Thursday, March 24, 2011

What a difference a week makes. Or....30 games.

Wins have been in short supply for the Toronto Maple Leafs, or at the very least, they have come against clubs when they are least expected.

Ron Wilson opted to start JS Giguere last week when it really mattered in an effort to rest James Reimer. It was an epic backfire against what was truly basement-of-the-conference fodder, the Florida Panthers. Ironically, my cousins and friends attended that game while on vacation in Naples, Florida. They paid only 15$ for a ticket and managed to sit quite closely and cheer with throngs of Leaf fans. Must be nice!

At any rate, that's a massive mulligan that can't be claimed in professional sports, let alone the 82-game season that is the National Hockey League schedule. Wilson took heat for starting Giguere and rightfully so. He had a hot goalie and should have been riding him so long as the Leafs above-average play in front of him continued. We'll never know, and either will the rest of the Leafs whom, hopefully, won't lose out on 8th spot by 2 points at the end of the season and be left to question their coach.
So with 8 games remaining and a possible 16 points to fight for, we're against the clock and the standings. Buffalo has looked rather solid lately, with Miller and Co doing the business against just about everyone at home and on the road. Last year, the Sabres won the division and looked good doing it. Miller had a sparkling record through the regular season and wasn't terrific after the Olympic break, but with his club doing well and the rest of the division struggling somewhat, it wasn't a big deal. The Sabres were mediocre for most of this season and have started winning when it mattered: about a week after Calgary, about two days before the Leafs.

The last two victories over the Bruins (a spanking) and the Wild (another spanking) were well deserved and equal four points that the boys should be proud of. Tonight's match against Colorado has a major 'spoiler' feel to it, because a loss in regulation would spell the end of Toronto's playoff hopes, and put just about every single one of the Leafs on a golf course within a fortnight.

Barring a colossal collapse from either Carolina or Buffalo (the Rangers appear out of reach, despite how poor they truly are) the Leafs are totally out of the playoff picture without a win tonight.

I don't like to prognosticate -- despite what you're about to read after this -- but I'd like to think that the Leafs have another victory in them. They're buoyed by the idea that they could make the playoffs, and they also happen to be young, energetic and inspired, all of which could help them gain two points tonight.

So here's a funny prediction for you:

Tonight, the Islanders will beat the Thrashers. That will give the Leafs some breathing room.

Ottawa is going to beat the Rangers tonight, and that will begin the Blueshirts' downward spiral.

Tomorrow night, Florida is going to beat Buffalo. Tampa is going to beat Carolina.

All of those things are going to come together to put the Leafs even on points with Carolina (The 'Canes have a game in hand, though) and three points back of Buffalo (the Sabres have a game in hand, too).

With all of that said, here's another funny thing I did, just to prove how much time I have on my hands when I have a day off and the dishes are done, the vacuuming is finished and the bed is made:

At the beginning of the season I attemped to predict where each team would finish in the standings of both conferences. Looking back, I was both an optimist and a realist. Few would have predicted the collapse of some of these clubs, few would predict the success of the rest. Let's see what has happened since the last time I gauged my prediction: I was left with a 10% ranking, not my best. At one point in the year, it was sitting at 30% which isn't exactly bankable but means that 9 teams out of 30 were correctly placed. I'm envisioning something in between.

In bold are the teams that I correctly placed (as of now, with 8-10 games remaining):

New Jersey
Washington
Montreal
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Tampa Bay
Boston
NY Rangers
Ottawa
Buffalo
Toronto
Atlanta
Islanders
Carolina
Florida

Only three clubs correctly positioned in the Eastern Conference, though to be fair: Tampa, Rangers, Toronto, Atlanta, Florida are all within one place of where I said they'd be -- still time for that to come through for me!

San Jose
Chicago
Colorado
Los Angeles
Calgary
Vancouver
Detroit
Anaheim
Phoenix
Edmonton
Nashville
Dallas
Minnesota
St. Louis
Columbus

Only one correct! That's tough. But again, St. Louis one space away from being correctly positioned, and several teams are two spots away from being positioned perfectly. Remember, the West is incredible right now and there is still no daylight between teams 5 and 10.

Okay, that's 4 out of 30, which I think rounds up to be about 12%. Not great, but an improvement for sure, because I'm closer with those Eastern Conference teams than I was prior to today.

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Before the season began and I was committed to completing that exercise above, I went through each club's roster and attempted to do a depth chart of sorts. I was interested to see what was going to happen and if I could predict anything, or if I was totally out to lunch. I felt that I knew enough about each player, the UFA's and the impact they would have on a club and so I threw my hat into the ring as an armchair general manager of sorts. The following is just a few of the gems, some excerpts, if you will, of my two-day ramble fest.

Anaheim -- adding a young goaltender in macdonald is good, lydman and ward are a good add on defense, Paul Mara adds grit and experience, a total steal.

Atlanta -- Getting Byfuglien, Ben Eager, Brent Sopel, Andrew Ladd gives them 2 top 9 forwards, an energy forward and a top 4 defenseman without losing much. Not to mention adding 4 rings to the dressing room. Adding Mason to their goaltending tandem will help things, but otherwise they need some help. Rissmiller gives them a player they feel is better than San Jose rated him. Meyer signs for only 500k which could be a steal if he plays well regularly. Modin is nice for experience and perhaps 30 points this year. They also have lots of cap space and some good young talent. This could be a big year, or a bust year. Either way, they're building and I like what I see so far.

Boston -- Resigning Paille, Stuart and Recchi is great. With their draft picks they should contend this year. They still need to keep their players healthy. Remember, they have Seguin.

Buffalo -- Neidermayer is good for depth and experience, Leopold a nice addition on defense. Need some more depth up front to contend again.

Calgary -- Don't know what to say...signing two players who didn't work that well before. Tanguay is a good player, Jokinen is mercurial at best, absent at worst. They need someone to carry the load with Kiprusoff and to work well with Iginla. I'm not convinced yet. Jackman is decent and Ivanans will definitely make them look a little scarier. Nigel Dawes is a 40+ point scorer, so that helps. Brendan Morrison could give them a big lift.

Carolina -- Not much to speak of, other than Corvo which is a nice re-add. They need to have a better season after making the conference finals two years ago. First round draft pick Skinner looks like a good addition. Patrick O'Sullivan is a nice add because he has to work his ass off because he has a two way contract. Sending down Boychuk is odd, because they resigned him, so he must have had a bad camp.

Chicago -- Tough to see such a great team dismantled. They've lost a lot and they need to look to draft picks and within to firm things up. Niemi is gone, his replacement is Turco? Ouch. Decent deal for a decent goalie, but is it good enough to repeat? Nick Boynton gives them another D man with character. Pisani for 500k and one year could be a steal.

Colorado -- At a good spot with their youth, they've experienced the playoffs now and they need to continue to mature. They resigned Winnik, Yip and Quincy who were all good players for them last year. Let's see what happens.

Columbus -- Have done so little so far, I almost forgot to include them. Adding Moreau gives them leadership, but he's nothing more than 3rd line. Other than that, it's going to be a long season.

Dallas -- Kari Lehtonen is a decent goalie, let's see if he can fill Turco's shoes. Raycroft can be good in spells, maybe he's their answer at backup. Signing Burish is a nice move, as he has a ring and character. They have Crawford and Nieuwendyk and that's a good tandem for success. Resigned some good players, but nothing much else. They obviously feel that their poor season was unexpected. Let's see what happens.

Detroit -- still a contender. Resigning Filppula, Holmstrom and Bertuzzi to short term deals means that they feel their window of opportunity with this crop is closing quickly. Solid moves, what about goaltending? Ruslan Salei is decent, but on a one year deal it means cup or bust. He's also injury prone. Adding Modano gives them more experience, but I feel he should have retired.

Edmonton -- anywhere but down. They have the best current crop of young talent in the league. Adding Foster shores up defense, Ondrus adds depth. Martin Gerber gives them a senior goaltender they have lacked since Roloson. Let's see what happens next.

Florida -- They're not good, they're not awful. They always just make up space. Adding Chris Higgins to their scoring will help, but otherwise they still need help. Marty Reasoner gives them some depth at Center. Dennis Wideman is a top 3 defenseman, Mike Weaver is a top 6 defenseman, Steve Bernier is a potential top 6 forward, Grabner is a potential 60 point scorer if he stays healthy, another top 6 forward. Gudbranson was ranked as a smart, NHL ready player so he could crack the lineup too.

Los Angeles -- Signed Ponikarovsky to replace Frolov, not sure if that's one step back or not. Willie Mitchell is a great defensive addition, if he can stay healthy.

Minnesota -- They have to feel like this past season wasn't quite as bad as everyone else thinks. With some old baggage gone and new scoring in Cullen and Latendresse, they've got the ability to compete with their division foes. Adding Madden is a steal, though at one year they'll wish it was longer. Staubitz gives them back muscle and more scoring than they had with Boogaard. Mikael Granlund as their #1 pick was great, a smart player. Jose Theodore is a nice addition for their goaltending.

Montreal -- still have they key pieces from their run to the conference finals. trading halak was nuts, and getting goaltending depth was good. at this point, they've got work to do still. Halpern gives them experience, but I don't think it's an upgrade.

Nashville -- With Boullion on defense and Lombardi up front with Kostitsyn, they've got some decent players. Let's see if they can translate that into post-season success. Aaron Johnson is a good defensive pickup at 550k.

New Jersey -- A big Lamouriello fan here, I think signing Tallinder and Volchenkov is terrific, resigining Clarkson is solid, Hedberg is good backup but good Lord, they've got to let him play more often. Brodeur can't start more than 60 games this year if they want to make a run again.

Islanders -- Signing Mark Eaton is great because he's young and has a ring already. Adding Jurcina adds more experience and depth. Andy Hilbert is a familiar face, and could get 25 points. Weight is risky because he's older now, but has 50 point potential. Niedereitter is a first round pick that has potential to crack the lineup. Wisniewski has 50 point potential for a D man and could be a top 2 guy for them. Now if they can get their forwards to grow up a little bit and work together...things could be good. Let's see what happens.

Rangers -- adding Biron gives more depth at goaltending to Henrik, adding Boogaard replaces Orr and makes the East more interesting, but you can see that they feel they are better than they achieved last year. Frolov is a good player if they can get maximum effort out of him. Todd White is nothing but a depth signing 3-4 C, 3rd LW. Tim Kennedy is a good pickup with proven abilities in the East and 40+ point potential. Ditching Redden is a bold move for a player with a bad contract. Fedotenko is great, with a ring to add to the dressing room.

Ottawa -- Gonchar is big, but they needed to replace Volchenkov anyway. Let's hope he can still play at the top and stay healthy. If not, ouch...especially for that money.

Philadelphia - So close, so far away. They did crumble against teams then come back. That shows heart, but serious growing problems. Keeping Leighton and Coburn is great. Adding O'Donnell is decent, as he's got a ring and some experience. Matt Walker is a good young defenceman that gives them even more depth. He's old and that means between him and Pronger, and Zherdev's one year deal that they feel it's one year or burn for the cup.

Phoenix -- the darlings of the year. Signing Whitney means they're serious. Having Aucoin back, with Morris too means that they are really serious. Belanger is a great 2nd line center to have. They like what they have, so that's good.

Pittsburgh -- They've got to re-tool and come back on fire. Keeping Letang and Cooke is good for them. Adding Michalek and Martin makes up for any departures. they've added other depth forwards too, so let's see what happens with this group. Fleury needs a better year. Getting Asham for only 700k is great, he's got loads of energy. Mike Comrie is a nice signing, for 500k it looks like a steal if he gets 45+ points. Sterling adds 3-4th line body and grit. Boulerice gives them grit too, maybe a contract for him? Ryan Craig could get 40 points on the right line.

San Jose -- someone had to eat it for their early exit. It winds up being Nabokov, who did look average. Nittymaki is their replacement. He's in tandem with Greiss at this point. Niemi is their new #1 and their threesome looks incredible. Marleau stays, that's good for them also. Mayers is depth, 4th line and grit. They need something else though, just can't put my finger on it.

St. Louis -- getting Sobotka is nice, and getting Halak is incredible. I can't believe they got him, to be honest. they have a solid team and they just need to get solid midseason play from their team.

Tampa Bay -- such great players, so inconsistent. Dan Ellis improves their goaltending. Signing Kubina is smart, as it's low money for a proven winner who loves Tampa. Clark on defense is a good addition too, as is Randy Jones who could get 40 points this year on D. Bringing in Gagne is nice, so long as he overcomes his injuries. Marc Andre-Pouliot was a good player for Edmonton last year, but demoting him means they feel they have great depth. Moore is a great 7-9 guy, energy and speed.Sean Bergenheim is a nice pick up, very under the radar player. So far, so good. Lecavalier, Stamkos and St Louis up front is enough.

Toronto -- Wow, a mess. But the good news is they needed three or four forwards in the 1-7 range. Versteeg is good, as he's on the up and with a recent ring. Armstrong is a good player, a good teammate, has some graft to his game too. MacArthur gives them a potential top six, or tor four forward. Lebda gives them more depth on defense, but let's see who makes trade bait. Lashoff gives the Marlies more depth and competition for places. Marcel Mueller is another 7-9 forward with potential to be 5-6, only unproven at this level. Keeping Kaberle gives them one of the best D combos in the league, and bringing up Kadri and D'Amigo gives them some new, young talent. Clarke Macarthur is a top 6 forward, so that's a good pickup. Jesse Blacker looks a good prospect in the event of injury or trade.

Vanvouver -- Malhotra gives them depth at centre, Hamhuis gives them some durability and some graft, Tambellini needed a fresh start. Bill Sweatt is a potential power forward, but unproven. Raffi Torres is a decent pickup for only 1 million. So far, so good but let's see what happens with injuries.

Washington -- some resignings, but nothing much to speak of. Let's see if they can cope after that collapse.

Interesting, eh? That was done July 12th, 2010...well before most trades and signings had really been finalized. What else could happen in the coming weeks?

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Always an optimist, never the realist.

My wife and I have a funny relationship. I'm eternally the one that sheds the 'realistic light' on everything we do, while she's constantly optimistic and idealistic; she sees the 'inherent good' in everyone, while I'm always on the lookout so that we're not being scammed or taken advantage of.

Not sure how that relates to hockey blogging? I can explain that.

When it comes to sports, I'm always the optimist. Sometimes, though rarely, I can be easily defeated and come across as 'Mr. Black Mood' when my team isn't working well. This season, I've tried really hard to support my team in each respective sport and to do so without the defeatist attitude. It's been tough, let me tell you.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are showing signs of wear and tear that are typical this time of the year when you're not in a playoff position. Often, teams that are desperate to get into a better position or to win their division will cast a glance at their remaining schedule or find themselves scoreboard watching. Playing against teams currently in playoff positions is not as favourable as playing teams who are in the bottom three in the conference. The Leafs are playing far more teams who are in a solid position, and can't expect too many 'gimmes.'

They've played some bad games lately, most recently a total stinker in Toronto against Tampa. Reimer looked ordinary, something we haven't seen from the kid yet, and Toronto's defense looked as if they'd forgotten that it was a 7PM start.

The Leafs now need to get 10 wins from their final 12 games, and hope that they get a little bit of help along the way. Thus far, they haven't got it, with one saving grace (read: exception) being a nice 3-2 win against Buffalo on Saturday night.

In a recent interview, Gary Roberts mentioned that the Leafs would often win those big Saturday night games and then come out on Monday and lay down a massive egg. In that sense, it's happening again. What makes Saturday night games more important than the Monday nighters? Realistically, we can't say that the two games they played had any more significance than the other. A loss is a loss, and at this point it's losses that count for more than wins because any more than two losses and their playoff flames are officially extinguished.

In other Leafs news, Matt Lashoff looks to be making his first start with the senior club after being signed from Tampa in the off-season. Likewise, a 3 year deal was signed with Jake Gardiner, whom we acquired in the Lupul-for-Beauchemin deal. He's at the University of Wisconsin right now, putting up huge points for defenseman (40 points in 41GP). Burke will have him report directly to the Marlies and he'll play the rest of the season there, including the playoffs which will give him a great taste of what the big club can offer. With the Leafs not likely to make the playoffs, the Marlies look to get a few more people at their games for those who are starved for playoff hockey.

Anyway, that's about all the news that is relevant to the Toronto Maple Leafs. I'd like to see an improved effort in Carolina, but I understand that two teams of the same calibre are going to be in an all out battle. Toronto can only hope to win and then get some help.

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Dream or Nightmare?

Unsure of what to think about the Leafs' chances of making it into the playoffs this year? Me too.

Results have stopped going our way as of late. Toronto has had destiny in its own hands as long as it continues to win, but a loss against the Blackhawks in tandem with results in other barns that didn't coalesce well with the Leafs moving up from 10 spot, has left the playoff surge without power.

A stupid, stupid overtime loss to the Islanders has really puffed out any last dregs of reality that remained and most Leaf fans and supporters will be looking at the free agent market and the likelihood of passing a top 6 pick on to Boston.

A loss to the Hawks is understandable. They are the defending champs and their team is still loaded with talent despite the fact that the majority of their character players now live and work in Atlanta. Chicago's top six forwards are the envy of most in the league, and they made Toronto work harder than most of the opponents before them.

The Leafs continue to give up soft goals, to make bad passes that are practically telegraphed for opposing forwards coming out of the defensive zone, and have displayed poor neutral zone play. Fixing that and not relying solely on a rookie goaltender who has managed to keep them in or around the win column for the past 10 weeks isn't cutting it. They must be better.

The Islanders game would have been viewed by most as imminently winnable, a phrase I like to throw around from time to time because it deals with the realities of facing clubs that are in a more vulnerable position, versus those who are in a true playoff battle and racing against time and form to have home ice advantage or avoid a tougher first round opponent.

Regardless of results and scoreboard watching, the Leafs have about a 10% chance of making the playoffs despite the fact that they have played well lately.

Toronto's next match is against Philly, who are officially off the schneid and will be looking to stay ahead of the Penguins that are suddenly learning how to play without their stars.

In other notes, I'd like to say a brief word about the Pacioretty/Chara incident. I saw it, and from what I can see it's just Chara finishing his check and Pacioretty had two things going against him: his speed at the time, and the size and strength of Chara. Lessen either one of the two and suddenly you're not looking at a concussion, but a couple of games in the press box with 'upper body soreness.'

In the meantime, enjoy the hockey that comes your way. Most games have a playoff atmosphere to them, especially in the West where the brand of hockey played is better quality. In particular I would suggest watching or finding a live stream for Chicago vs. Tampa, Detroit vs. Los Angeles, or Calgary vs. Dallas.

Have a nice evening.

Friday, March 4, 2011

Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

The Toronto Maple Leafs probably have more to gain from a top five draft pick in the upcoming entry draft this June, but the likelihood of a lottery pick is getting slimmer by the day.

Last night, the Toronto Maple Leafs demonstrated exactly what happens when a conference-leading, Stanley Cup favourite decides to 'mail it in' for a game, against a lesser opponent. Make no mistake: the Flyers are a much better team than the Leafs, and they are built for a playoff run to the end. These Leafs just aren't making life easy for anyone at the moment, at home or on the road.

So the Leafs walked into the Wells Fargo Center and walked back out three hours later with a hard-fought two points, and a victory that takes them up to 10th in the East, only one point behind Buffalo and three points behind the Rangers for that elusive 8th and final playoff spot. But what does this really mean for the club?

Well, if the season finished today, the Leafs would still be the richest team in the league and would have the 9th overall pick in the first round Fed-exed to the Boston Bruins. At this point it's never good to have a first round pick out of your possession, but at this stage in the rebuild and with the roll the Leafs are on, most pundits and managers alike would still take Phil Kessel over Seguin and whomever is drafted 9th.

Burke rolled his dice for the first time last year when he took control and brought in several high-profile free agents. It didn't work, and half of the men he brought in to do a Philadelphia Flyers-style rebound have now been led to new pastures. However, if Burke is to continue building around a fast, hard-working core there really isn't a better player than Phil Kessel upon which to start. MacArthur would be a second, Grabovski a third. Kulemin has shown that he's got top-six potential, and with Aulie and Gunnarsson not doing too badly in their big time call-ups, Burke has fewer decisions to make from April to June -- providing he's not setting lineups for the playoffs in mid-April.

The only worrying prospect if you're a Leaf supporter that desperately wants to see playoff hockey in April, is the optics of Buffalo having two games in hand, and being one point ahead in the standings. Sure, anyone can point to the Leafs having to face Buffalo twice before the season ends but that pales in comparison to the other matches they have coming up against Eastern counterparts with designs on post-season glory. Take, for example, the game this Tuesday against the Islanders in Long Island. What would have been a grudge match to see who winds up in the basement of the East two months ago, is now a chance for the Islanders to sew shut the Leafs mouths and end their playoff hopes. Fast-forward one calendar week to Wednesday, March the 16th when the Leafs begin a brief, two-game sojourn against the Hurricanes, before playing the second game the very next night against the also-ran Panthers. Both of those games are four-pointers, with the loser set to book tee times and the winner on the up and looking at 7th or 8th seed.

The most interesting games to me, fall inside the last two weeks of the season when only 6 or 7 games remain. Teams guaranteed to make the playoffs, but not guaranteed to win the conference will rest players and put forth a squad rotation of sorts. It is highly unlikely that Boston will play all of its banged-up stars on the 19th or even more likely on the 31st of March. Or the Red Wings, on the 26th of March who will be looking to sew up their division ahead of the Chicago Blackhawks. Will we see Datsyuk, Holmstrom and Zetterberg in that game, or will they be rested in favour of insurance that they are healthy going into the post season? The Capitols will be in a similar position in early April when they come to town. In their poor division, it's entirely likely that they will have sewn up a home-playoff seed with a couple of games to spare, and so the likes of Ovechkin and Backstrom could see the press box rather than the active bench.

At the end of the day, the Leafs don't have it all in their own hands. They will need to continue their stellar play, and work at a .625 winning clip if they are to move into one of those final spots and own it. I see several matches coming up that could provide a stern test, not the least of which will be a grudge match against the Flyers whom they could face in the first round of the playoffs. Or will it be the Bruins, whom they face off against twice before the regular season ends? Either way, it's nice to see story lines emerging and rivalries intensifying as things go forward.

One wonders, just for a moment, where the Leafs would be had they not been so profligate in front of goal against the Senators just a week ago, or had they held their lead against the Penguins instead of losing 6-5 in the shootout. These days, 3 points would take them to 7th and the optics of 7th with 17 games to go is a lot more positive than 10th with 17 games to go.

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There's nothing I love more than hockey in the early Spring. There's just something about watching conference heavyweights, whether they be from the East or the West coming together to play and play hard. Nearly a dozen minutes can go by without a whistle and nary a penalty can be had. Clubs that have finished fighting for the playoffs and have successfully attained a berth with games to spare can really put on a tantalizing show for supporters and neutrals alike.

On the flip side of such a match-up would be the clubs that use these final games as a chance to call up some young talent from their AHL equivalent. Ottawa is currently using their final games as a showcase for their drafted talent, or players they have acquired through a trade. Anderson is putting on a clinic for all former and future goaltenders if you haven't been watching. The Islanders are playing like a team released from the clutches of an anal-retentive dominatrix. Like that imagery?

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To complete my Toronto notes, let's take a moment to mention James Reimer. Once again, stellar from minute one to minute sixty. He's playing beyond his years and has inspired confidence from his defensemen all the way through to the veterans up front. The coach and GM have him pencilled in as at least the backup goalie for next year, and with major uncertainty around JS Giguere's contract and inconsistencies, not to mention Gustavsson's health issues and overall sloppy play it is starting to look like 'Optimus Reim' could be around the big club to stay.

Versteeg coming back to bite the Leafs for two goals isn't a surprise, and anyone who was shocked that he jumped out and bagged a couple should take a good hard look at their hockey knowledge. In most sports, players who are traded to another team often come back to their original club and score, play brilliantly or at least contribute to its downfall. It was inevitable. I would have picked Versteeg to get at least one point last night and be an overall plus player. Regardless, he was outshone by the hard work of Darryl Boyce, of Kulemin, and even Keith Aulie who was a +2 overall, despite being culpable for one of the Flyers goals. That's just inexperience, something that will surely be eradicated over time. Starting to look like a good trade in Toronto's favour, eh?

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Can we just say one thing about the 30 clubs overall? Does anyone in the East have a better overall team concept defensively and offensively than the Boston Bruins? Their two goaltenders are the best in the league, hands down. They have a bonafide starter and terrific backup. They have a very solid defensive core and just the right amount of young talent up front, grinders and physical role players, and a smattering of super-talent on their top two lines. Sure Philadelphia looks better from a depth perspective, but after facing the Leafs last night their aging blue liners looked a little exhausted chasing around the super-quick top two Leafs lines. Add to that, the statistic that backs me up -- they've been outscored something like 11-4 in the 3rd period in the past 5 or 6 games. That's not good news going into the playoffs where the fresher you are, the better your chances of winning. I know that O'Donnell and Pronger are seasoned and experienced veterans, but do you get the feeling that they are a little tired right about now? What about Timonen, too?

Now, take that little ditty I just wrote about Boston and copy/paste the Vancouver Canucks into that paragraph. Ditto for their 12 forwards, their top 6 defensemen who are getting better and healthier with each passing day, and their goal tending which is rarely out-dueled. It's not just experience that wins the Stanley Cup and takes your team from above-average to great; it's the right mixture of youth, talent and of course, the perfect understudy to your #1 stud goalie. Vancouver has it, Boston has it.

The Flyers also have serious question marks over their goalies, which really makes writing this redundant because pundits were asking the same questions last year and it wound up with them in the Stanley Cup final. This time around, there's no Michael Leighton to jump into the lineup and immediately gain the confidence of those around him. Everyone is a year older, with higher expectations and a loss earlier than the Stanley Cup final will likely see some 'rebuilding' occur come June.

Another major dark horse (if you can ever call them that) would be San Jose. They're always up there competing for the Presidents Trophy and the Art Ross seems to be something that one or more of their players flirt with season to season. They have some solid goaltending right now, and it's that man, Niemi coming back to the fray. Amazing to see him getting hot again in March, preparing to lead his team into a long playoff run. I, for one, would love to see the Sharks get a monkey off their backs. Wouldn't that be a great series, Canucks and Sharks? Think of the blood and guts you'd see, Niemi vs. Luongo, Thornton and Marleau vs. the Sedins. Just thinking about it makes me want to fast-forward eight weeks and see what happens.

So what was an attempt at a quick entry has now become an epic. If only I put this much effort into cleaning the house....

Thursday, March 3, 2011

....and we're right back in it.

The last two games have been underwhelming to say the least. From a Leafs point of view, watching Buffalo continue their hot streak and beating teams to extend their lead, and even the Florida Panthers win despite their senior team being dismantled on trade deadline day, well...that stings a little bit too.

The Leafs have managed to step up when nobody claimed they could. Probably the team itself didn't believe that it had the gall to turn it up a notch when the most important quarter of the season rolled around. Yet, here they are in the thick of it.

Last night's battle against the Penguins was a chance to get some redemption for the shoot-out loss they suffered on the weekend. In fact, it was also a chance to prove that their defensive game plan isn't a total sham, because allowing five goals doesn't exactly scream 'playoff calibre.'

The game started in typical fashion with the Leafs going a goal behind. It looked as if it may be a death knell at this point in the season, and that the Leafs would fold and start to revert to type. Fortunately for coach Ron Wilson, and for the likes of James Reimer who is attempting to single-handedly keep his team in the playoff picture, the Leafs found a way to win.

The game last night puts us four points back of Carolina, and two points back of 9th placed Buffalo. Unfortunately, and this is the only big 'but' you'll see here, Buffalo does have two games in hand on the Leafs, meaning that when the season ends they could have two final chances to surpass Toronto, should the Leafs occupy a spot.

The West is still a complete mess, with teams 4 through 11 only separated by a few points. It's sad because I think it'll end up meaning that one or two teams that would be far more exciting will be on the sidelines watching from the bar, or the golf course. I would much rather see Anaheim and Nashville in the playoffs than Calgary and Dallas. I don't think the two of them have truly earned a playoff berth, and I'd like to see how far Nashville can go. Regardless, there is still 18-20 games left for each of the teams to stake a claim. If one or two of them get hot they could find themselves as division winners. That's how tight it is at the top.

The cream will always rise, that's for certain.

Other simple notes from last nights game:

Matt Niskanen looks good. I can't believe they got him WITH James Neal. He managed two points last night, increasing his overall point total this season by 20%. I do love the Penguins, so it's nice to see them starting to gel a little bit with Kovalev, Niskanen, and Neal. Neal just needs to find his scoring touch again, and not to be too overwhelmed by the playoffs when they come around.

Reimer. Wow. This kid is the real deal. After a couple of games, I was thinking that this could be shades of JS Aubin, who, if you'll remember, came in to play the final 12 games of the season about four or five years ago. He went something like 10-1-1, and put the Leafs in 9th spot. At the end of the day, it was nice to see some dominant and confident goaltending, despite the fact that it was a series of meaningless games. And that it cost us a likely top eight draft pick.

Back to the kid, though. He's 11-4-3 in his 20 starts. Can you believe that? It's unreal, really. He's a rookie right? Doesn't that mean that he should be up for rookie of the year, if he continues this over the next twenty games? What if he puts up 20 wins, or more, and his save percentage, currently at .929% and his 2.29GAA continue to go up, and down, respectively? Wow. Just think about it.

Two points for Grabovski. He's just about got our second line center position locked up, and as far as I'm concerned his play has earned it. Going into next season, his deal should be extended and his spot on the team is his to lose. With 48 points, and a +11 rating, that's something terrific.

Kessel continues to be hot. His linemates are doing well, too. Maybe that's all he was asking for? Versteeg leaves and suddenly the kid awakes.

Gunnarson with two assists last night, and a strong performance overall. He was a 7th round pick, so does that make him a success story? Let's see if he makes the team next season after Burke enters the UFA sweeps.

Next up: the likely conference winners for this season, or more spectacularly, the Leafs first round opponents in the playoffs -- The Philadelphia Flyers.

If we win this one, it's on. If they expose us as the playoff fodder we are....it could be a long ride home to Toronto.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

The first, and probably the best.

I've blogged for quite some time about soccer. That is, 'football' for the purists (read: elitists). I am taking a break from blogging about the beautiful game and have decided that my second-biggest sporting passion deserves a little bit more of my attention.

In opening this account and blogging my ideas, I think it is only fair to start with a bit of a preamble. I am a Toronto Maple Leafs fan/supporter/follower. They are the club I grew up with, the team of my father and the team that I will watch until the day that I die. Having said that, I have certain clubs, players and coaches that I happen to have an affinity for and so you'll sense a certain favouritism to them on some occasions. I'm terrible at hiding my biases so don't hold that against me as you read.

I don't care much about being added to a blog roll, to a news agency that promotes other armchair managers and their thoughts. I've done this sort of thing quite successfully since 2006 and I'm planning to continue without self-promotion or aggrandizing what this truly is: one mile of blogged text, in the middle of a million miles of cyber space.

It's the day after the trade deadline, and in NHL terms it means that the business end of the season is well and truly upon us. Most teams have been playing as if each game leads towards the championship, and for some teams that's the way it has to be.

The Leafs have a kind of 'purgatory' style standing at the moment: not close enough to the playoffs to be seriously excited, and not so close to the trapdoor at the bottom that leads to Boston getting a top five draft pick in the lottery, come June.

I'm happy right now because it looks as if Brian Burke has the club on its way to being a powerhouse again in the Eastern Conference. I think it'll lead to major success because he's building Toronto in the mold of a Western Conference team, with Eastern Conference flair. I think it'll make us a tough proposition to play against. Dale Tallon is doing the same with Florida, and the blueprint has this team defensively robust, with most players able to go two ways, and loads of drafted talent and undrafted college prospects.

Burke is a smart guy, and not unlike my favourite football club in England, they are led by a man who has a proven track record and someone who is well respected in his sporting community. 'In Burke We Trust' is written on the mantle at the moment.

With some players leaving and optimism about the UFA market for the coming summer, I think we may see some players who are currently mired/stuck/learning in the Marlies at the moment. We can't see too many as the rule past the trade deadline is that no more than four players can be brought up and sent back down. There are a few that deserve a look based on their play and their stats.

I'm not sure what's going to happen to Nazem Kadri this year, but his initial inclusion was a mistake. Last year, he had a great camp and then wasn't included, hurting his confidence. This year, he had a poor camp and then found himself inserted into the lineup and it didn't go very well, hurting his confidence. Burke probably felt that he was damned on both sides, and sent him down for the remainder of the season. At 6 feet and 180 pounds, he'll grow a little bit and gain some muscle training with the pros, and return to the club in the fall with a new lease on life. He managed 6 assists in 17 games with the big club, and was sent to the Marlies to be their star offensive player. In 37 games, he's got 36 points -- very good numbers at that level. He's also got an even +/- rating, which bodes well for his two-way game.
He's a centre which is a position where we are particularly weak. I'd like to see him up this year to fill in for John Mitchell, who has just departed for the Rangers. If he can put up 10 points in the final 20 games, he'll earn himself a place for next year on at least the third line.

Fabian Brunnstrom is another interesting piece of the minor league puzzle. He rode into Texas as one of the highest European free agents of recent times, and managed to do pretty well with 29 points in 55 games. Dallas would have thought he'd do better the second season in the league, but instead his production fell to 11 points in 44 games. In the minors this year for Texas, he scored 21 points in 37 games, which isn't bad but with his talent and skill set it should be more. For the Marlies, he's managed just 9 points in 20 games. He's a +4 for Texas, and a +4 for the Marlies too, meaning that at least his lines have been decent defensively. He's a left winger, someone to take a look at for the 3rd or fourth line next year.

Mike Zigomanis is somewhat well-traveled. He's played for Carolina, Pittsburgh, Phoenix and now Toronto. His numbers aren't terribly impressive, but it's his intangibles that bring success to his game. At the minor league level, he's just about unstoppable, compiling 119 points in 128 total games over the course of nearly 5 seasons. In 192 total NHL games, his totals are underwhelming, with only 40 points. His penalty killing and face off abilities are what keeps his value as a hockey player, and frankly I'm surprised that he hasn't been used more often this year. He's a free agent this summer, so if Burke wants him he should get on it! This year, he's got 40 points in 55 games for the Marlies.

Luca Caputi? Yes, he still exists. He hasn't been as effective as Burke would have hoped, however that's likely due to injury which has limited him to 7 games for the Leafs and 11 games for the Marlies. He was such an offensive juggernaut for all of his youth teams and even in the minors for the Pens organization, it seems unlikely that he'd move to Toronto and somehow fade off the map. With size and skill like his, it's only a matter of time until he starts to show his skills on the big stage. Another play that, when healthy, could really make an impact. Important to remember that he's 6 foot 3 with a 200 pound frame, and that's going to make him a little bit imposing even at the NHL level. Perhaps Burke is looking for a little more truculence?

Christian Hanson is another centreman that needs to find his scoring touch at the top level. He's managed 6 starts for the Leafs this year, not finding himself on the score sheet. However, at the minor league level he's been very good. The last two seasons, he's played 86 games and managed 61 points. This year, he has managed 30 points in 48 games, down a little bit from last year. At 6 foot 4, he's got size on his side as well and at 228 pounds he should be punishing opposing players.

Okay, well that's all for now. If the Leafs are truly going to make a run, they have to start with a win tomorrow night against Pittsburgh, a team who are in the playoffs and need to get some more healthy bodies in their organization. The Pens were exposed last time around as defensively inept, but the Leafs allowed them back into the game and let their explosive forwards take over the game.