington's goaltending problems.
Travis Yost -- Washington in Five games, citing Washington being underrated and NYR barely scraping into the playoffs.
Travis Hughes @ SB Nation -- Washington in Seven.
Mike Chen @ SB Nation -- Washington in Seven.
Steven Lepore -- Washington in Six.
Zachary Zielonka -- Washington in Six.
Philadelphia vs. Buffalo:
Shaune Vetter -- Flyers in Five -- they're hungry for success, he says.
Travis Yost -- Flyers in Seven -- Buffal's streaky scoring will let them down.
SB Nation's writers:
TH -- Flyers in Six.
MC -- Flyers in Six.
SL -- Sabres in Five.
ZZ -- Flyers in Seven.
Boston vs. Montreal:
Shaune Vetter -- Montreal in Six -- Carey Price has more to prove.
Eric Engels -- Montreal in Six -- a bias, he's the Habs writer.
Travis Yost -- Montreal in Six -- Cammaleri to come alive again!
SB Nation's writers:
TH -- Bruins in Six.
MC -- Bruins in Six.
SL -- Bruins in Seven.
ZZ -- Bruins in Five.
Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay:
Shaune Vetter -- Lightning in Six, citing Roloson with unfinished business.
Travis Yost -- Lightning in Seven, citing better, healthier offense.
Eric Smith @ Hockeybuzz.com -- Lightning in Six.
SB Nation's writers:
TH -- Lightning in Seven.
MC -- Lightning in Six.
SL -- Penguins in Five.
ZZ -- Penguins in Four.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Vancouver vs. Chicago:
Shaune Vetter -- Hawks in Six, citing a curse on the Canucks when it comes to Chicago
Travis Yost -- Canucks in Six.
San Jose vs. Los Angeles -- Sharks in Seven, citing the Thornton factor.
Travis Yost -- Sharks in Five, citing the lack of goalscoring.
Detroit vs. Phoenix:
Shaune Vetter -- Coyotes in Seven, citing Detroit's struggles down the stretch.
Travis Yost -- Red Wings in Seven.
Anaheim vs. Nashville:
Shaune Vetter -- Nashville in Six. It's their year!
Travis Yost -- Anaheim in Seven.
That's it! Enjoy the games!
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
A world of differing opinions.
The wonderful world of blogging becomes far more intense the moment the regular season in the National Hockey League ends.
Every armchair manager, every closet GM, every wannabe coach in the blogosphere finds a method of disseminating their private thoughts in the most egocentric way possible. Not unlike what you're reading here, to be honest.
Regardless of my blog use and that of my compatriots who love hockey like no other nation, it is of interest to me that each site I navigate dispells completely different theories of whom will successfully pass the first hurdle: the conference quarter finals.
Sociology teaches you that, whenever a certain aspect or function of life interests you, you must select several important variables to add or subtract weight to your theory. In the case of the Stanley Cup playoffs, it's any number of seemingly obscure statistics, historical references and nostalgia. Biases often get in the way despite the fact that it's completely illogical to posture with your heart. Unless, that is, we're in the middle of a Walt Disney fairytale.
The Stanley Cup tournament is anything but. It is a war of attrition waged on the bodies of the players who take part. It is a brutal and often times bloody battle for supremacy and every player from age 19 to 40+ knows exactly what is at stake.
In all likelihood, each fan has selected a team to win the Cup and most of it is based on geographic location, family allegiances, or a favourite player. What they haven't done is stop, look, and listen. At the risk of sounding like a primary school teacher (which I am) I'd like to stop the prognosticating, look at the numbers, and listen to what my fellow bloggers are saying, starting in the East and then moving out West.
Let's begin with Capitals vs. Rangers.
Tsn.ca's Scott Cullen has picked the Capitals to win in seven games. He's cited Washington's injury concerns and immature goaltending. The Capitals are deep though, and immature goaltending got Niemi a ring last year. He says that the Rangers have Lundqvist as a major advantage, and that the Capitals are easily frustrated offensively. The Rangers have been anemic offensively, he also explains, meaning that it's an even series all around. TSN's pick: Capitals in Seven.
Sportsnet.ca's Mike Brophy feels that there are too many concerns around offense, defense and goaltending to truly consider the Capitals as contenders. He feels that the Rangers have Lundqvist and the Swede will shut down the big guns.
Sportsnet's pick: Rangers in Seven.
At Hockeybuzz.com, Mike Augello has looked a little bit deeper at the numbers. He cites goals against as one of the most important factors, noting that the Capitals conceded 197 goals in the regular season, while the Rangers conceded 198. Not much to separate there. The Rangers actually scored more goals in the regular season than the Capitals, due to quiet seasons from all of Semin, Backstrom, and Ovechkin.
His pick: Capitals in Six.
The Capitals are still the overwhelming favourites going in. So what gives here? Isn't this still the 1st seed facing the 8th seed? Isn't this Ovechkin's chance to play a two-way game in the playoffs and finally banish a few demons? Let's factor in that the Rangers have been playing playoff-style hockey for a while now, just trying to get in to the post-season dance. Let's look at who has the edge:
Star power: Capitals.
Goaltending: Rangers.
Coaching: Rangers (Tortorella has won a Cup).
Offense: Even (Callahan injured, Capitals are healthy, Rangers scored more in-season).
Defense: Even (Capitals are NOT healthy at the moment).
Home ice: Capitals.
Motivation: Capitals (They need a win more than the Rangers do).
Overall: The Capitals have home ice, which could be big for them. I think the Capitals are more motivated and have matured due to playoff failures in the past few years. They truly buy in to Boudreau's system, too.
Matt's new and final prediction: Washington in Six games.
Next series: Flyers vs. Sabres.
TSN's Scott Cullen says that without Pronger, and with shaky goal tending from Rookie Bobrovsky and side-man Boucher, it's not looking good for the Flyers. Even though they've got depth, they can't compete with how hot the Sabres are right now. The Sabres don't have the four solid lines that the Flyers have, but they are on a 16-4-4 run to close the season, and they beat the Flyers twice in that time.
TSN's pick: Sabres in Seven.
Sportsnet's Mike Brophy is citing the same problems as Cullen, but is counting Pronger 'in' and not truly buying in to the Flyers having a goalie issue. He does claim that Miller could steal the series for the Sabres.
Sportsnet's pick: Flyers in Six.
Mike at Hockeybuzz says that the Flyers 'limped' into the playoffs. It's true that they have been decidedly lacklustre since losing Pronger. Some of the older D-men have been losing their edge lately, which could possibly be due to their age and the sheer number of games they've played in the last 18 months.
Mike's pick: Sabres in Six.
Star power: Flyers.
Goaltending: Sabres. The Flyers have three goalies, two could start, none proven.
Coaching: Even. Laviolette has won a cup, but Ruff is a wily veteran.
Offense: Flyers.
Defense: Even. With Pronger, it's the Flyers.
Home ice: Flyers.
Motivation: Flyers, but the Sabres blow-up last year means they have a score to settle.
Overall: The Flyers have more a stake here. They have a better team on paper, a more experienced team and have playoff performers on every line. The Sabres have come into the dance extremely hot and knocked off the Flyers twice on the way in. They have been playing playoff style hockey for over a month now and appear ready to take on all comers. Philly has home ice, could get Pronger back, and are motivated to get back to the big dance because of what happened last year.
Matt's new and final prediction: Flyers in Six.
Next series: Boston vs. Montreal.
TSN's Scott Cullen says that this is a series of contrasting styles, and that the Canadiens have no hope of competing physically. He feels that the Canadiens aren't deep, but have solid playoff performers on their top two lines. The Bruins, he feels, aren't offensively explosive but do boast a deeper forward line. Two great goalies going head to head is also great to watch.
TSN's pick: Bruins in Six.
Sportsnet's Mike Brophy: Brophy points to the long history of upsets on the Canadiens side. He feels that this season, Boston is better placed to win the series this time around. Chara is his X-factor here, so effective at shutting down Montreal's undersized attackers.
Sportsnet's pick: Bruins in Six.
Mike at Hockeybuzz feels that the Bruins need to stay disciplined, and if they do it's all over. Chara could be considered for the Norries, he says, and Thomas has been otherworldly, despite the fact that Price has been excellent too.
Mike at Hockeybuzz's pick: Bruins in Five.
Star power: Bruins.
Goaltending: Bruins.
Coaching: Even.
Offense: Bruins.
Defense: Bruins. Have you seen Chara?
Home ice: Bruins.
Motivation: Bruins. They have choked, Montreal made it farther than expected.
Overall: This is looking one-sided, and it won't be. The Bell Centre in Montreal is going to be an intense place to play two or more games. However, people in Boston will be hungry for Bruins success and know this team is very, very good. The Bruins simply need to stay disciplined as mentioned by some of the experts above.
Matt's new and final prediction: Bruins in Six.
Next series: Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay.
TSN's Scott Cullen says the obvious: that Crosby is a big miss for the Pens. He also says that the new additions (Neal and Kovalev) haven't been as great as they had hoped. He feels that Tampa Bay's offense is looking good but that they are suspect on the back end and in goal.
TSN's pick: Pittsburgh in Six.
Sportsnet's Mike Brophy notes that these two teams aren't separated by much in the standings -- a mere three points, in fact. He also notes that they both entered the post-season on a good run: Pittsburgh was 8-2, Tampa Bay was 7-3. He feels that it's too much for the Pens to do without Crosby and Malkin, and that Stamkos is the man to watch.
Sportsnet's pick: Tampa Bay in Six.
Mike at Hockeybuzz feels that it is not about who the Pens have lost, but who they have as personnel. With Kunitz, Kennedy, Staal, Letestu filling in, and Fleury playing very well in goal, it's not all bad for them. He doesn't see Crosby back on the ice competitively until October, though. He doesn't think that Tampa Bay will be able to play well enough defensively in front of Roloson because they haven't been able to do that all season.
Mike's pick: Pens in six.
Star Power: Tampa Bay. (Lecavalier, Stamkos, St. Louis, vs.....Staal?)
Goaltending: Pittsburgh. Roloson seems to like the playoffs, but Fleury is a winner.
Coaching: Pittsburgh. I'd vote Bylsma for the Adams.
Offense: Tampa Bay (247 goals in the regular season).
Defense: Pittsburgh. (Tampa allowed 240 goals).
Home ice: Pittsburgh.
Motivation: Pittsburgh.
Overall: It would appear that the Lightning got here by having mercurial offense, but their defensemen have been average at best. I don't expect them to find another level. I do see the Penguins as a much more cohesive unit that can play with explosive offense when needed, and collapse into a solid defensive line too. The key could be special teams, with Tampa's power play looking very, very good.
Matt's new and final prediction: Penguins in Seven.
So that's the East! Let's see what author has the best predictions at the end of the first round.
How about the wild, wild West? Does anyone else here a Will Smith song in the background?
Sorry, obscure pop-culture reference. It happens to me.
First series: Vancouver vs. Chicago.
TSN's Scott Cullen feels that Vancouver has depth that no other team can match. All four lines boast talent, their defense is the best in the league and finally healthy, and they have Luongo in goal.
TSN's pick: Vancouver in Seven.
Mark Spector at Sportsnet.ca has picked the West. He also cites Vancouver's depth, and their desire to finally beat Chicago.
Sportsnet's pick: Vancouver in Six.
At Hockeybuzz.com, Matthew Barry is a Kings blogger that previews the West. He feels that if any series smells of an upset, it's this one. Last year, Philly would have been out of the playoffs if Olli Jokinen had made that shootout goal. They backed in, and went to the finals. This year, it's Chicago's turn to do the same, and they have the leaders to do it.
Matthew at Hockeybuzz's pick: Chicago in Six.
Star power: Even. (Sedin, Sedin, Luongo, vs. Toews, Kane, Keith?)
Goaltending: Vancouver. (Luongo vs. Crawford isn't a comparison).
Coaching: Chicago. (Quennville has been here, Vigneault is great though).
Offense: Vancouver.
Defense: Vancouver.
Home Ice: Vancouver.
Motivation: Vancouver.
Overall: In my mind, this series is Vancouver's to lose. If they lose a shocker in game one, or if they split the opening series and lose one in Chicago they could panic and start to re-hash old scenes of previous playoff exits. If they stay calm, play their own game and don't let Toews completely take over the entire series: it's theirs.
Matt's new and final prediction: Vancouver in Six.
Next series: San Jose vs. Los Angeles.
TSN's Scott Cullen says the Kings have lost too many players and can't properly replace them. Their defense is still young and inexperienced at this level, and Jon Quick is good but not great just yet. He also thinks that San Jose is just about as deep and talented at all three positions as anyone.
TSN's pick: Sharks in Five.
Sportsnet's Mark Spector feels that Niemi just needs to be sharp, and it'll be a cruise for the Sharks. He also feels that they have been slowly building to this playoff year and that they're a dark horse to be reckoned with.
Sportsnet's pick: Sharks in Five.
Matthew at Hockeybuzz probably doesn't want to vote against his boys, but feels that the Sharks are far too good. He thinks that they got the best draw they could have had going in, and that they're looking to go deep.
Matthew's pick: Sharks in Four.
Star Power: San Jose.
Goaltending: San Jose.
Coaching: San Jose.
Offense: San Jose.
Defense: San Jose.
Home Ice: San Jose.
Motivation: San Jose.
Overall: This is the easiest series to pick, and could be the only one that goes for a sweep at the end of the day.
Matt's new and final pick: Sharks in Five. Not to be a 'copy cat' as I'd love to pick the Sharks for a four game sweep. I just think that the Kings have some fight in them and Quick could steal a game for them. Not to mention if Doughty and Johnson grow up, Penner gets real? Could be interesting.
Next series: Detroit vs. Phoenix.
Scott at TSN feels that it'll be hard to start the series without Zetterberg, but the Wings will compensate. He feels that the Coyotes have one major advantage in Bryzgalov, but that it'll end up the same way as last year.
TSN's pick: Wings in Seven.
Mark at Sportsnet.ca seems to feel that with Detroit succumbing to injuries and slumping down the stretch that they are there for the taking. He also feels like it could be Phoenix's time. They were 10-3-3 in their last 16 games, and that the Wings only won 21 games at home this year, meaning that home ice advantage doesn't have as big of a lift for the Wings.
Sportsnet's pick: Coyotes in Six.
Matthew at Hockeybuzz doesn't provide any analysis or reasons why he feels Detroit will win, but attempts to cite a lack of home atmosphere for hockey in Phoenix. He thinks the Wings are overrated and despite that, they've still got the personnel.
Matt at Hockeybuzz's pick: Wings in Six.
Star Power: Detroit.
Goaltending: Phoenix.
Coaching: Detroit.
Offense: Detroit.
Defense: Detroit.
Home Ice: Detroit (they amp it up in the playoffs).
Motivation: Phoenix.
Overall: This is a tough one to call. I'd love Phoenix to win, because I think the Wings are dreadfully boring and I'm sick of seeing them in the same fold every single year. I think they have the personnel to do it though, and Phoenix is going to have to play fast, tough, smart, and stay disciplined. If Bryzgalov can steal a game or maybe two, they could pull it off.
Matt's new and final prediction: Wings in Seven.
Next series: Anaheim vs. Nashville.
Scott at TSN feels that this is another contrast in styles, as Anaheim boasts the offensive flair that Nashville lacks, whereas the Predators make up for it with defensive solidity and excellence between the pipes. He feels that Anaheim has Emery and Hiller, and that's just about a match for Nashville. He does feel that Anaheim has too many forwards for Nashville to cover all the time, and that's the difference.
TSN's pick: Anaheim in Six.
Mark at Sportsnet.ca seems to think that Anaheim has loads of uncertainty between the pipes, with Hiller out and Emery day-to-day with lower body injury. Dan Ellis surely can't backstop them to a series win, can he? He feels that Pekke Rinne will seal the deal for Nashville, and their superior defensive system will shutdown the more defensively inept Ducks.
Sportsnet's pick: Nashville in Seven.
Matthew at Hockeybuzz doesn't have a pick for this particular series because he didn't expect either of them to be the 4 and 5 seed, or to be in the dance at all.
Star Power: Anaheim.
Goaltending: Nashville (unless Hiller gets healthy).
Coaching: Anaheim (because Carlyle has been here before).
Offense: Anaheim, no question.
Defense: Nashville.
Home Ice: Anaheim.
Motivation: Even (Anaheim to prove they aren't a flash in the pan, Nashville just wants to prove that they can win a bloody series).
Overall: I think you have to give Anaheim this series. They are both physically tough teams, and while Nashville has an edge in the defensive department, Anaheim's offense has been terrific. Emery is no slouch, either, and the additions of Beauchmin, Lydman, Visnovsky and Fowler make Anaheim look good, too.
Matt's new and final prediction: Anaheim in Six.
Okay, so that's that! Let's see how I stack up against the likes of Mark Spector, Mike Brophy, Scott Cullen and the folks at Hockeybuzz.com!
Most of all, enjoy the playoffs. It all starts tomorrow!
Every armchair manager, every closet GM, every wannabe coach in the blogosphere finds a method of disseminating their private thoughts in the most egocentric way possible. Not unlike what you're reading here, to be honest.
Regardless of my blog use and that of my compatriots who love hockey like no other nation, it is of interest to me that each site I navigate dispells completely different theories of whom will successfully pass the first hurdle: the conference quarter finals.
Sociology teaches you that, whenever a certain aspect or function of life interests you, you must select several important variables to add or subtract weight to your theory. In the case of the Stanley Cup playoffs, it's any number of seemingly obscure statistics, historical references and nostalgia. Biases often get in the way despite the fact that it's completely illogical to posture with your heart. Unless, that is, we're in the middle of a Walt Disney fairytale.
The Stanley Cup tournament is anything but. It is a war of attrition waged on the bodies of the players who take part. It is a brutal and often times bloody battle for supremacy and every player from age 19 to 40+ knows exactly what is at stake.
In all likelihood, each fan has selected a team to win the Cup and most of it is based on geographic location, family allegiances, or a favourite player. What they haven't done is stop, look, and listen. At the risk of sounding like a primary school teacher (which I am) I'd like to stop the prognosticating, look at the numbers, and listen to what my fellow bloggers are saying, starting in the East and then moving out West.
Let's begin with Capitals vs. Rangers.
Tsn.ca's Scott Cullen has picked the Capitals to win in seven games. He's cited Washington's injury concerns and immature goaltending. The Capitals are deep though, and immature goaltending got Niemi a ring last year. He says that the Rangers have Lundqvist as a major advantage, and that the Capitals are easily frustrated offensively. The Rangers have been anemic offensively, he also explains, meaning that it's an even series all around. TSN's pick: Capitals in Seven.
Sportsnet.ca's Mike Brophy feels that there are too many concerns around offense, defense and goaltending to truly consider the Capitals as contenders. He feels that the Rangers have Lundqvist and the Swede will shut down the big guns.
Sportsnet's pick: Rangers in Seven.
At Hockeybuzz.com, Mike Augello has looked a little bit deeper at the numbers. He cites goals against as one of the most important factors, noting that the Capitals conceded 197 goals in the regular season, while the Rangers conceded 198. Not much to separate there. The Rangers actually scored more goals in the regular season than the Capitals, due to quiet seasons from all of Semin, Backstrom, and Ovechkin.
His pick: Capitals in Six.
The Capitals are still the overwhelming favourites going in. So what gives here? Isn't this still the 1st seed facing the 8th seed? Isn't this Ovechkin's chance to play a two-way game in the playoffs and finally banish a few demons? Let's factor in that the Rangers have been playing playoff-style hockey for a while now, just trying to get in to the post-season dance. Let's look at who has the edge:
Star power: Capitals.
Goaltending: Rangers.
Coaching: Rangers (Tortorella has won a Cup).
Offense: Even (Callahan injured, Capitals are healthy, Rangers scored more in-season).
Defense: Even (Capitals are NOT healthy at the moment).
Home ice: Capitals.
Motivation: Capitals (They need a win more than the Rangers do).
Overall: The Capitals have home ice, which could be big for them. I think the Capitals are more motivated and have matured due to playoff failures in the past few years. They truly buy in to Boudreau's system, too.
Matt's new and final prediction: Washington in Six games.
Next series: Flyers vs. Sabres.
TSN's Scott Cullen says that without Pronger, and with shaky goal tending from Rookie Bobrovsky and side-man Boucher, it's not looking good for the Flyers. Even though they've got depth, they can't compete with how hot the Sabres are right now. The Sabres don't have the four solid lines that the Flyers have, but they are on a 16-4-4 run to close the season, and they beat the Flyers twice in that time.
TSN's pick: Sabres in Seven.
Sportsnet's Mike Brophy is citing the same problems as Cullen, but is counting Pronger 'in' and not truly buying in to the Flyers having a goalie issue. He does claim that Miller could steal the series for the Sabres.
Sportsnet's pick: Flyers in Six.
Mike at Hockeybuzz says that the Flyers 'limped' into the playoffs. It's true that they have been decidedly lacklustre since losing Pronger. Some of the older D-men have been losing their edge lately, which could possibly be due to their age and the sheer number of games they've played in the last 18 months.
Mike's pick: Sabres in Six.
Star power: Flyers.
Goaltending: Sabres. The Flyers have three goalies, two could start, none proven.
Coaching: Even. Laviolette has won a cup, but Ruff is a wily veteran.
Offense: Flyers.
Defense: Even. With Pronger, it's the Flyers.
Home ice: Flyers.
Motivation: Flyers, but the Sabres blow-up last year means they have a score to settle.
Overall: The Flyers have more a stake here. They have a better team on paper, a more experienced team and have playoff performers on every line. The Sabres have come into the dance extremely hot and knocked off the Flyers twice on the way in. They have been playing playoff style hockey for over a month now and appear ready to take on all comers. Philly has home ice, could get Pronger back, and are motivated to get back to the big dance because of what happened last year.
Matt's new and final prediction: Flyers in Six.
Next series: Boston vs. Montreal.
TSN's Scott Cullen says that this is a series of contrasting styles, and that the Canadiens have no hope of competing physically. He feels that the Canadiens aren't deep, but have solid playoff performers on their top two lines. The Bruins, he feels, aren't offensively explosive but do boast a deeper forward line. Two great goalies going head to head is also great to watch.
TSN's pick: Bruins in Six.
Sportsnet's Mike Brophy: Brophy points to the long history of upsets on the Canadiens side. He feels that this season, Boston is better placed to win the series this time around. Chara is his X-factor here, so effective at shutting down Montreal's undersized attackers.
Sportsnet's pick: Bruins in Six.
Mike at Hockeybuzz feels that the Bruins need to stay disciplined, and if they do it's all over. Chara could be considered for the Norries, he says, and Thomas has been otherworldly, despite the fact that Price has been excellent too.
Mike at Hockeybuzz's pick: Bruins in Five.
Star power: Bruins.
Goaltending: Bruins.
Coaching: Even.
Offense: Bruins.
Defense: Bruins. Have you seen Chara?
Home ice: Bruins.
Motivation: Bruins. They have choked, Montreal made it farther than expected.
Overall: This is looking one-sided, and it won't be. The Bell Centre in Montreal is going to be an intense place to play two or more games. However, people in Boston will be hungry for Bruins success and know this team is very, very good. The Bruins simply need to stay disciplined as mentioned by some of the experts above.
Matt's new and final prediction: Bruins in Six.
Next series: Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay.
TSN's Scott Cullen says the obvious: that Crosby is a big miss for the Pens. He also says that the new additions (Neal and Kovalev) haven't been as great as they had hoped. He feels that Tampa Bay's offense is looking good but that they are suspect on the back end and in goal.
TSN's pick: Pittsburgh in Six.
Sportsnet's Mike Brophy notes that these two teams aren't separated by much in the standings -- a mere three points, in fact. He also notes that they both entered the post-season on a good run: Pittsburgh was 8-2, Tampa Bay was 7-3. He feels that it's too much for the Pens to do without Crosby and Malkin, and that Stamkos is the man to watch.
Sportsnet's pick: Tampa Bay in Six.
Mike at Hockeybuzz feels that it is not about who the Pens have lost, but who they have as personnel. With Kunitz, Kennedy, Staal, Letestu filling in, and Fleury playing very well in goal, it's not all bad for them. He doesn't see Crosby back on the ice competitively until October, though. He doesn't think that Tampa Bay will be able to play well enough defensively in front of Roloson because they haven't been able to do that all season.
Mike's pick: Pens in six.
Star Power: Tampa Bay. (Lecavalier, Stamkos, St. Louis, vs.....Staal?)
Goaltending: Pittsburgh. Roloson seems to like the playoffs, but Fleury is a winner.
Coaching: Pittsburgh. I'd vote Bylsma for the Adams.
Offense: Tampa Bay (247 goals in the regular season).
Defense: Pittsburgh. (Tampa allowed 240 goals).
Home ice: Pittsburgh.
Motivation: Pittsburgh.
Overall: It would appear that the Lightning got here by having mercurial offense, but their defensemen have been average at best. I don't expect them to find another level. I do see the Penguins as a much more cohesive unit that can play with explosive offense when needed, and collapse into a solid defensive line too. The key could be special teams, with Tampa's power play looking very, very good.
Matt's new and final prediction: Penguins in Seven.
So that's the East! Let's see what author has the best predictions at the end of the first round.
How about the wild, wild West? Does anyone else here a Will Smith song in the background?
Sorry, obscure pop-culture reference. It happens to me.
First series: Vancouver vs. Chicago.
TSN's Scott Cullen feels that Vancouver has depth that no other team can match. All four lines boast talent, their defense is the best in the league and finally healthy, and they have Luongo in goal.
TSN's pick: Vancouver in Seven.
Mark Spector at Sportsnet.ca has picked the West. He also cites Vancouver's depth, and their desire to finally beat Chicago.
Sportsnet's pick: Vancouver in Six.
At Hockeybuzz.com, Matthew Barry is a Kings blogger that previews the West. He feels that if any series smells of an upset, it's this one. Last year, Philly would have been out of the playoffs if Olli Jokinen had made that shootout goal. They backed in, and went to the finals. This year, it's Chicago's turn to do the same, and they have the leaders to do it.
Matthew at Hockeybuzz's pick: Chicago in Six.
Star power: Even. (Sedin, Sedin, Luongo, vs. Toews, Kane, Keith?)
Goaltending: Vancouver. (Luongo vs. Crawford isn't a comparison).
Coaching: Chicago. (Quennville has been here, Vigneault is great though).
Offense: Vancouver.
Defense: Vancouver.
Home Ice: Vancouver.
Motivation: Vancouver.
Overall: In my mind, this series is Vancouver's to lose. If they lose a shocker in game one, or if they split the opening series and lose one in Chicago they could panic and start to re-hash old scenes of previous playoff exits. If they stay calm, play their own game and don't let Toews completely take over the entire series: it's theirs.
Matt's new and final prediction: Vancouver in Six.
Next series: San Jose vs. Los Angeles.
TSN's Scott Cullen says the Kings have lost too many players and can't properly replace them. Their defense is still young and inexperienced at this level, and Jon Quick is good but not great just yet. He also thinks that San Jose is just about as deep and talented at all three positions as anyone.
TSN's pick: Sharks in Five.
Sportsnet's Mark Spector feels that Niemi just needs to be sharp, and it'll be a cruise for the Sharks. He also feels that they have been slowly building to this playoff year and that they're a dark horse to be reckoned with.
Sportsnet's pick: Sharks in Five.
Matthew at Hockeybuzz probably doesn't want to vote against his boys, but feels that the Sharks are far too good. He thinks that they got the best draw they could have had going in, and that they're looking to go deep.
Matthew's pick: Sharks in Four.
Star Power: San Jose.
Goaltending: San Jose.
Coaching: San Jose.
Offense: San Jose.
Defense: San Jose.
Home Ice: San Jose.
Motivation: San Jose.
Overall: This is the easiest series to pick, and could be the only one that goes for a sweep at the end of the day.
Matt's new and final pick: Sharks in Five. Not to be a 'copy cat' as I'd love to pick the Sharks for a four game sweep. I just think that the Kings have some fight in them and Quick could steal a game for them. Not to mention if Doughty and Johnson grow up, Penner gets real? Could be interesting.
Next series: Detroit vs. Phoenix.
Scott at TSN feels that it'll be hard to start the series without Zetterberg, but the Wings will compensate. He feels that the Coyotes have one major advantage in Bryzgalov, but that it'll end up the same way as last year.
TSN's pick: Wings in Seven.
Mark at Sportsnet.ca seems to feel that with Detroit succumbing to injuries and slumping down the stretch that they are there for the taking. He also feels like it could be Phoenix's time. They were 10-3-3 in their last 16 games, and that the Wings only won 21 games at home this year, meaning that home ice advantage doesn't have as big of a lift for the Wings.
Sportsnet's pick: Coyotes in Six.
Matthew at Hockeybuzz doesn't provide any analysis or reasons why he feels Detroit will win, but attempts to cite a lack of home atmosphere for hockey in Phoenix. He thinks the Wings are overrated and despite that, they've still got the personnel.
Matt at Hockeybuzz's pick: Wings in Six.
Star Power: Detroit.
Goaltending: Phoenix.
Coaching: Detroit.
Offense: Detroit.
Defense: Detroit.
Home Ice: Detroit (they amp it up in the playoffs).
Motivation: Phoenix.
Overall: This is a tough one to call. I'd love Phoenix to win, because I think the Wings are dreadfully boring and I'm sick of seeing them in the same fold every single year. I think they have the personnel to do it though, and Phoenix is going to have to play fast, tough, smart, and stay disciplined. If Bryzgalov can steal a game or maybe two, they could pull it off.
Matt's new and final prediction: Wings in Seven.
Next series: Anaheim vs. Nashville.
Scott at TSN feels that this is another contrast in styles, as Anaheim boasts the offensive flair that Nashville lacks, whereas the Predators make up for it with defensive solidity and excellence between the pipes. He feels that Anaheim has Emery and Hiller, and that's just about a match for Nashville. He does feel that Anaheim has too many forwards for Nashville to cover all the time, and that's the difference.
TSN's pick: Anaheim in Six.
Mark at Sportsnet.ca seems to think that Anaheim has loads of uncertainty between the pipes, with Hiller out and Emery day-to-day with lower body injury. Dan Ellis surely can't backstop them to a series win, can he? He feels that Pekke Rinne will seal the deal for Nashville, and their superior defensive system will shutdown the more defensively inept Ducks.
Sportsnet's pick: Nashville in Seven.
Matthew at Hockeybuzz doesn't have a pick for this particular series because he didn't expect either of them to be the 4 and 5 seed, or to be in the dance at all.
Star Power: Anaheim.
Goaltending: Nashville (unless Hiller gets healthy).
Coaching: Anaheim (because Carlyle has been here before).
Offense: Anaheim, no question.
Defense: Nashville.
Home Ice: Anaheim.
Motivation: Even (Anaheim to prove they aren't a flash in the pan, Nashville just wants to prove that they can win a bloody series).
Overall: I think you have to give Anaheim this series. They are both physically tough teams, and while Nashville has an edge in the defensive department, Anaheim's offense has been terrific. Emery is no slouch, either, and the additions of Beauchmin, Lydman, Visnovsky and Fowler make Anaheim look good, too.
Matt's new and final prediction: Anaheim in Six.
Okay, so that's that! Let's see how I stack up against the likes of Mark Spector, Mike Brophy, Scott Cullen and the folks at Hockeybuzz.com!
Most of all, enjoy the playoffs. It all starts tomorrow!
Friday, April 8, 2011
Mailing it in, redux.
Did anyone watch the game against New Jersey?
Are you trying to burn off your retinas?
I turned it off after 3-0. It wasn't that I didn't have faith that they could pull it back, as they've done already several times this season. It was more like, mailing it in is typically boring -- a 1-0 final score in the dying moments and nobody cares. In this case, it was one team lying down on the ice and crying while the other said, "umm, okay -- thanks for improving our standing in the league."
At any rate, it was another outing for some and a couple of Leafs got more points which will help them when it comes to negotiating with the tough Brian Burke in the off season. I was driving to work for a night shift when I heard a radio commentary team talking about the players the senior team had called up since December.
Joey Crabb, Darryl Boyce, James Reimer. Opposing teams wouldn't have been shaking in their skate-boots at the sight of those three names on the roster report before a game. The fact is that all three of them represent exactly what Brian Burke is trying to bring into this team: truculence, effort, efficiency.
The players shipped out this season have one damning blot on their resume: the Leafs didn't get worse when they left. All of Kaberle, Beauchemin and Versteeg were sent to contenders before the trade deadline and while they brought with them a wealth of experience and talent, they didn't fit in to the new system at the Leafs and were sure bets to leave in the off season, if not earlier.
This gives more credence to the likes of Keith Aulie and Matt Lashoff who have both gained big-league experience since the departure of Kaberle and Beauchemin. In fact, Aulie has stepped in where Kaberle left and contributed two goals, playing an average of 19 minutes a game.
John Mitchell will get a few lines here, solely because he was a part of the team until he was traded to the New York Rangers for depth. He didn't make a huge contribution to the Leafs and has been ably replaced since.
So who makes next season's roster? Here's the squad I can pencil in with some certainty:
Nobody. It's all up in the air. I can tell you one thing though, those who rose above expectations could expect to see either a) a nice pay raise, or b) an exit sign to a cup contender that wants them badly.
Does Bozak have another level? I'm going to say no. Last year: 27 points in 32 games. This year, 32 points in 81 games. Ouch. A career high in points and games, meaning he didnt up his level at any point during the season. The goal he scored against an inept Devils defense on a two man advantage during the last game was really nice, especially his finish against the hall-of-fame Brodeur. At the end of the day, it's too little too late.
So that's just about that. The Leafs play out the rest of their schedule and it should be fun to watch because I have a feeling that Kadri will get more time and more of a 'carte blanche' to be creative. I'd like to see what this kid is capable of because from the brief second cameo he's shown everyone that he's got a sweet pair of hands.
Until next time, when I finish my playoff preview and take a look a the Western Conference (I have delayed doing so because it was such a muddy picture), let's all enjoy the last games and the nice weather. And take in some baseball, if you can. The Jays are actually quite good.
Are you trying to burn off your retinas?
I turned it off after 3-0. It wasn't that I didn't have faith that they could pull it back, as they've done already several times this season. It was more like, mailing it in is typically boring -- a 1-0 final score in the dying moments and nobody cares. In this case, it was one team lying down on the ice and crying while the other said, "umm, okay -- thanks for improving our standing in the league."
At any rate, it was another outing for some and a couple of Leafs got more points which will help them when it comes to negotiating with the tough Brian Burke in the off season. I was driving to work for a night shift when I heard a radio commentary team talking about the players the senior team had called up since December.
Joey Crabb, Darryl Boyce, James Reimer. Opposing teams wouldn't have been shaking in their skate-boots at the sight of those three names on the roster report before a game. The fact is that all three of them represent exactly what Brian Burke is trying to bring into this team: truculence, effort, efficiency.
The players shipped out this season have one damning blot on their resume: the Leafs didn't get worse when they left. All of Kaberle, Beauchemin and Versteeg were sent to contenders before the trade deadline and while they brought with them a wealth of experience and talent, they didn't fit in to the new system at the Leafs and were sure bets to leave in the off season, if not earlier.
This gives more credence to the likes of Keith Aulie and Matt Lashoff who have both gained big-league experience since the departure of Kaberle and Beauchemin. In fact, Aulie has stepped in where Kaberle left and contributed two goals, playing an average of 19 minutes a game.
John Mitchell will get a few lines here, solely because he was a part of the team until he was traded to the New York Rangers for depth. He didn't make a huge contribution to the Leafs and has been ably replaced since.
So who makes next season's roster? Here's the squad I can pencil in with some certainty:
Nobody. It's all up in the air. I can tell you one thing though, those who rose above expectations could expect to see either a) a nice pay raise, or b) an exit sign to a cup contender that wants them badly.
Does Bozak have another level? I'm going to say no. Last year: 27 points in 32 games. This year, 32 points in 81 games. Ouch. A career high in points and games, meaning he didnt up his level at any point during the season. The goal he scored against an inept Devils defense on a two man advantage during the last game was really nice, especially his finish against the hall-of-fame Brodeur. At the end of the day, it's too little too late.
So that's just about that. The Leafs play out the rest of their schedule and it should be fun to watch because I have a feeling that Kadri will get more time and more of a 'carte blanche' to be creative. I'd like to see what this kid is capable of because from the brief second cameo he's shown everyone that he's got a sweet pair of hands.
Until next time, when I finish my playoff preview and take a look a the Western Conference (I have delayed doing so because it was such a muddy picture), let's all enjoy the last games and the nice weather. And take in some baseball, if you can. The Jays are actually quite good.
Monday, April 4, 2011
It's official.
The Leafs won't make the playoffs this year.
It isn't a surprise, so I'm not exactly broken up about it. Regardless, it ends a good run that the club has had over the course of the last two months. If only it had started a little bit earlier or even translated into consistency throughout the season.
James Reimer has been a revelation, and as far as I'm concerned he is the Toronto Maple Leafs starting goaltender going forward into the 2011/2012 season. Gustavsson is an able deputee, but not 100% dependable and still needs some consistency in his game. I would suggest JS Giguere would be the backup but with his current salary he can only fit into the 'albatross' category of undesirables -- regardless of his world-class skill, humility and mentoring value.
Okay, so that's that for the time being.
Now on to the playoffs.
Nearly every year I sign up for a playoff hockey pool, generally where each player picks position players and wins based on points. Of course, if you pick the right teams to progress, your players will continue on in the tournament and play more games. Rarely is it a good idea to pick a player that will only play one or even two rounds. Some players could pick up 10+ points in a single series, but that's unlikely unless there is lots of overtime and it is stretched to seven games.
When I make my decisions on players, I often find that my biases don't come in to play. For example, I detest the Ottawa Senators and the New York Rangers, and lately I've had some bad blood for the Philadelphia Flyers, though that may be solely because Danny Briere plays for them and I don't want him to win a cup. Otherwise, I pick the clubs that are currently hot, playing well, have an edge in the season series against their conference opponents, and then pick the players who have good playoff pedigree.
I usually do poorly. I remember one year when I was about 18, I picked the winner of the Stanley Cup to be the Colorado Avalanche. I picked accordingly, and I pick a couple of Devils too. Since then, I've picked based on what my head has told me. Several Detroit teams that have failed epically in the first or second round despite winning the Presidents Trophy. The Washington Capitals in recent years have provided me with disappointment, as have the Buffalo Sabres and New Jersey Devils. Last year the Boston Bruins appeared to be the team that could go all the way, and what did I get? Bounced.
The West throws up some upsets but let's be serious: the top seeds typically walk away in the first round unscathed and there aren't too many arguments about whether or not the 'better team' won out.
So here's what I'm going to do: I'll tell you what the records say about which club will progress through the first round, if the playoffs ended today. I will then tell you what my heart and head say in tandem, and we'll take a look at it later on to see if I was a complete moron or not. I know hockey as well or better than most people. I didn't play, but I do have a uncanny knack for seeing the game well and noticing things that most others don't. A career in coaching you ask? No, I'm not that sort of prodigal son.
Based on the current Eastern Conference standings (as of April 3rd, 2011):
Philadelphia vs. Buffalo -- The season series has Philly favoured by a 2-1 margin, albeit there is one more match to play in this series and that's coming up this week. Philly will have home ice advantage throughout the playoffs for being the first seed in the East (at this point) meaning that they'll still have a big advantage with a noisy crowd behind them for this series. Buffalo has been one of the best teams in the league for the last little while, jumping up from 10th to 7th and could jump into 6th if they play their cards right and the Habs fall.
Safe predictions: Philly in 7.
Washington vs. New York Rangers -- The season series favours the Rangers 3-1 and two of them were absolute blowouts. Washington is still competing to win the conference at the moment, so realistically their home ice advantage is almost guaranteed until the Cup Finals if they get there. Washington has a lot to prove.
Safe prediction: New York Rangers in 7.
Boston vs. Montreal -- The season series favours the Habs, 4-2 and the Habs have been full measure for their victories. The most recent was a total spanking, after it was ramped up to be a fight-fest following the Pacioretty incident. Regardless, Montreal has had the better of Boston...
Safe prediction: Montreal in 7.
Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay -- The season series is tied 2-2, with the most recent match played in Tampa for a 2-1 victory for the Bolts. The previous two games were epic spankings for the Pens, totalling 13 goals for and only 2 goals against. The Penguins will have home ice advantage.
Safe prediction: Pittsburgh in 7.
Now for my predictions. I'm not nice to the teams that I think are crap.
Philadelphia vs. Buffalo: Philadelphia is stacked and ready for the playoffs this time around. I don't care that Pronger isn't there, I don't care that the goaltending is shaky -- they are so deep at every position that it doesn't matter. Buffalo has been good lately but that's not going to cause Philly any concern.
Matt's prediction: Philly in six games, only because Miller will stand on his head.
Washington vs. New York Rangers: Washington has something to prove. The Rangers are the most overrated and undeserved team in the whole competition. It will take an absolute masterclass from Lundqvist and Tortorella in order for them to overcome the Caps.
Matt's prediction: Washington in 5.
Boston vs. Montreal -- Montreal has had the better of them in recent seasons and that's going to change this time around. Boston needs to prove that last year wasn't a fluke, and they're going to. Montreal over hyped the Pacioretty thing. Chara is a little bit of a petulant player but he isn't going to hurt anyone.
Matt's prediction: Boston in 6.
Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay -- Who is going to show up in this series? It's funny, because you feel like if Tampa wins, they will get battered by the next team they face. If Pittsburgh wins, you feel like the converse effect will be that they make it very deep in the playoffs. I think Pittsburgh is too deep and has this sort of 'whatever happens, happens' mentality that will see them overcome the Bolts.
Matt's prediction: Pittsburgh in 6.
That's it for tonight. Tomorrow: the West.
It isn't a surprise, so I'm not exactly broken up about it. Regardless, it ends a good run that the club has had over the course of the last two months. If only it had started a little bit earlier or even translated into consistency throughout the season.
James Reimer has been a revelation, and as far as I'm concerned he is the Toronto Maple Leafs starting goaltender going forward into the 2011/2012 season. Gustavsson is an able deputee, but not 100% dependable and still needs some consistency in his game. I would suggest JS Giguere would be the backup but with his current salary he can only fit into the 'albatross' category of undesirables -- regardless of his world-class skill, humility and mentoring value.
Okay, so that's that for the time being.
Now on to the playoffs.
Nearly every year I sign up for a playoff hockey pool, generally where each player picks position players and wins based on points. Of course, if you pick the right teams to progress, your players will continue on in the tournament and play more games. Rarely is it a good idea to pick a player that will only play one or even two rounds. Some players could pick up 10+ points in a single series, but that's unlikely unless there is lots of overtime and it is stretched to seven games.
When I make my decisions on players, I often find that my biases don't come in to play. For example, I detest the Ottawa Senators and the New York Rangers, and lately I've had some bad blood for the Philadelphia Flyers, though that may be solely because Danny Briere plays for them and I don't want him to win a cup. Otherwise, I pick the clubs that are currently hot, playing well, have an edge in the season series against their conference opponents, and then pick the players who have good playoff pedigree.
I usually do poorly. I remember one year when I was about 18, I picked the winner of the Stanley Cup to be the Colorado Avalanche. I picked accordingly, and I pick a couple of Devils too. Since then, I've picked based on what my head has told me. Several Detroit teams that have failed epically in the first or second round despite winning the Presidents Trophy. The Washington Capitals in recent years have provided me with disappointment, as have the Buffalo Sabres and New Jersey Devils. Last year the Boston Bruins appeared to be the team that could go all the way, and what did I get? Bounced.
The West throws up some upsets but let's be serious: the top seeds typically walk away in the first round unscathed and there aren't too many arguments about whether or not the 'better team' won out.
So here's what I'm going to do: I'll tell you what the records say about which club will progress through the first round, if the playoffs ended today. I will then tell you what my heart and head say in tandem, and we'll take a look at it later on to see if I was a complete moron or not. I know hockey as well or better than most people. I didn't play, but I do have a uncanny knack for seeing the game well and noticing things that most others don't. A career in coaching you ask? No, I'm not that sort of prodigal son.
Based on the current Eastern Conference standings (as of April 3rd, 2011):
Philadelphia vs. Buffalo -- The season series has Philly favoured by a 2-1 margin, albeit there is one more match to play in this series and that's coming up this week. Philly will have home ice advantage throughout the playoffs for being the first seed in the East (at this point) meaning that they'll still have a big advantage with a noisy crowd behind them for this series. Buffalo has been one of the best teams in the league for the last little while, jumping up from 10th to 7th and could jump into 6th if they play their cards right and the Habs fall.
Safe predictions: Philly in 7.
Washington vs. New York Rangers -- The season series favours the Rangers 3-1 and two of them were absolute blowouts. Washington is still competing to win the conference at the moment, so realistically their home ice advantage is almost guaranteed until the Cup Finals if they get there. Washington has a lot to prove.
Safe prediction: New York Rangers in 7.
Boston vs. Montreal -- The season series favours the Habs, 4-2 and the Habs have been full measure for their victories. The most recent was a total spanking, after it was ramped up to be a fight-fest following the Pacioretty incident. Regardless, Montreal has had the better of Boston...
Safe prediction: Montreal in 7.
Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay -- The season series is tied 2-2, with the most recent match played in Tampa for a 2-1 victory for the Bolts. The previous two games were epic spankings for the Pens, totalling 13 goals for and only 2 goals against. The Penguins will have home ice advantage.
Safe prediction: Pittsburgh in 7.
Now for my predictions. I'm not nice to the teams that I think are crap.
Philadelphia vs. Buffalo: Philadelphia is stacked and ready for the playoffs this time around. I don't care that Pronger isn't there, I don't care that the goaltending is shaky -- they are so deep at every position that it doesn't matter. Buffalo has been good lately but that's not going to cause Philly any concern.
Matt's prediction: Philly in six games, only because Miller will stand on his head.
Washington vs. New York Rangers: Washington has something to prove. The Rangers are the most overrated and undeserved team in the whole competition. It will take an absolute masterclass from Lundqvist and Tortorella in order for them to overcome the Caps.
Matt's prediction: Washington in 5.
Boston vs. Montreal -- Montreal has had the better of them in recent seasons and that's going to change this time around. Boston needs to prove that last year wasn't a fluke, and they're going to. Montreal over hyped the Pacioretty thing. Chara is a little bit of a petulant player but he isn't going to hurt anyone.
Matt's prediction: Boston in 6.
Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay -- Who is going to show up in this series? It's funny, because you feel like if Tampa wins, they will get battered by the next team they face. If Pittsburgh wins, you feel like the converse effect will be that they make it very deep in the playoffs. I think Pittsburgh is too deep and has this sort of 'whatever happens, happens' mentality that will see them overcome the Bolts.
Matt's prediction: Pittsburgh in 6.
That's it for tonight. Tomorrow: the West.
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