Wins have been in short supply for the Toronto Maple Leafs, or at the very least, they have come against clubs when they are least expected.
Ron Wilson opted to start JS Giguere last week when it really mattered in an effort to rest James Reimer. It was an epic backfire against what was truly basement-of-the-conference fodder, the Florida Panthers. Ironically, my cousins and friends attended that game while on vacation in Naples, Florida. They paid only 15$ for a ticket and managed to sit quite closely and cheer with throngs of Leaf fans. Must be nice!
At any rate, that's a massive mulligan that can't be claimed in professional sports, let alone the 82-game season that is the National Hockey League schedule. Wilson took heat for starting Giguere and rightfully so. He had a hot goalie and should have been riding him so long as the Leafs above-average play in front of him continued. We'll never know, and either will the rest of the Leafs whom, hopefully, won't lose out on 8th spot by 2 points at the end of the season and be left to question their coach.
So with 8 games remaining and a possible 16 points to fight for, we're against the clock and the standings. Buffalo has looked rather solid lately, with Miller and Co doing the business against just about everyone at home and on the road. Last year, the Sabres won the division and looked good doing it. Miller had a sparkling record through the regular season and wasn't terrific after the Olympic break, but with his club doing well and the rest of the division struggling somewhat, it wasn't a big deal. The Sabres were mediocre for most of this season and have started winning when it mattered: about a week after Calgary, about two days before the Leafs.
The last two victories over the Bruins (a spanking) and the Wild (another spanking) were well deserved and equal four points that the boys should be proud of. Tonight's match against Colorado has a major 'spoiler' feel to it, because a loss in regulation would spell the end of Toronto's playoff hopes, and put just about every single one of the Leafs on a golf course within a fortnight.
Barring a colossal collapse from either Carolina or Buffalo (the Rangers appear out of reach, despite how poor they truly are) the Leafs are totally out of the playoff picture without a win tonight.
I don't like to prognosticate -- despite what you're about to read after this -- but I'd like to think that the Leafs have another victory in them. They're buoyed by the idea that they could make the playoffs, and they also happen to be young, energetic and inspired, all of which could help them gain two points tonight.
So here's a funny prediction for you:
Tonight, the Islanders will beat the Thrashers. That will give the Leafs some breathing room.
Ottawa is going to beat the Rangers tonight, and that will begin the Blueshirts' downward spiral.
Tomorrow night, Florida is going to beat Buffalo. Tampa is going to beat Carolina.
All of those things are going to come together to put the Leafs even on points with Carolina (The 'Canes have a game in hand, though) and three points back of Buffalo (the Sabres have a game in hand, too).
With all of that said, here's another funny thing I did, just to prove how much time I have on my hands when I have a day off and the dishes are done, the vacuuming is finished and the bed is made:
At the beginning of the season I attemped to predict where each team would finish in the standings of both conferences. Looking back, I was both an optimist and a realist. Few would have predicted the collapse of some of these clubs, few would predict the success of the rest. Let's see what has happened since the last time I gauged my prediction: I was left with a 10% ranking, not my best. At one point in the year, it was sitting at 30% which isn't exactly bankable but means that 9 teams out of 30 were correctly placed. I'm envisioning something in between.
In bold are the teams that I correctly placed (as of now, with 8-10 games remaining):
New Jersey
Washington
Montreal
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Tampa Bay
Boston
NY Rangers
Ottawa
Buffalo
Toronto
Atlanta
Islanders
Carolina
Florida
Only three clubs correctly positioned in the Eastern Conference, though to be fair: Tampa, Rangers, Toronto, Atlanta, Florida are all within one place of where I said they'd be -- still time for that to come through for me!
San Jose
Chicago
Colorado
Los Angeles
Calgary
Vancouver
Detroit
Anaheim
Phoenix
Edmonton
Nashville
Dallas
Minnesota
St. Louis
Columbus
Only one correct! That's tough. But again, St. Louis one space away from being correctly positioned, and several teams are two spots away from being positioned perfectly. Remember, the West is incredible right now and there is still no daylight between teams 5 and 10.
Okay, that's 4 out of 30, which I think rounds up to be about 12%. Not great, but an improvement for sure, because I'm closer with those Eastern Conference teams than I was prior to today.
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Before the season began and I was committed to completing that exercise above, I went through each club's roster and attempted to do a depth chart of sorts. I was interested to see what was going to happen and if I could predict anything, or if I was totally out to lunch. I felt that I knew enough about each player, the UFA's and the impact they would have on a club and so I threw my hat into the ring as an armchair general manager of sorts. The following is just a few of the gems, some excerpts, if you will, of my two-day ramble fest.
Anaheim -- adding a young goaltender in macdonald is good, lydman and ward are a good add on defense, Paul Mara adds grit and experience, a total steal.
Atlanta -- Getting Byfuglien, Ben Eager, Brent Sopel, Andrew Ladd gives them 2 top 9 forwards, an energy forward and a top 4 defenseman without losing much. Not to mention adding 4 rings to the dressing room. Adding Mason to their goaltending tandem will help things, but otherwise they need some help. Rissmiller gives them a player they feel is better than San Jose rated him. Meyer signs for only 500k which could be a steal if he plays well regularly. Modin is nice for experience and perhaps 30 points this year. They also have lots of cap space and some good young talent. This could be a big year, or a bust year. Either way, they're building and I like what I see so far.
Boston -- Resigning Paille, Stuart and Recchi is great. With their draft picks they should contend this year. They still need to keep their players healthy. Remember, they have Seguin.
Buffalo -- Neidermayer is good for depth and experience, Leopold a nice addition on defense. Need some more depth up front to contend again.
Calgary -- Don't know what to say...signing two players who didn't work that well before. Tanguay is a good player, Jokinen is mercurial at best, absent at worst. They need someone to carry the load with Kiprusoff and to work well with Iginla. I'm not convinced yet. Jackman is decent and Ivanans will definitely make them look a little scarier. Nigel Dawes is a 40+ point scorer, so that helps. Brendan Morrison could give them a big lift.
Carolina -- Not much to speak of, other than Corvo which is a nice re-add. They need to have a better season after making the conference finals two years ago. First round draft pick Skinner looks like a good addition. Patrick O'Sullivan is a nice add because he has to work his ass off because he has a two way contract. Sending down Boychuk is odd, because they resigned him, so he must have had a bad camp.
Chicago -- Tough to see such a great team dismantled. They've lost a lot and they need to look to draft picks and within to firm things up. Niemi is gone, his replacement is Turco? Ouch. Decent deal for a decent goalie, but is it good enough to repeat? Nick Boynton gives them another D man with character. Pisani for 500k and one year could be a steal.
Colorado -- At a good spot with their youth, they've experienced the playoffs now and they need to continue to mature. They resigned Winnik, Yip and Quincy who were all good players for them last year. Let's see what happens.
Columbus -- Have done so little so far, I almost forgot to include them. Adding Moreau gives them leadership, but he's nothing more than 3rd line. Other than that, it's going to be a long season.
Dallas -- Kari Lehtonen is a decent goalie, let's see if he can fill Turco's shoes. Raycroft can be good in spells, maybe he's their answer at backup. Signing Burish is a nice move, as he has a ring and character. They have Crawford and Nieuwendyk and that's a good tandem for success. Resigned some good players, but nothing much else. They obviously feel that their poor season was unexpected. Let's see what happens.
Detroit -- still a contender. Resigning Filppula, Holmstrom and Bertuzzi to short term deals means that they feel their window of opportunity with this crop is closing quickly. Solid moves, what about goaltending? Ruslan Salei is decent, but on a one year deal it means cup or bust. He's also injury prone. Adding Modano gives them more experience, but I feel he should have retired.
Edmonton -- anywhere but down. They have the best current crop of young talent in the league. Adding Foster shores up defense, Ondrus adds depth. Martin Gerber gives them a senior goaltender they have lacked since Roloson. Let's see what happens next.
Florida -- They're not good, they're not awful. They always just make up space. Adding Chris Higgins to their scoring will help, but otherwise they still need help. Marty Reasoner gives them some depth at Center. Dennis Wideman is a top 3 defenseman, Mike Weaver is a top 6 defenseman, Steve Bernier is a potential top 6 forward, Grabner is a potential 60 point scorer if he stays healthy, another top 6 forward. Gudbranson was ranked as a smart, NHL ready player so he could crack the lineup too.
Los Angeles -- Signed Ponikarovsky to replace Frolov, not sure if that's one step back or not. Willie Mitchell is a great defensive addition, if he can stay healthy.
Minnesota -- They have to feel like this past season wasn't quite as bad as everyone else thinks. With some old baggage gone and new scoring in Cullen and Latendresse, they've got the ability to compete with their division foes. Adding Madden is a steal, though at one year they'll wish it was longer. Staubitz gives them back muscle and more scoring than they had with Boogaard. Mikael Granlund as their #1 pick was great, a smart player. Jose Theodore is a nice addition for their goaltending.
Montreal -- still have they key pieces from their run to the conference finals. trading halak was nuts, and getting goaltending depth was good. at this point, they've got work to do still. Halpern gives them experience, but I don't think it's an upgrade.
Nashville -- With Boullion on defense and Lombardi up front with Kostitsyn, they've got some decent players. Let's see if they can translate that into post-season success. Aaron Johnson is a good defensive pickup at 550k.
New Jersey -- A big Lamouriello fan here, I think signing Tallinder and Volchenkov is terrific, resigining Clarkson is solid, Hedberg is good backup but good Lord, they've got to let him play more often. Brodeur can't start more than 60 games this year if they want to make a run again.
Islanders -- Signing Mark Eaton is great because he's young and has a ring already. Adding Jurcina adds more experience and depth. Andy Hilbert is a familiar face, and could get 25 points. Weight is risky because he's older now, but has 50 point potential. Niedereitter is a first round pick that has potential to crack the lineup. Wisniewski has 50 point potential for a D man and could be a top 2 guy for them. Now if they can get their forwards to grow up a little bit and work together...things could be good. Let's see what happens.
Rangers -- adding Biron gives more depth at goaltending to Henrik, adding Boogaard replaces Orr and makes the East more interesting, but you can see that they feel they are better than they achieved last year. Frolov is a good player if they can get maximum effort out of him. Todd White is nothing but a depth signing 3-4 C, 3rd LW. Tim Kennedy is a good pickup with proven abilities in the East and 40+ point potential. Ditching Redden is a bold move for a player with a bad contract. Fedotenko is great, with a ring to add to the dressing room.
Ottawa -- Gonchar is big, but they needed to replace Volchenkov anyway. Let's hope he can still play at the top and stay healthy. If not, ouch...especially for that money.
Philadelphia - So close, so far away. They did crumble against teams then come back. That shows heart, but serious growing problems. Keeping Leighton and Coburn is great. Adding O'Donnell is decent, as he's got a ring and some experience. Matt Walker is a good young defenceman that gives them even more depth. He's old and that means between him and Pronger, and Zherdev's one year deal that they feel it's one year or burn for the cup.
Phoenix -- the darlings of the year. Signing Whitney means they're serious. Having Aucoin back, with Morris too means that they are really serious. Belanger is a great 2nd line center to have. They like what they have, so that's good.
Pittsburgh -- They've got to re-tool and come back on fire. Keeping Letang and Cooke is good for them. Adding Michalek and Martin makes up for any departures. they've added other depth forwards too, so let's see what happens with this group. Fleury needs a better year. Getting Asham for only 700k is great, he's got loads of energy. Mike Comrie is a nice signing, for 500k it looks like a steal if he gets 45+ points. Sterling adds 3-4th line body and grit. Boulerice gives them grit too, maybe a contract for him? Ryan Craig could get 40 points on the right line.
San Jose -- someone had to eat it for their early exit. It winds up being Nabokov, who did look average. Nittymaki is their replacement. He's in tandem with Greiss at this point. Niemi is their new #1 and their threesome looks incredible. Marleau stays, that's good for them also. Mayers is depth, 4th line and grit. They need something else though, just can't put my finger on it.
St. Louis -- getting Sobotka is nice, and getting Halak is incredible. I can't believe they got him, to be honest. they have a solid team and they just need to get solid midseason play from their team.
Tampa Bay -- such great players, so inconsistent. Dan Ellis improves their goaltending. Signing Kubina is smart, as it's low money for a proven winner who loves Tampa. Clark on defense is a good addition too, as is Randy Jones who could get 40 points this year on D. Bringing in Gagne is nice, so long as he overcomes his injuries. Marc Andre-Pouliot was a good player for Edmonton last year, but demoting him means they feel they have great depth. Moore is a great 7-9 guy, energy and speed.Sean Bergenheim is a nice pick up, very under the radar player. So far, so good. Lecavalier, Stamkos and St Louis up front is enough.
Toronto -- Wow, a mess. But the good news is they needed three or four forwards in the 1-7 range. Versteeg is good, as he's on the up and with a recent ring. Armstrong is a good player, a good teammate, has some graft to his game too. MacArthur gives them a potential top six, or tor four forward. Lebda gives them more depth on defense, but let's see who makes trade bait. Lashoff gives the Marlies more depth and competition for places. Marcel Mueller is another 7-9 forward with potential to be 5-6, only unproven at this level. Keeping Kaberle gives them one of the best D combos in the league, and bringing up Kadri and D'Amigo gives them some new, young talent. Clarke Macarthur is a top 6 forward, so that's a good pickup. Jesse Blacker looks a good prospect in the event of injury or trade.
Vanvouver -- Malhotra gives them depth at centre, Hamhuis gives them some durability and some graft, Tambellini needed a fresh start. Bill Sweatt is a potential power forward, but unproven. Raffi Torres is a decent pickup for only 1 million. So far, so good but let's see what happens with injuries.
Washington -- some resignings, but nothing much to speak of. Let's see if they can cope after that collapse.
Interesting, eh? That was done July 12th, 2010...well before most trades and signings had really been finalized. What else could happen in the coming weeks?
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