The Toronto Maple Leafs probably have more to gain from a top five draft pick in the upcoming entry draft this June, but the likelihood of a lottery pick is getting slimmer by the day.
Last night, the Toronto Maple Leafs demonstrated exactly what happens when a conference-leading, Stanley Cup favourite decides to 'mail it in' for a game, against a lesser opponent. Make no mistake: the Flyers are a much better team than the Leafs, and they are built for a playoff run to the end. These Leafs just aren't making life easy for anyone at the moment, at home or on the road.
So the Leafs walked into the Wells Fargo Center and walked back out three hours later with a hard-fought two points, and a victory that takes them up to 10th in the East, only one point behind Buffalo and three points behind the Rangers for that elusive 8th and final playoff spot. But what does this really mean for the club?
Well, if the season finished today, the Leafs would still be the richest team in the league and would have the 9th overall pick in the first round Fed-exed to the Boston Bruins. At this point it's never good to have a first round pick out of your possession, but at this stage in the rebuild and with the roll the Leafs are on, most pundits and managers alike would still take Phil Kessel over Seguin and whomever is drafted 9th.
Burke rolled his dice for the first time last year when he took control and brought in several high-profile free agents. It didn't work, and half of the men he brought in to do a Philadelphia Flyers-style rebound have now been led to new pastures. However, if Burke is to continue building around a fast, hard-working core there really isn't a better player than Phil Kessel upon which to start. MacArthur would be a second, Grabovski a third. Kulemin has shown that he's got top-six potential, and with Aulie and Gunnarsson not doing too badly in their big time call-ups, Burke has fewer decisions to make from April to June -- providing he's not setting lineups for the playoffs in mid-April.
The only worrying prospect if you're a Leaf supporter that desperately wants to see playoff hockey in April, is the optics of Buffalo having two games in hand, and being one point ahead in the standings. Sure, anyone can point to the Leafs having to face Buffalo twice before the season ends but that pales in comparison to the other matches they have coming up against Eastern counterparts with designs on post-season glory. Take, for example, the game this Tuesday against the Islanders in Long Island. What would have been a grudge match to see who winds up in the basement of the East two months ago, is now a chance for the Islanders to sew shut the Leafs mouths and end their playoff hopes. Fast-forward one calendar week to Wednesday, March the 16th when the Leafs begin a brief, two-game sojourn against the Hurricanes, before playing the second game the very next night against the also-ran Panthers. Both of those games are four-pointers, with the loser set to book tee times and the winner on the up and looking at 7th or 8th seed.
The most interesting games to me, fall inside the last two weeks of the season when only 6 or 7 games remain. Teams guaranteed to make the playoffs, but not guaranteed to win the conference will rest players and put forth a squad rotation of sorts. It is highly unlikely that Boston will play all of its banged-up stars on the 19th or even more likely on the 31st of March. Or the Red Wings, on the 26th of March who will be looking to sew up their division ahead of the Chicago Blackhawks. Will we see Datsyuk, Holmstrom and Zetterberg in that game, or will they be rested in favour of insurance that they are healthy going into the post season? The Capitols will be in a similar position in early April when they come to town. In their poor division, it's entirely likely that they will have sewn up a home-playoff seed with a couple of games to spare, and so the likes of Ovechkin and Backstrom could see the press box rather than the active bench.
At the end of the day, the Leafs don't have it all in their own hands. They will need to continue their stellar play, and work at a .625 winning clip if they are to move into one of those final spots and own it. I see several matches coming up that could provide a stern test, not the least of which will be a grudge match against the Flyers whom they could face in the first round of the playoffs. Or will it be the Bruins, whom they face off against twice before the regular season ends? Either way, it's nice to see story lines emerging and rivalries intensifying as things go forward.
One wonders, just for a moment, where the Leafs would be had they not been so profligate in front of goal against the Senators just a week ago, or had they held their lead against the Penguins instead of losing 6-5 in the shootout. These days, 3 points would take them to 7th and the optics of 7th with 17 games to go is a lot more positive than 10th with 17 games to go.
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There's nothing I love more than hockey in the early Spring. There's just something about watching conference heavyweights, whether they be from the East or the West coming together to play and play hard. Nearly a dozen minutes can go by without a whistle and nary a penalty can be had. Clubs that have finished fighting for the playoffs and have successfully attained a berth with games to spare can really put on a tantalizing show for supporters and neutrals alike.
On the flip side of such a match-up would be the clubs that use these final games as a chance to call up some young talent from their AHL equivalent. Ottawa is currently using their final games as a showcase for their drafted talent, or players they have acquired through a trade. Anderson is putting on a clinic for all former and future goaltenders if you haven't been watching. The Islanders are playing like a team released from the clutches of an anal-retentive dominatrix. Like that imagery?
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To complete my Toronto notes, let's take a moment to mention James Reimer. Once again, stellar from minute one to minute sixty. He's playing beyond his years and has inspired confidence from his defensemen all the way through to the veterans up front. The coach and GM have him pencilled in as at least the backup goalie for next year, and with major uncertainty around JS Giguere's contract and inconsistencies, not to mention Gustavsson's health issues and overall sloppy play it is starting to look like 'Optimus Reim' could be around the big club to stay.
Versteeg coming back to bite the Leafs for two goals isn't a surprise, and anyone who was shocked that he jumped out and bagged a couple should take a good hard look at their hockey knowledge. In most sports, players who are traded to another team often come back to their original club and score, play brilliantly or at least contribute to its downfall. It was inevitable. I would have picked Versteeg to get at least one point last night and be an overall plus player. Regardless, he was outshone by the hard work of Darryl Boyce, of Kulemin, and even Keith Aulie who was a +2 overall, despite being culpable for one of the Flyers goals. That's just inexperience, something that will surely be eradicated over time. Starting to look like a good trade in Toronto's favour, eh?
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Can we just say one thing about the 30 clubs overall? Does anyone in the East have a better overall team concept defensively and offensively than the Boston Bruins? Their two goaltenders are the best in the league, hands down. They have a bonafide starter and terrific backup. They have a very solid defensive core and just the right amount of young talent up front, grinders and physical role players, and a smattering of super-talent on their top two lines. Sure Philadelphia looks better from a depth perspective, but after facing the Leafs last night their aging blue liners looked a little exhausted chasing around the super-quick top two Leafs lines. Add to that, the statistic that backs me up -- they've been outscored something like 11-4 in the 3rd period in the past 5 or 6 games. That's not good news going into the playoffs where the fresher you are, the better your chances of winning. I know that O'Donnell and Pronger are seasoned and experienced veterans, but do you get the feeling that they are a little tired right about now? What about Timonen, too?
Now, take that little ditty I just wrote about Boston and copy/paste the Vancouver Canucks into that paragraph. Ditto for their 12 forwards, their top 6 defensemen who are getting better and healthier with each passing day, and their goal tending which is rarely out-dueled. It's not just experience that wins the Stanley Cup and takes your team from above-average to great; it's the right mixture of youth, talent and of course, the perfect understudy to your #1 stud goalie. Vancouver has it, Boston has it.
The Flyers also have serious question marks over their goalies, which really makes writing this redundant because pundits were asking the same questions last year and it wound up with them in the Stanley Cup final. This time around, there's no Michael Leighton to jump into the lineup and immediately gain the confidence of those around him. Everyone is a year older, with higher expectations and a loss earlier than the Stanley Cup final will likely see some 'rebuilding' occur come June.
Another major dark horse (if you can ever call them that) would be San Jose. They're always up there competing for the Presidents Trophy and the Art Ross seems to be something that one or more of their players flirt with season to season. They have some solid goaltending right now, and it's that man, Niemi coming back to the fray. Amazing to see him getting hot again in March, preparing to lead his team into a long playoff run. I, for one, would love to see the Sharks get a monkey off their backs. Wouldn't that be a great series, Canucks and Sharks? Think of the blood and guts you'd see, Niemi vs. Luongo, Thornton and Marleau vs. the Sedins. Just thinking about it makes me want to fast-forward eight weeks and see what happens.
So what was an attempt at a quick entry has now become an epic. If only I put this much effort into cleaning the house....
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